Quebec Election 2018 Predictions and Results

Quebecois voters head to the polls on October 1. Who will win?

Quebec Election 2018

Quebec Election 2018 is right around the corner. For the third election in a row, La belle province may change governments. The election is scheduled for October 1, 2018.

There has never been a government led by the Coalition Avenir Québec in the province’s history. This could be the year where Quebec gets its first, with François Legault running the show. The CAQ has done well in the recent opinion polls, with the Liberal government of Philippe Couillard trailing.

Just four years ago, Couillard’s federalist Liberals defeated the Parti Québécois government of Pauline Marois. Her minority government was so fragile, it didn’t last two years. If you believe the aforementioned opinion polls, this will not be the year another PQ government takes power. In fact, it’s more likely they will get reduced to a rump party than win. Think about this as well: the last Parti Québécois leader to win a majority was Lucien Bouchard in 1998.

The PQ aside, this could be Legault’s year. Soon we will find out if his CAQ can take this all the way, Couillard and the Liberals defy the odds, or other parties like the PQ or Québec solidaire will play kingmakers.

Quebec’s election will be the third provincial poll of the year. Ontario elected the Progressive Conservatives on June 7, and New Brunswick’s Liberals are up for re-election on September 24.

Please note that aside from a few markings below, this article will be in English. Our French-speaking friends may use the attached tool to translate this webpage. Si vous voulez traduire en français, utilisez cet outil.

We have the No Tossups Ever pledge south of the border as well as north of it. We will make our Quebec election 2018 predictions all the way until election day. Please also see our Canadian elections page for elections we’ve covered that you may have missed.

NAVIGATE QUEBEC ELECTION 2018: Quebec Election 2018 Results | Quebec Party Leaders | Sovereignty Stances | Current Prediction | Seat-by-Seat Predictions | Analysis

Quebec Election 2018 Party Leaders (Major Parties)

Liberal (Lib)
Philippe Couillard (Premier, MNA for Roberval)
Parti Québécois (PQ)
Jean-François Lisée (Leader of the Opposition, MNA for Rosemont)
Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ)
François Legault (MNA for L’Assomption)
Québec solidaire (QS)
Manon Massé (MNA for Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques) and Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (MNA for Gouin)

Quebec Election 2018 Party Stances on Sovereignty

Quebec sovereignty is an issue that comes up in every campaign. Politics in this province are not merely measured on a left-right spectrum, but a federalist-sovereigntist continuum.

Liberal
Federalist
Parti Québécois
Separatist/sovereigntist
Coalition Avenir Québec
Nationalist, but not sovereigntist
Québec solidaire
Sovereigntist

Quebec Election 2018 Results

Quebec Election 2018 results votes

It was a majority government for the Coalition Avenir Québec, the first non-Liberal or Parti Québécois government in the province since Union Nationale lost in 1970. The new premier of Quebec will be François Legault.

This goes without saying, but it was the CAQ’s best election in its history. Meanwhile, at under 25 percent, it was the worst electoral performance for the Liberal Party in Quebec history.

The PQ, in government as recently as 2014, were reduced to just nine seats. This is their lowest seat total since 1973, just years after the party’s birth.

Finally, it was also an historic night for Québec solidaire, though for its gains. Founded in 2006, the party had never previously won more than three seats in a general election. They are now at 10 and are the third-place party in the National Assembly. QS won several seats outside of Montreal, including Sherbrooke and Taschereau.

Quebec Election 2018 results seats

The CAQ will command a working majority in the new legislature. Legault has 74 seats, whereas only 63 are needed for a majority government.

Quebec Election 2018 results Liberal and PQ losses

Opinion polls caught the fact that the CAQ would win, either in a minority or majority government situation. Only one outlier poll in the entire campaign, and just two polls of many in 2018, suggested a Liberal lead. What recent polls missed was the size of the CAQ victory. The average CAQ advantage based on an average of seven polls following the final debate was about 2.2 percent. They won by about 12.6 percent in the popular vote. CAQ electoral performance far exceeded expectations, also given that they won multiple seats between Laval and the Island of Montreal.

