Nova Scotia votes tonight in their provincial election. We now make our final Nova Scotia Election Predictions 2017 on who wins, who loses, and most importantly, who governs.
The Liberal government of Premier Stephen McNeil swept to office in a landslide four years ago. Since 2013, the Liberals have had their peaks and valleys, but ultimately lead in the opinion polls. Their lead is such that another majority is in range, but reduction may happen.
That advantage remained steady through the latter stages of the campaign. Based on those figures, it is safe to assume that the Liberals are first, the Progressive Conservatives are second, and the NDP is in third. The question is if the opposition can cobble together an additional eight seats to deny the Liberals another majority.
Nova Scotia Election Predictions 2017: Final Vote Projection
Based on an average of the most recent opinion polls, with a little bit of room for variation, we arrived at the Liberals just passing 40 percent. We are perhaps a tiny bit more pessimistic about the PC vote share than the public surveys, but only by a small amount. After weeks of giving the NDP a little more credit, we’ve notched them down, tapped the Greens forward, and gave the rest back to the Liberals.
40 percent is a reasonable outcome for the Liberals based on the latest opinion polling. It would, however, be a drop of about six points from the 2013 election. The only major party for which we project a gain are the PCs, who took 26.3 percent last time. Finally, the Green Party may gain about two percent of vote share, but this will not position them in any seats.
Nova Scotia Election Predictions 2017: Final Seat Prediction
All told, we have the Progressive Conservatives on a gain of five seats. The Liberals lose four, which is not enough to cost them a majority. Further, the NDP loses a seat.
The Liberal seats in the most danger to Tory hands are: Victoria-The Lakes, Cumberland North, Antigonish, Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank, and Hants West (PC incumbent crossed the floor to the Liberals).
Electionarium will be all over Twitter tonight with the results as they come in. Follow us @Electionarium.