Canada Election 2019 - Ontario

What will the Ontario federal election 2019 results hold for the province and Canada at large?

If you can’t be honest with yourselves, at least be honest with us: Ontario will decide the 2019 Canadian federal election. Whether it’s Justin Trudeau and the Liberals or Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives, or Jagmeet Singh, Elizabeth May, or Yves-François Blanchet get to be kingmakers, it relies on Ontario and its 121 seats. Over one-third of the Canadian House of Commons comes from Ontario, and if a party wins a majority, it tends to go big in favour of its winner.

Last time, the Liberals painted Ontario red, wiping out dozens of Conservative seats as the Stephen Harper government ended. If the Liberals are fated to lose their majority, as some opinion polls suggest, it will be reflected very clearly in Ontario. It will not vary too far from the national result as a whole.

Therefore, it goes without saying that this will be a province receiving heavy focus during the campaign. You can see below how we think those 121 critical seats will go, or see how the rest of the provinces stack up.

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Ontario Federal Election 2019 Seat-by-Seat Predictions

Ottawa

Carleton
Pierre Poilievre (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Kanata—Carleton
Karen McCrimmon (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Nepean
Chandra Arya (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Orléans
Andrew Leslie (Lib) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Ottawa Centre
Catherine McKenna (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Ottawa South
David McGuinty (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Ottawa—Vanier
Mona Fortier (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Ottawa West—Nepean
Anita Vandenbeld (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Eastern Ontario

Bay of Quinte
Neil Ellis (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Francis Drouin (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Mike Bossio (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Kingston and the Islands
Mark Gerretsen (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston
Scott Reid (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
Michael Barrett (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
Cheryl Gallant (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Guy Lauzon (CPC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC Hold

Central Ontario

Barrie—Innisfil
John Brassard (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte
Alex Nuttall (CPC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC Hold
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
Larry Miller (CPC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC Hold
Dufferin—Caledon
David Tilson (CPC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC Hold
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
Jamie Schmale (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Kim Rudd (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Peterborough—Kawartha
Maryam Monsef (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Simcoe—Grey
Kellie Leitch (CPC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC Hold
Simcoe North
Bruce Stanton (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
York—Simcoe
Scot Davidson (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold

Durham & York

Ajax
Mark Holland (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
Leona Alleslev (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Durham
Erin O’Toole (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
King—Vaughan
Deb Schulte (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Markham—Stouffville
Jane Philpott (Ind)
Prediction: Ind Hold
Markham—Thornhill
Mary Ng (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Markham—Unionville
Bob Saroya (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Newmarket—Aurora
Kyle Peterson (Lib) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Oshawa
Colin Carrie (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Pickering—Uxbridge
Jennifer O’Connell (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Richmond Hill
Majid Jowhari (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Thornhill
Peter Kent (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Vaughan—Woodbridge
Francesco Sorbara (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Whitby
Celina Caesar-Chavannes (Ind) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib GAIN from Ind

Toronto Suburbs

Don Valley East
Yasmin Ratansi (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Don Valley North
Geng Tan (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Etobicoke Centre
Borys Wrzesnewskyj (Lib) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
James Maloney (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Etobicoke North
Kirsty Duncan (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Humber River—Black Creek
Judy Sgro (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Scarborough—Agincourt
Jean Yip (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Scarborough Centre
Salma Zahid (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Scarborough—Guildwood
John McKay (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Scarborough North
Shaun Chen (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Scarborough—Rouge Park
Gary Anandasangaree (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Scarborough Southwest
Bill Blair (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Willowdale
Ali Ehsassi (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
York Centre
Michael Levitt (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Toronto

Beaches—East York
Nathaniel Erskine-Smith (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Davenport
Julie Dzerowicz (Lib)
Prediction: NDP GAIN from Lib
Don Valley West
Rob Oliphant (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Eglinton—Lawrence
Marco Mendicino (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Parkdale—High Park
Arif Virani (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Spadina—Fort York
Adam Vaughan (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Toronto Centre
Bill Morneau (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Toronto—Danforth
Julie Dabrusin (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Toronto—St. Paul’s
Carolyn Bennett (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
University—Rosedale
Chrystia Freeland (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
York South—Weston
Ahmed Hussen (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Brampton, Mississauga, & Oakville

Brampton Centre
Ramesh Sangha (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Brampton East
Raj Grewal (Ind)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from Ind
Brampton North
Ruby Sahota (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Brampton South
Sonia Sidhu (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Brampton West
Kamal Khera (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Mississauga Centre
Omar Alghabra (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Mississauga East—Cooksville
Peter Fonseca (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Mississauga—Erin Mills
Iqra Khalid (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Mississauga—Lakeshore
Sven Spengemann (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Mississauga—Malton
Navdeep Bains (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Mississauga—Streetsville
Gagan Sikand (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Oakville
John Oliver (Lib) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Oakville North—Burlington
Pam Damoff (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Hamilton, Burlington, & Niagara

Burlington
Karina Gould (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Flamborough—Glanbrook
David Sweet (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Hamilton Centre
David Christopherson (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
Bob Bratina (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hamilton Mountain
Scott Duvall (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas/th>
Filomena Tassi (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Milton
Lisa Raitt (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Niagara Centre
Vance Badawey (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Niagara Falls
Rob Nicholson (CPC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC Hold
Niagara West
Dean Allison (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
St. Catharines
Chris Bittle (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib

Midwest Ontario

Brantford—Brant
Phil McColeman (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Cambridge
Bryan May (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Guelph
Lloyd Longfield (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Haldimand—Norfolk
Diane Finley (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Huron—Bruce
Ben Lobb (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Kitchener Centre
Raj Saini (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Kitchener-Conestoga
Harold Albrecht (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Marwan Tabbara (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Oxford
Dave MacKenzie (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Perth—Wellington
John Nater (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Waterloo
Bardish Chagger (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Wellington—Halton Hills
Michael Chong (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold

Southwest Ontario

Chatham-Kent—Leamington
Dave Van Kesteren (CPC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC Hold
Elgin—Middlesex—London
Karen Vecchio (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Essex
Tracey Ramsey (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
Bev Shipley (CPC) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC Hold
London—Fanshawe
Irene Mathyssen (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: NDP Hold
London North Centre
Peter Fragiskatos (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
London West
Kate Young (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Sarnia—Lambton
Marilyn Gladu (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Windsor—Tecumseh
Cheryl Hardcastle (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Windsor West
Brian Masse (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold

Northern Ontario

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing
Carol Hughes (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Kenora
Bob Nault (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Nickel Belt
Marc Serré (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Nipissing—Timiskaming
Anthony Rota (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Parry Sound—Muskoka
Tony Clement (Ind) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Ind
Sault Ste. Marie
Terry Sheehan (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Sudbury
Paul Lefebvre (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Thunder Bay—Rainy River
Don Rusnak (Lib) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib Hold
Thunder Bay—Superior North
Patty Hajdu (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Timmins—James Bay
Charlie Angus (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold

July 15, 2019 Ontario Predictions Update

ON predicted seat totals: Lib 70, CPC 41, NDP 9, Ind 1.

The Conservatives will pick back up in Ontario but problems plaguing the provincial PC government are having a chilling effect on their federal poll numbers. Our early predictions show the NDP could win as many as 12 seats in Ontario but right now, they are lagging behind where they need to be and may only come up with nine this time. For now, we will entertain the idea that Jane Philpott can and will win her seat again.

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