Canada Election 2019 - Quebec

The Quebec federal election 2019 results will have an impact on the national picture, but at this point, what will it be?

Having 75 seats in the House of Commons, the second-most of any province, Quebec supplies a lot of MPs, but they have in the past bucked prevailing national trends in a complete fashion. In other years, they go with it; you never quite know what you are going to get with the Quebecois. This coming from a province that has changed governments three times since 2013, the most recent being last year.

When Jean Chretien was prime minister, Liberal red blanketed its fair share of La belle province, but Bloc Quebecois blue also had a substantial hold. In 1993 and again in 2004, the BQ peaked with 54 seats while the Liberals won their government elsewhere. In 2011, when Stephen Harper won his only Conservative majority, they took a handful of seats in Quebec against an orange NDP wave thanks to Jack Layton. (Who can forget Ruth Ellen Brosseau, still an NDP MP today, who was elected in the “Orange Crush” despite spending part of the campaign in Las Vegas while knowing nothing about her riding?) During Justin Trudeau’s 2015 victory, the Liberals claimed about half of Quebec’s seats with the NDP, Conservatives, and Bloc dividing the rest.

The BQ may be in for a bigger share this time, but will those theoretical gains come off of the Conservatives, NDP, or the governing Liberals? Do other opposition parties have more gains in store or will the Liberals shore up losses elsewhere with gains on Trudeau’s home turf? Finally, how will Maxime Bernier do in Beauce under his new party flag?

As if we need to make this obvious, the predominant language for commentary on this page will be English. Pour que vous traduisiez cette page en français, nous vous recommandons Google Translate via ce lien. Placez le lien vers cette page dans le champ de traduction. S’il vous plaît utilisez prudence en visitant des liens extérieurs.

At the links below, you can move back to the Canadian overall federal election prediction. Links to the individual province seat-by-seat predictions are also right here.

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Quebec Federal Election 2019 Seat-by-Seat Predictions

Eastern Quebec — Est du Québec

Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia
Rémi Massé (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis
Steven Blaney (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Diane Lebouthillier (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Montmagny—L’Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
Bernard Généreux (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques
Guy Caron (NDP)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP

Côte-Nord & Saguenay

Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d’Orléans—Charlevoix
Sylvie Boucher (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord
Richard Martel (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Jonquière
Karine Trudel (NDP)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP
Lac-Saint-Jean
Richard Hébert (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Manicouagan
Marilène Gill (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold

Quebec City — Ville de Québec

Beauport—Limoilou
Alupa Clarke (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
Pierre Paul-Hus (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Louis-Hébert
Joël Lightbound (Lib)
Prediction: CPC GAIN from Lib
Louis-Saint-Laurent
Gérard Deltell (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Québec
Jean-Yves Duclos (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Central Quebec — Centre du Québec

Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel
Louis Plamondon (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Berthier—Maskinongé
Ruth Ellen Brosseau (NDP)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP
Joliette
Gabriel Ste-Marie (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Lévis—Lotbinière
Jacques Gourde (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Montcalm
Luc Thériault (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier
Joël Godin (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Repentigny
Monique Pauzé (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Saint-Maurice—Champlain
François-Philippe Champagne (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Trois-Rivières
Robert Aubin (NDP)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP

Eastern Townships — Cantons de l’Est

Beauce
Maxime Bernier (PPC)
Prediction: PPC Hold
Brome—Missisquoi
Denis Paradis (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Compton—Stanstead
Marie-Claude Bibeau (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Drummond
François Choquette (NDP)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP
Mégantic—L’Érable
Luc Berthold (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Richmond—Arthabaska
Alain Rayes (CPC)
Prediction: CPC Hold
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot
Brigitte Sansoucy (NDP)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP
Shefford
Pierre Breton (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Sherbrooke
Pierre-Luc Dusseault (NDP)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP

Montérégie

Beloeil—Chambly
Matthew Dubé (NDP)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP
Brossard—Saint-Lambert
Alexandra Mendès (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Châteauguay—Lacolle
Brenda Shanahan (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
La Prairie
Jean-Claude Poissant (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne
Sherry Romanado (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert
Pierre Nantel (NDP)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP
Montarville
Michel Picard (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères
Xavier Barsalou-Duval (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Saint-Jean
Jean Rioux (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Salaberry—Suroît
Anne Minh-Thu Quach (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP
Vaudreuil—Soulanges
Peter Schiefke (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Montreal & Laval

Ahuntsic-Cartierville
Mélanie Joly (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Alfred-Pellan
Angelo Iacono (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Bourassa
Emmanuel Dubourg (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle
Anju Dhillon (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hochelaga
Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP
Honoré-Mercier
Pablo Rodríguez (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
La Pointe-de-l’Île
Mario Beaulieu (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Lac-Saint-Louis
Francis Scarpaleggia (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun
David Lametti (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Laurier—Sainte-Marie
Hélène Laverdière (NDP)
Prediction: BQ GAIN from NDP
Laval—Les Îles
Fayçal El-Khoury (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
Yves Robillard (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Mount Royal
Anthony Housefather (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount
Marc Garneau (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Outremont
Rachel Bendayan (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Papineau
Justin Trudeau (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Pierrefonds—Dollard
Frank Baylis (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie
Alexandre Boulerice (NDP)
Prediction: NDP Hold
Saint-Laurent
Emmanuella Lambropoulos (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel
Vacant – Previously Liberal
Prediction: Lib Win
Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Sœurs
Marc Miller (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Vimy
Eva Nassif (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

Laurentides, Outaouais, & Northern Quebec — Laurentides, Outaouais, et Nord Québécois

Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou
Romeo Saganash (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP
Abitibi—Témiscamingue
Christine Moore (NDP) – Not Seeking Re-Election
Prediction: Lib GAIN from NDP
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation
Stéphane Lauzon (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Gatineau
Steven MacKinnon (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hull—Aylmer
Greg Fergus (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Laurentides—Labelle
David Graham (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Mirabel
Simon Marcil (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Pontiac
Will Amos (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
Linda Lapointe (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Rivière-du-Nord
Rhéal Fortin (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Terrebonne
Michel Boudrias (BQ)
Prediction: BQ Hold
Thérèse-De Blainville
Ramez Ayoub (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

July 15, 2019 Quebec Predictions Update

QC predicted seat totals: Lib 51, BQ 13, CPC 12, NDP 1, PPC 1.

The NDP is on the verge of collapse in Quebec, as seen by the Outremont by-election early in 2019. With poll numbers below ten percent, they could suffer a wipeout of their 15 seats. The Liberals will be beneficiaries of most of those seats. Meanwhile, the Conservatives should break even or increase by a handful, while the Bloc Quebecois increases. Maxime Bernier will hold Beauce for his People’s Party on a personal vote, and will be their only MP.

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