Ontario Election 2018 Predictions and Results

Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives ousted the Liberals after 15 years in power.

Ontario Election 2018

Here are the Ontario Election 2018 predictions and results on Electionarium. This is where we make our picks on who forms the next government at Queen’s Park in Toronto.

The Liberal Party, currently led by incumbent Premier Kathleen Wynne, has been in power for 15 years, but opinion polls suggest their reign could soon come to an end. As for the opposition Progressive Conservatives, their last few months leading to the election have been tumultuous to say the least. They replaced their party leader prior to the election, yet entered the spring with a commanding lead in the polls.

Election day is June 7, 2018. This is expected to be the first of three provincial/territorial elections in Canada this year, with the others in Quebec and New Brunswick. Other Canadian elections can be seen at that particular page.

Ontario Election 2018 Party Leaders (Major)

Liberal (Lib) Kathleen Wynne
Progressive Conservative (PC) Doug Ford
New Democratic (NDP) Andrea Horwath
Green (GPO) Mike Schreiner
Trillium (TPO) Bob Yaciuk

Ontario Election 2018 Results: Progressive Conservative Majority

Ontario Election 2018 Results

With 40.6 percent of the vote, the Progressive Conservatives cruised to their first election victory in almost 20 years. Doug Ford led the PCs to 76 seats, easily a majority, against the NDP’s 40. The New Democrats took 33.69 percent and received their highest vote total in Ontario election history.

As good as the night was for the PCs, and to an extent to NDP, it was bad for the Liberals. With seven seats, they have lost official party status, and have their lowest seat count ever in an Ontario provincial election. They claimed just 19.3 percent of the vote, taking voter punishment after 15 years in power.

Finally, the Greens got on the board, winning their first-ever seat in Guelph.

The Progressive Conservatives did about as well as we expected, while the NDP underperformed a little and the Liberals overperformed a bit. I doubt the Liberals would consider what they did “overperforming,” but seven is better than what could have been. One wonders how much Kathleen Wynne’s concession plea saved them in the final days.

Ontario Election 2018 Results: Votes and Seat Changes

Ontario Election 2018 Results-Votes

Ontario Election 2018 Results-Seat Change

Ontario Election 2018 Seat-by-Seat Prediction vs. Final Results

Accuracy: 87.9%

OTTAWA Seats Held By Predict Actual
Carleton New Seat PC Win PC Win
Kanata-Carleton MacLaren (TPO) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Nepean MacLeod (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Orléans Lalonde (Lib) PC GAIN Lib Hold
Ottawa Centre Naqvi (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Ottawa South Fraser (Lib) PC GAIN Lib Hold
Ottawa-Vanier Des Rosiers (Lib) Lib Hold Lib Hold
Ottawa West-Nepean Chiarelli (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN

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EASTERN ONTARIO Seats Held By Predict Actual
Bay of Quinte Smith (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Crack (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Hastings-Lennox and Addington New Seat PC Win PC Win
Kingston and the Islands Kiwala (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston Hillier (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes Clark (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke Yakabuski (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry McDonell (PC) PC Hold PC Hold

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CENTRAL ONTARIO Seats Held By Predict Actual
Barrie-Innisfil Hoggarth (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte New Seat PC Win PC Win
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound Walker (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Dufferin-Caledon Jones (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Scott (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Northumberland-Peterborough South Rinaldi (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Peterborough-Kawartha Leal (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Simcoe-Grey Wilson (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Simcoe North OPEN (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
York-Simcoe OPEN (PC) PC Hold PC Hold

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905 Seats Held By Predict Actual
Ajax Dickson (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill New District PC Win PC Win
Brampton Centre New District NDP Win NDP Win
Brampton East New Distict NDP Win NDP Win
Brampton North Malhi (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Brampton South New District NDP Win PC Win
Brampton West Dhillon (Lib) NDP GAIN PC GAIN
Durham Anderson (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
King—Vaughan New District PC Win PC Win
Markham—Stouffville Jaczek (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Markham—Thornhill New District PC Win PC Win
Markham—Unionville Chan (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Mississauga Centre New District PC Win PC Win
Mississauga East—Cooksville Damerla (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Mississauga—Erin Mills Takhar (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Mississauga—Lakeshore Sousa (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Mississauga—Malton Mangat (Lib) NDP GAIN PC GAIN
Mississauga—Streetsville Delaney (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Newmarket—Aurora Ballard (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Oshawa French (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Pickering—Uxbridge MacCharles (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Richmond Hill Moridi (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Thornhill Martow (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Vaughan—Woodbridge Del Duca (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Whitby Coe (PC) PC Hold PC Hold

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TORONTO Seats Held By Predict Actual
Beaches—East York Potts (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Davenport Martins (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Don Valley East Coteau (Lib) Lib Hold Lib Hold
Don Valley North New District PC Win PC Win
Don Valley West Wynne (Lib) PC GAIN Lib Hold
Eglinton—Lawrence Colle (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Etobicoke Centre Baker (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Etobicoke North Qaadri (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Etobicoke—Lakeshore Milczyn (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Humber River—Black Creek Sergio (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Parkdale—High Park Vacant (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Scarborough Centre Duguid (Lib) NDP GAIN PC GAIN
Scarborough North Cho (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Scarborough Southwest Berardinetti (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Scarborough—Agincourt Wong (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Scarborough—Guildwood Hunter (Lib) PC GAIN Lib Hold
Scarborough—Rouge Park New District NDP Win PC Win
Spadina—Fort York Dong (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Toronto Centre Vacant (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Toronto—Danforth Tabuns (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Toronto—St. Paul’s Vacant (Lib) Lib Hold NDP GAIN
University—Rosedale New District NDP Win NDP Win
Willowdale Zimmer (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
York Centre Kwinter (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
York South—Weston Albanese (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN

