Which seats are at the most danger of flipping to another party in Nova Scotia Election 2017?
The governing Liberals seem to have halted their freefall in the opinion polls, and two weeks out, another majority seems likely. Nevertheless, the opposition Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats can carve into Stephen McNeil’s majority.
21 seats out of 51 were decided by a margin of less than ten percent in 2013. The Liberal landslide helped deliver nine of those into the red column. Fourteen seats saw a margin of five percent or less: six Liberal wins, five NDP, and three PC. Even a swing of a few points in any direction could shift a dozen seats. This could expand or even strip the Liberal majority.
Nova Scotia Election 2017: Most Vulnerable Liberal Seats
Of the top ten most at-risk Liberal seats, nine were decided by a single-digit margin. The top five saw margins of victory under four percent. It was these narrow victories that helped make the Liberal victory four years ago appear more impressive. Now, as government, they have to defend seats like Cole Harbour-Portland Valley, which they took from the NDP by just 21 votes.
Another Cole Harbour seat, Cole Harbour-Eastern passage, was a 143-vote Liberal win in 2013. It took a 25.7-percent swing to wrest this seat away from the NDP, and this will be a top target in 2017.
Antigonish is the tenth-most vulnerable Liberal seat, one that they won by 11 points last time. With a majority of over 1,000 votes there, it may take a better-than-expected night for the Progressive Conservatives to win.
Nova Scotia Election 2017: 12 Tightest Seats From 2013
Kings North, a Progressive Conservative Seat, was decided by 21 votes just like Cole Harbour-Portland Valley. This was the closest three-way race in the province last time, with the three parties separated by only 116 votes. It will not take much to tip the scales now, and there are candidates from the Green and Atlantica parties running.
Sackville-Cobequid was one of the few seats the NDP retained in 2013. Even at that, they won by 85 votes over the Liberals. This would be a huge steal for the Liberals if they overcome that deficit, given that only the NDP has won it since 1993.
Chester-St. Margaret’s was another close, three-way race. The NDP won over the PCs by 148 votes, but the Liberals lost by just under 400 themselves. Two parties will have a chance at a pickup in this South Shore riding. The NDP have held it since 2009, but it was Tory blue for ten years prior and most of the last 50 years earlier.