Seat-by-seat predictions, analysis, and results for Queensland Election 2017. Will Labor win their snap election, or is the LNP coming back?
State premier Annastacia Palaszczuk called the early poll for November 25, 2017 to try to secure her Labor Party a majority government. Nearly three years ago, she won a surprise victory over Campbell Newman’s Liberal National Party, who nearly wiped Labor out in 2012. The ALP was one seat shy of a majority thanks to that election, but in 2017, the goalposts are moving backwards. Instead of 89 seats and 45 for a majority, there are 93, and 47 are required for majority status.
At the time of the writ drop, opinion polls in Queensland proved inconclusive. October’s surveys showed Labor on track for a small majority, while earlier polls gave the LNP a more reasonable chance. This election is fought at a time of great difficulty for the federal Coalition. Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce was declared ineligible for parliament in a dual citizenship case. This effected a loss of their overall majority. At the same time, the federal Liberal-National union sees worsening poll numbers. If the national scene has any impact on Queensland’s election, Labor’s tides may rise on November 25.
A notable change in Queensland’s electoral system is the institution of “full preferential voting.” Voters must preference every candidate, as opposed to the optional preferential voting done previously. For example, if there are six candidates running, all six must be ranked on the ballot paper. Ballots that do not have all spots marked can be invalidated.
We predict outcomes for Queensland as a whole, as well as all 93 seats in this election. Predictions are subject to frequent, unforeseen changes. You can also have your say in the comments on our overall and individual projections.
Queensland Election 2017: Seat Results
Labor achieved a majority government of three with 48 seats. In opposition are the Liberal Nationals with 39 seats. Katter’s Australian Party picked one up to get to three. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and The Greens each come away with one seat. Finally, an independent was elected in Noosa.
Compared to our final predictions, the minor parties did a bit better than expected, though Labor came through with its majority. That became more of a reality in the closing days of the campaign, and Annastacia Palaszczuk got it.
Queensland Election 2017: Seat-by-Seat Prediction and Results
The margins shown below are based off of the notional totals from the last election after the seat boundaries were redrawn. In Buderim, the elected LNP member crossed to the One Nation Party; should ONP hold the seat, it will show here as a One Nation gain. Cairns, Pumicestone, and Cook also had sitting Labor MPs who became independent; the ALP margin is shown below.
| Seat | Margin | Prediction | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Algester | ALP 9.6 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Aspley | LNP 3.2 | LNP Hold | ALP GAIN |
| Bancroft | ALP 8.3 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Barron River | ALP 3.6 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Bonney | LNP 2.2 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Broadwater | LNP 16.3 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Buderim | LNP 11.8 (ONP)* | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Bulimba | ALP 6.1 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Bundaberg | ALP 0.5 | LNP Gain | LNP GAIN |
| Bundamba | ALP 25.9 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Burdekin | ALP 1.4* | ALP Hold | LNP GAIN |
| Burleigh | LNP 5.5 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Burnett | LNP 6.6 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Cairns | ALP 7.5* | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Callide | LNP 9.8 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Caloundra | LNP 4.7 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Capalaba | ALP 6.5 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Chatsworth | LNP 3.3 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Clayfield | LNP 6.6 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Condamine | LNP 17.1 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Cook | ALP 6.8* | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Coomera | LNP 5.8 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Cooper | ALP 3.3 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Currumbin | LNP 5.7 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Everton | LNP 2.0 | ALP Gain | LNP Hold |
| Ferny Grove | ALP 5.3 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Gaven | LNP 2.8 | LNP Hold | ALP GAIN |
| Gladstone | ALP 25.3 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Glass House | LNP 0.9 | ALP Gain | LNP Hold |
| Greenslopes | ALP 5.0 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Gregory | LNP 10.9 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Gympie | LNP 8.2 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Hervey Bay | LNP 6.5 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Hill | KAP 4.9 | KAP Hold | KAP Hold |
| Hinchinbrook | LNP 3.4 | LNP Hold | KAP GAIN |
| Inala | ALP 20.6 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Ipswich | ALP 16.0 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Ipswich West | ALP 9.1 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Jordan | ALP 13.5 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Kawana | LNP 10.2 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Keppel | ALP 4.1 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Kurwongbah | ALP 7.1 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Lockyer | LNP 1.7 | ONP Gain | LNP Hold |
| Logan | ALP 5.9 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Lytton | ALP 9.9 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Macalister | ALP 6.4 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Mackay | ALP 10.2 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Maiwar | LNP 3.0 | LNP Hold | Grn GAIN |
| Mansfield | ALP 0.8* | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Maroochydore | LNP 10.3 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Maryborough | ALP 1.1 | LNP Gain | ALP Hold |
