Canada Election 2019 - Quebec

The Quebec federal election 2019 results will have an impact on the national picture, but at this point, what will it be?

Having 75 seats in the House of Commons, the second-most of any province, Quebec supplies a lot of MPs, but they have in the past bucked prevailing national trends in a complete fashion. In other years, they go with it; you never quite know what you are going to get with the Quebecois. This coming from a province that has changed governments three times since 2013, the most recent being last year.

When Jean Chretien was prime minister, Liberal red blanketed its fair share of La belle province, but Bloc Quebecois blue also had a substantial hold. In 1993 and again in 2004, the BQ peaked with 54 seats while the Liberals won their government elsewhere. In 2011, when Stephen Harper won his only Conservative majority, they took a handful of seats in Quebec against an orange NDP wave thanks to Jack Layton. (Who can forget Ruth Ellen Brosseau, still an NDP MP today, who was elected in the “Orange Crush” despite spending part of the campaign in Las Vegas while knowing nothing about her riding?) During Justin Trudeau’s 2015 victory, the Liberals claimed about half of Quebec’s seats with the NDP, Conservatives, and Bloc dividing the rest.

The BQ may be in for a bigger share this time, but will those theoretical gains come off of the Conservatives, NDP, or the governing Liberals? Do other opposition parties have more gains in store or will the Liberals shore up losses elsewhere with gains on Trudeau’s home turf? Finally, how will Maxime Bernier do in Beauce under his new party flag?

As if we need to make this obvious, the predominant language for commentary on this page will be English. Pour que vous traduisiez cette page en français, nous vous recommandons Google Translate via ce lien. Placez le lien vers cette page dans le champ de traduction. S’il vous plaît utilisez prudence en visitant des liens extérieurs.

At the links below, you can move back to the Canadian overall federal election prediction. Links to the individual province seat-by-seat predictions are also right here.

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Quebec Federal Election 2019 Seat-by-Seat Predictions

Eastern Quebec — Est du Québec

Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
Rémi Massé (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis
Steven Blaney (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Diane Lebouthillier (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib
Bernard Généreux (CPC)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from CPC
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques
Guy Caron (NDP)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP

Côte-Nord & Saguenay

Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix
Sylvie Boucher (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
Richard Martel (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Karine Trudel (NDP)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP
Richard Hébert (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Marilène Gill (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold

Quebec City — Ville de Québec

Alupa Clarke (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Pierre Paul-Hus (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Joël Lightbound (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Gérard Deltell (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Jean-Yves Duclos (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib

Central Quebec — Centre du Québec

Louis Plamondon (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Ruth Ellen Brosseau (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Gabriel Ste-Marie (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Jacques Gourde (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Luc Thériault (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Joël Godin (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Monique Pauzé (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
François-Philippe Champagne (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Robert Aubin (NDP)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP

Eastern Townships — Cantons de l’Est

Maxime Bernier (PPC)
Prediction: PPC Hold
Denis Paradis (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib
Marie-Claude Bibeau (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib
François Choquette (NDP)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP
Luc Berthold (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Alain Rayes (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Brigitte Sansoucy (NDP)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP
Pierre Breton (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib
Pierre-Luc Dusseault (NDP)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP


Matthew Dubé (NDP)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP
Alexandra Mendès (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Brenda Shanahan (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
La Prairie
Jean-Claude Poissant (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib
Sherry Romanado (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib
Pierre Nantel (Ind/Grn)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Ind
Michel Picard (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères
Xavier Barsalou-Duval (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Jean Rioux (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib
Anne Minh-Thu Quach (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP
Peter Schiefke (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Montreal & Laval

Mélanie Joly (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Angelo Iacono (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Emmanuel Dubourg (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Anju Dhillon (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP
Pablo Rodríguez (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
La Pointe-de-l’Île
Mario Beaulieu (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Francis Scarpaleggia (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
David Lametti (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hélène Laverdière (NDP)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP
Laval—Les Îles
Fayçal El-Khoury (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Yves Robillard (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Mount Royal
Anthony Housefather (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Marc Garneau (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Rachel Bendayan (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Justin Trudeau (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Frank Baylis (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
Alexandre Boulerice (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Emmanuella Lambropoulos (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Vacant – Previously Liberal
Prediction: Lib Win
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Sœurs
Marc Miller (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Eva Nassif (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Laurentides, Outaouais, & Northern Quebec — Laurentides, Outaouais, et Nord Québécois

Romeo Saganash (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP
Christine Moore (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation
Stéphane Lauzon (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Steven MacKinnon (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Greg Fergus (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
David Graham (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib
Simon Marcil (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Will Amos (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Linda Lapointe (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Rhéal Fortin (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Michel Boudrias (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Thérèse-De Blainville
Ramez Ayoub (Lib)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from Lib

October 18, 2019 Final Quebec Predictions Update

QC predicted seat totals: BQ 35, Lib 29, CPC 11, NDP 2, PPC 1.

Judging on how much this picture shifted in a month, it’s enough to make you hesitate. Is this Bloc surge real? We’ll soon find out for sure. If not, the Liberals will breathe a sigh of relief. The NDP is not coming back here but could hold a seat or two.

In total, we are predicting 27 seat flips in Quebec this time.

September 21, 2019 Quebec Predictions Update

QC predicted seat totals: Lib 48, BQ 14, CPC 13, NDP 2, PPC 1.

The Liberals will win a majority of Quebec’s 78 seats, but we have pulled them back a bit as the Conservatives are not polling badly and the Bloc will at least hold its own. It’s a collapse for the NDP in Quebec, but we have them now holding two seats. That can fall to zero on a bad night, but their best-case scenario is not much better than two. Liberal best-case scenario in Quebec is somewhere around 57 seats, with the Bloc’s at 17 and the CPC at 15. Maxime Bernier is not a lock but we have him re-elected for now.

July 15, 2019 Quebec Predictions Update

QC predicted seat totals: Lib 51, BQ 13, CPC 12, NDP 1, PPC 1.

The NDP is on the verge of collapse in Quebec, as seen by the Outremont by-election early in 2019. With poll numbers below ten percent, they could suffer a wipeout of their 15 seats. The Liberals will be beneficiaries of most of those seats. Meanwhile, the Conservatives should break even or increase by a handful, while the Bloc Quebecois increases. Maxime Bernier will hold Beauce for his People’s Party on a personal vote, and will be their only MP.