Who will win New Zealand Election 2017, taking place on September 23? We make our projections throughout the campaign.
Bill English leads his governing National Party into the election. Despite having fought an election as leader before, he has yet to win one. That can change in September 2017, but Labour poses a strong challenge. They are led by Jacinda Ardern, a 37-year old MP who, coincidentally, represents the same electorate once held by Helen Clark and David Shearer. Ardern hopes to follow in Clark’s footsteps as the second female Labour prime minister.
New Zealand utilizes what’s known as the “mixed member proportional” (MMP) electoral system. Seats are then determined via the Sainte-Laguë allocation formula. Each New Zealand voter gets a constituency vote and a party list vote.
New Zealand Election 2017: RESULTS (Official, With Coalition)
The old saying goes “if you ain’t first, you’re last.” Unfortunately for the National Party, that did not hold true. They were first in the New Zealand election, but now find themselves in opposition. Winston Peters of New Zealand First sided with Jacinda Ardern and Labour, making Ardern the new prime minister.
This will be a bitter pill for National to swallow, having led Labour by ten seats and still failing to form government. Their defeat ultimately came because they had too few allies in the House of Representatives. Even though their 56 seats (down from the unofficial results) was still considered an achievement in the face of Labour’s rise, they probably needed to be on the doorstep of a majority. In the MMP system, such an outcome is not impossible, but highly difficult to achieve. As decent a time as election night seemed to be for National, it wasn’t decent enough.
Ultimately, Labour was able to build the coalition and National wasn’t. The nation was held in suspense for weeks, but the government fell. All Bill English is left with now is a strong opposition seat total.
New Zealand Election 2017: RESULTS (Unofficial)
We overestimated Labour by six seats, and in turn underestimated National by six. At least we caught on to the late move back to National, but it was bigger than some polls expected. At 58 seats, National is clearly the largest party in the House of Representatives again.
The thing is, Labour can still put together a majority with New Zealand First and the Greens. It could be a hard sell to New Zealanders, however, with National having finished as far ahead as they did. Yet, that is how the system works, and both National and Labour will try to seek government.
Did “Jacindamania” fizzle out, or was it a media construct? Electoral postmortems will reveal that in due time. Whatever the case may be, National must be very pleased.
New Zealand Election 2017: Final Prediction
New Zealand Election 2017: Current Election Analysis, September 21
The New Zealand election is a few days away, and soon, the campaign ceases. If you believe the latest TVNZ-Colmar Brunton poll, and a lot of people do, the Jacindamania tide has been halted. Now, this is one poll against a wave of momentum for Labour, but the news is not getting worse for Bill English. At least, not today.
In our forecast, we have the vote on almost an even split between National and Labour. This produces a result where National is one seat ahead. Looking at the coalition math, however, you see how difficult this will be for Bill English. He has to get four parties involved just to stitch together a bare majority. For Jacinda Ardern, it’s easier with three, and the majority would be bigger.
For National to have a real chance at forming a government, they probably need to win at least 53 or 54 seats. Further, and just as importantly, Labour needs to be several behind them. If they’re close or tied, Labour will have the friendly parliamentary partners to put together a governing coalition.
New Zealand Election 2017: Detailed Current Prediction
In our current prediction, the Nationals control 52 seats (-7) and Labour wins 51 (+19). The Greens are the third-largest part in the House of Representatives with eight seats (-6). New Zealand first is in fourth with seven (-5), but an important fourth as they may be the kingmakers.
The Maori Party trails on one (-1) and ACT on one (even) close the field. United Future is still knocked out of Parliament.
The major party vote share value entered into the Sainte-Laguë formula are National 42.2 percent and Labour 42.0 percent.
New Zealand Election 2017: Past Analysis, September 15
What a difference a few seats make. With a small swing of seats from the Nationals to Labour, Labour becomes the largest party in our projections. Not only that, but they’re the only party that can do a realistic coalition. If Jacinda Ardern roped in New Zealand First, they would be at 61 seats, which is a bare majority of one. With the Greens’ cooperation, that’s a comfortable majority.
As for the National Party, at 50 seats, they don’t have enough coalition partners to form a government. If they picked up New Zealand First, that’s 58. ACT gives them 59. Even if somehow the Maori Party worked with them, that’s 60. That’s as high as they can go, since the Greens will not play ball with them.
With a little over a week to go, the likelihood increases that Jacinda Ardern will be the next prime minister. Labour has the momentum and it shows. Yet, not all of the polls are in agreement, and a small swing could bring Bill English back.
New Zealand Election 2017: Past Analysis, September 6
Opinion polls have narrowed considerably over the course of the New Zealand election campaign. Jacinda Ardern leads Labour to the brink of government. Bill English is a second time leader of the National Party, and this time, he has the benefit of incumbency. It might not matter if the trends continue in this direction. In a way, he’s not even the big story in this campaign.
Ardern connects with voters in ways that the last several Labour leaders did not. They call it “Jacindamania” — at least, that’s what the New York Times calls it. Coupled with the National Party in power for nine years, this could be a growing change in mood for New Zealand.
Ordinarily, we would say it remains to be seen if the Jacinda Ardern honeymoon will continue. Yet, only three weeks remain in the campaign. No reason it can’t.
New Zealand Election 2017: Supporting Links
The New Zealand Electoral Commission is the high and mighty authority of all things elections in the country. For an election calculator using the mixed member proportional system and the Sainte-Laguë formula, click here.
In print media, the New Zealand Herald is all over the poll.