| McConnel | ALP 3.1 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Mermaid Beach | LNP 10.3 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Miller | ALP 5.6 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Mirani | ALP 3.8 | ALP Hold | ONP GAIN |
| Moggill | LNP 8.1 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Morayfield | ALP 13.5 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Mount Ommaney | ALP 1.0* | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Mudgeeraba | LNP 10.4 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Mulgrave | ALP 12.9 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Mundingburra | ALP 1.8 | LNP Gain | ALP Hold |
| Murrumba | ALP 6.3 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Nanango | LNP 13.3 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Nicklin | LNP 3.7* | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Ninderry | LNP 6.9 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Noosa | LNP 6.6 | LNP Hold | Ind GAIN |
| Nudgee | ALP 9.2 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Oodgeroo | LNP 5.7 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Pine Rivers | ALP 4.1 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Pumicestone | LNP 0.1* | ALP Gain | LNP Hold |
| Redcliffe | ALP 7.6 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Redlands | LNP 1.2 | LNP Hold | ALP GAIN |
| Rockhampton | ALP 14.0 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Sandgate | ALP 10.1 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Scenic Rim | LNP 9.2 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| South Brisbane | ALP 13.8 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Southern Downs | LNP 19.2 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Southport | LNP 7.8 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Springwood | ALP 1.4 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Stafford | ALP 9.3 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Stretton | ALP 5.3 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Surfers Paradise | LNP 20.4 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Theodore | LNP 5.3 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Thuringowa | ALP 6.6 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Toohey | ALP 8.3 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Toowoomba North | LNP 1.6 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Toowoomba South | LNP 8.4 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Townsville | ALP 5.7 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Traeger | KAP 16.1 | KAP Hold | KAP Hold |
| Warrego | LNP 14.5 | LNP Hold | LNP Hold |
| Waterford | ALP 13.1 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
| Whitsunday | LNP 0.6 | ALP Gain | LNP Hold |
| Woodridge | ALP 25.8 | ALP Hold | ALP Hold |
Queensland Election 2017: Final Seat Prediction
Labor 49, LNP 41, KAP 2, ONP 1
Queensland Election 2017: Current Analysis, 24 November 2017
We are off of thinking that this will be a tied election. Our prediction is that Labor wins, One Nation messes up the numbers in Regional Queensland, and a number of seats change hands. More than a handful of people were surveyed in key seats throughout this campaign, and though One Nation is popping 20 and sometimes 30 percent in these seats, that is not enough. Placing third does them no good. Even if they come in second, are Labor or LNP voters going to direct preferences to One Nation in large enough numbers to make up another 20 percent of the vote? Possibly, but it is a big ask.
In an ALP-ONP two-party preferred tilt, it could happen. You will likely see one of those, for example, in Thuringowa. There, One Nation could still be too weak of a second-place entry to get to a majority on preferences. This is in spite of the LNP preferencing One Nation over Labor.
Queensland Election 2017: Past Analysis, 12 November 2017
Has Labor had a great week? Not necessarily, depending on who you ask. We were prepared to modify our predictions to account for a slight turn towards the ALP, but that isn’t going to happen.
Now, what to do about Pauline Hanson’s One Nation? They will preference incumbents last on their how-to-vote cards. The LNP will preference them ahead of Labor in 50 seats. Take all of this together with a new poll that suggests the flow of preferences could end up being 52 to 48 — for the LNP. If that’s what ends up happening, it will be a Liberal National majority government.
With other surveys going the other way in favor of Labor, we’re thinking a tied election with incumbents in tight seats in big trouble. Even one like Mundinburra will see serious upheaval thanks to the ONP and Katter’s Australian Party. Those preferences are largely going to the LNP. It’s likely we are heading for a scenario where both the ALP and LNP lose significant primary vote share
Queensland Election 2017: Past Analysis, 2 November 2017
The campaign began, and it’s still too soon to know if the needle is moving. What we do know is that the One Nation Party, forecasting a big jump in this election, will preference sitting MPs last. This could give us some wacky numbers on election night as the two-party preferred booths come through.
For now, our prediction is conservative (and not conservative as in the LNP). Some seats turn, most don’t, and we end up right back where we started with a Labor minority. At this point, there’s no overarching trend, there’s no wave, and there’s no reason to think (yet) that this is going to be a major shake-up in Queensland. It could happen, but we can’t suggest it at this early stage.
Queensland Election 2017: Poll Opening and Closing Times
Polls open at 8:00am local time, and close at 6:00pm local time. Voting in the Queensland election is compulsory.
Queensland Election 2017: Key Links
The Queensland Electoral Commission has information on the changes to the voting system and much more on local candidates in your electorate.
Antony Green and the ABC fired up their Queensland state election page, with a wealth of information on candidates and predictions.
We keep updating the Australia elections page on Electionarium.