Quebec Election 2018 Prediction (Final): September 28, 2018

Quebec Election 2018 prediction 9-28-18

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine & Bas-Saint-Laurent


 

Bonaventure
Sylvain Roy (PQ)
Predict: PQ Hold
Côte-du-Sud
Norbert Morin (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Gaspé
Gaétan Lelièvre (Ind) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: PQ GAIN
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Germain Chevarie (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Matane-Matapédia
Pascal Bérubé (PQ)
Predict: PQ Hold
Rimouski
Harold LeBel (PQ)
Predict: PQ Hold
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata
Jean D’Amour (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean & Côte-Nord

Chicoutimi
Mireille Jean (PQ)
Predict: PQ Hold
Dubuc
Serge Simard (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Duplessis
Lorraine Richard (PQ)
Predict: PQ Hold
Jonquière
Sylvain Gaudreault (PQ)
Predict: PQ Hold
Lac-Saint-Jean
Alexandre Cloutier (PQ) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: PQ Hold
René-Lévesque
Martin Ouellet (PQ)
Predict: PQ Hold
Roberval
Philippe Couillard (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Quebec City (Capitale-Nationale)

Charlesbourg
François Blais (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
Caroline Simard (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Chauveau
Véronyque Tremblay (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Jean-Lesage
André Drolet (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Jean-Talon
Sébastien Proulx (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
La Peltrie
Éric Caire (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Louis-Hébert
Geneviève Guilbault (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Montmorency
Raymond Bernier (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Portneuf
Michel Matte (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Taschereau
Agnès Maltais (PQ) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: QS GAIN
Vanier-Les Rivières
Patrick Huot (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Mauricie

Champlain
Pierre-Michel Auger (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
Julie Boulet (Lib) & Pierre Giguère (Lib) — MERGED, BOULET NOT RUNNING
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Maskinongé
Marc H. Plante (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Trois-Rivières
Jean-Denis Girard (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Estrie

Mégantic
Ghislain Bolduc (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Orford
Pierre Reid (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Richmond
Karine Vallières (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Saint-François
Guy Hardy (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Sherbrooke
Luc Fortin (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Montreal

Acadie
Christine St-Pierre (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Anjou–Louis-Riel
Lise Thériault (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Bourassa-Sauvé
Rita de Santis (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Bourget
Maka Kotto (PQ)
Predict: PQ Hold
D’Arcy-McGee
David Birnbaum (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Gouin
Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (QS)
Predict: QS Hold
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Carole Poirier (PQ)
Predict: QS GAIN
Jacques-Cartier
Geoffrey Kelley (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Jeanne-Mance–Viger
Filomena Rotiroti (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
LaFontaine
Marc Tanguay (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Laurier-Dorion
Gerry Sklavounos (Ind)
Predict: QS GAIN
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Robert Poëti (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Marquette
François Ouimet (Lib) — LOST RENOMINATION
Predict: Lib Hold
Maurice-Richard
Marie Montpetit (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Mercier
Amir Khadir (QS) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: QS Hold
Mont-Royal–Outremont
Pierre Arcand (Lib) & Hélène David (Lib) — MERGED, DAVID RUNNING IN MARGUERITE-BOURGEOYS
Predict: Lib Hold
Nelligan
Martin Coiteux (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Kathleen Weil (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Nicole Léger (PQ) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Robert-Baldwin
Carlos Leitão (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Rosemont
Jean-François Lisée (PQ)
Predict: PQ Hold
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne
Dominique Anglade (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques
Manon Massé (QS)
Predict: QS Hold
Saint-Laurent
Jean-Marc Fournier (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Verdun
Isabelle Melançon (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Viau
David Heurtel (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Westmount–Saint-Louis
Jacques Chagnon (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Outaouais

Chapleau
Marc Carrière (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Gatineau
Stéphanie Vallé (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Hull
Maryse Gaudreault (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Papineau
Alexandre Iracà (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Pontiac
André Fortin (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Abitibi-Témiscamingue & Nord-du-Québec

Abitibi-Est
Guy Bourgeois (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Abitibi-Ouest
François Gendron (PQ) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: PQ Hold
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue
Luc Blanchette (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Ungava
Jean Boucher (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Chaudière-Appalaches & Centre-du-Québec

Arthabaska
Éric Lefebvre (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Beauce-Nord
André Spénard (CAQ) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ Hold
Beauce-Sud
Paul Busque (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Bellechasse
Dominique Vien (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Marc Picard (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Drummond–Bois-Francs
Sébastien Schneeberger (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Johnson
André Lamontagne (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Lévis
François Paradis (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Lotbinière-Frontenac
Laurent Lessard (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Nicolet-Bécancour
Donald Martel (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Laval

Chomedey
Guy Ouellette (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Fabre
Monique Sauvé (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Laval-des-Rapides
Saul Polo (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Mille-Îles
Francine Charbonneau (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Sainte-Rose
Jean Habel (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Vimont
Jean Rousselle (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Lanaudière

Berthier
André Villeneuve (PQ)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Joliette
Véronique Hivon (PQ)
Predict: PQ Hold
L’Assomption
François Legault (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Masson
Mathieu Lemay (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Repentigny
Lise Lavallée (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Rousseau
Nicolas Marceau (PQ)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Terrebonne
Mathieu Traversy (PQ)
Predict: CAQ GAIN