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HAMILTON-NIAGARA Seats Held By Predict Actual
Burlington McMahon (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Flamborough—Glanbrook New District PC Win PC Win
Hamilton Centre Horwath (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Miller (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Hamilton Mountain Taylor (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas McMeekin (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Milton Naidoo-Harris (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Niagara Centre Forster (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Niagara Falls Gates (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Niagara West Oosterhoff (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Oakville Flynn (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Oakville North—Burlington New District PC Win PC Win
St. Catharines Bradley (Lib) PC GAIN NDP GAIN

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MIDWEST ONTARIO Seats Held By Predict Actual
Brantford—Brant Levac (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Cambridge McGarry (Lib) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Guelph Sandals (Lib) GRN GAIN GRN GAIN
Haldimand—Norfolk Barrett (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Huron—Bruce Thompson (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Kitchener Centre Vernile (Lib) PC GAIN NDP GAIN
Kitchener—Conestoga Harris (Ind) PC GAIN PC GAIN
Kitchener South—Hespeler New District PC Win PC Win
Oxford Hardeman (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Perth—Wellington Pettapiece (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Waterloo Fife (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Wellington—Halton Hills Arnott (PC) PC Hold PC Hold

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SOUTHWEST ONTARIO Seats Held By Predict Actual
Chatham-Kent—Leamington Nicholls (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Elgin—Middlesex—London Yurek (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Essex Natyshak (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex McNaughton (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
London—Fanshawe Armstrong (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
London North Centre Matthews (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
London West Sattler (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Sarnia—Lambton Bailey (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Windsor—Tecumseh Hatfield (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Windsor West Gretzky (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold

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NORTHERN ONTARIO Seats Held By Predict Actual
Algoma—Manitoulin Mantha (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Kenora—Rainy River Campbell (NDP) NDP Hold PC GAIN
Kiiwetinong New District NDP Win NDP Win
Mushkegowuk—James Bay New District NDP Win NDP Win
Nickel Belt Gélinas (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Nipissing Fedeli (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Parry Sound—Muskoka Miller (PC) PC Hold PC Hold
Sault Ste. Marie Romano (PC) NDP GAIN PC Hold
Sudbury Thibeault (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Thunder Bay—Atikokan Mauro (Lib) NDP GAIN NDP GAIN
Thunder Bay—Superior North Gravelle (Lib) NDP GAIN Lib Hold
Timiskaming—Cochrane Vanthof (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold
Timmins Bisson (NDP) NDP Hold NDP Hold

Ontario Election 2018 Prediction: Final, June 5, 2018

Ontario Election 2018 Prediction Final 6-5-18

Ontario Election 2018 Analysis: Final Pre-Election Analysis, June 5, 2018

Here we were building up that we were going to have a significant change in our forecast and — we didn’t. The PCs still come in at 75 in our final prediction, but the big change is the NDP’s further rise. They will be at least the second-largest party in the Ontario Legislature, and whichever party is in second will have a wide gap over third.

It is clear the NDP will make significant gains. The Liberal vote has collapsed and while we have them at three seats, anything in the single digits makes sense. Either way, they are going from majority government to a virtual wipeout a la Kim Campbell in 1993. Kathleen Wynne admitted as much, and she is not wrong.

The NDP’s problem is that the PCs are going to probably gain more. 75 might be a bit of a robust prediction when the dust settles, but what it came down to was the PCs holding steady in areas where you wouldn’t think the NDP would clean up, like Midwest Ontario. What could swing the final result is if some of those Toronto suburban seats begin waffling. Otherwise, the PCs will clean up in Central Ontario and win enough in Toronto and the 905 to get over the finish line.

The worst-case scenario would seem to be a seat total in the low 60s for Doug Ford’s party, which is very close to the NDP’s best-case scenario. 63 is needed for a majority, and in a really good night for them, the NDP could get there, but only just barely. It’s a higher ceiling for the PCs and barring a big tactical vote by Liberal voters, Doug Ford will win a majority.

Ontario Election 2018 Analysis: Previously, May 16, 2018

There is very little change in the bottom line of the Ontario election prediction: the Progressive Conservatives are on track for a commanding win. We only dropped three seats off of their total from the first wave of predictions, but 75 seats still means a substantial majority.

It’s the action on the opposition benches that is more interesting. The NDP has overtaken the Liberals for second place such to a degree that the government will be reduced to a rump party. Granted, we had the NDP slightly ahead of the Liberals on the last count, but now, Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals may get just 13 seats. A government getting wiped out in an election is not unheard of in Canadian politics, so another tick downward in the polls could mean electoral oblivion the way things are going.

Ontario Election 2018 Analysis: Previously, April 16, 2018

Ontario Election 2018 opened with a bang with Doug Ford becoming the Progressive Conservative leader. It was suspected that the PCs would lose some steam electing a controversial figure, but in fact, their lead in the polls has held firm. The province of Ontario has had a Liberal government for 15 years, and eventually, the voters decide it’s time for a change. We are staring square in the face of a Tory landslide.

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