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Laurentides

Argenteuil
Yves St-Denis (Ind)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Bertrand
Claude Cousineau (PQ) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Blainville
Mario Laframboise (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Deux-Montagnes
Benoit Charette (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Groulx
Claude Surprenant (Ind) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Labelle
Sylvain Pagé (PQ)
Predict: PQ Hold
Les Plaines
NO INCUMBENT – NEW RIDING
Predict: CAQ WIN
Mirabel
Sylvie D’Amours (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Prévost
NO INCUMBENT – NEW RIDING
Predict: CAQ WIN
Saint-Jérôme
Marc Bourcier (PQ)
Predict: CAQ GAIN

Quebec Election 2018 Predictions: Montérégie

Beauharnois
Guy Leclair (PQ)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Borduas
Simon Jolin-Barrette (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Brome-Missisquoi
Pierre Paradis (Lib) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Chambly
Jean-François Roberge (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Châteauguay
Pierre Moreau (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Granby
François Bonnardel (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Huntingdon
Stéphane Billette (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Iberville
Claire Samson (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
La Pinière
Gaétan Barrette (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
La Prairie
Richard Merlinie (Lib)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Laporte
Nicole Ménard (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Marie-Victorin
Catherine Fournier (PQ)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Montarville
Nathalie Roy (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Richelieu
Sylvain Rochon (PQ)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Saint-Hyacinthe
Chantal Soucy (CAQ)
Predict: CAQ Hold
Saint-Jean
Dave Turcotte (PQ)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Sanguinet
Alain Therrien (PQ)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Soulanges
Lucie Charlebois (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Taillon
Diane Lamarre (PQ)
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Vachon
Martine Ouellet (Ind) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: CAQ GAIN
Vaudreuil
Marie-Claude Nichols (Lib)
Predict: Lib Hold
Verchères
Stéphane Bergeron (PQ)
Predict: CAQ GAIN

Quebec Election 2018 Analysis, September 28, 2018

Since our last update, the Quebec polls have narrowed considerably, such to the point that the CAQ and Liberals are running neck-and-neck. This still represents a big gain for the CAQ over the last election, and they figure to be the largest party in the National Assembly.

However, last time through the 125 seats, we came up with a CAQ majority. We’re not anymore. The Liberals and PQ came up with just enough seats held to deny François Legault his 63 seats. Notably, Quebec solidaire adds another to their total from the last projections, bringing them to six. They are within range of a few more, so another statistical shake of the numbers could make this a chaotic election night like we just saw in New Brunswick. (And yes, people are now talking about proportional representation here, too.)

Quebec City is going to be a CAQ blowout, and they will likewise run up the score in the Eastern Townships. The Liberals will do very well on the island, though Quebec solidaire will give every party there a few bloody noses on election night. This election hinges on the Montérégie, where we think the CAQ will do well, but a few Liberal incumbents pulling through here and there could put our prediction in jeopardy. Generally speaking, the Montreal suburbs as a whole will decide Legault’s — and Couillard’s — fates.

Quebec Election 2018 Analysis, August 26, 2018

François Legault and the CAQ are now in majority territory for the first time in our predictions. We have them taking 70 seats in the National Assembly, which would gift them a working majority. The governing Liberals are in virgin territory, having just won a comfortable majority four years ago and now finding themselves staring at heavy losses. This is the way the campaign has gone so far, and opinion polls are telling a story of a premier who’s getting little good news. Couillard’s new pitch is expanded dental coverage, which probably won’t flip a seven-point deficit in the polls overnight.

If the CAQ is to win anywhere in Montreal, look at Pointe-aux-Trembles; if in Laval, Sainte-Rose is a distinct possibility, but Vimont and perhaps Mille-Îles will also be close.

The Parti Quebecois is a virtual non-factor in this election. They are heading for a very bad election night, perhaps their worst since the 1970s. Currently polling in the high teens, such a result would be their worst election vote share ever. With the CAQ as a nationalist party pivoting as the Liberal alternative, they’ve sucked much of the wind from the PQ’s sails. Don’t think the CAQ isn’t getting Liberal votes as well, however.

Quebec Election 2018 Analysis, July 31, 2018

The CAQ is the perceived party in the lead in this election, but we are still two months away from the vote. As of now, we predict they will come up just short of the 63 seats they need for a majority. It’s not looking like a good night for the PQ, with the Liberals also taking heavy losses. This is based solely off of the CAQ’s consistent lead in opinion polls over months.

Couillard’s personal job approval poll numbers are well below those from his first year in 2014, holding steady in the low 30s. Legault’s message of change is striking a chord with voters so far, particularly as he has reached out to the anglophone community. The question is, will it continue to work?

leave a reply

four − one =

Font Resize
Contrast

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close