Your outpost for South Australia Election 2018, from seat-by-seat predictions to analysis and the final results.
In the state’s 2014 election, the Liberals won a commanding 53 to 47 two-party preferred vote, but still got one fewer seat than Labor. The ALP made its vote count in critical seats, but with redistribution, the Liberals enter with a path to a majority.
This is what we would have said if Nick Xenophon’s party hadn’t been created. SA-BEST could take a wrecking ball to South Australian politics. Unlike what we saw in Queensland with the rise of One Nation, SA-Best hails from the political centre and could get a flow of preferences from moderate voters in both camps. If it’s as massive a primary vote shift as expected, the undertow could steer seats that nobody would expect to change hands. Whether or not Xenophon can break through is anyone’s guess at this point, however we are likely to see South Australia’s wildest election in recent memory.
South Australia Election 2018: Post-Election Analysis, 18 March 2018
Sixteen years of Labor rule in South Australia came to an end with the 2018 state election; Steven Marshall will be the state’s new premier. His Liberals will be the owners of a narrow majority government; the ABC projects they will win 25 out of 47 seats.
Since Mike Rann first led Labor back into power in a hung parliament, the Liberals have been Charlie Brown and Labor, Lucy stealing the football. Elections came and went, but Labor was never pried out, even when Rann left for Jay Weatherill. In 2014, the Liberals got 53 percent of the statewide two-party preferred vote and still lost the election. Now, finally, they are back with a majority, though final results are pending.
SA-BEST, to paraphrase Happy Gilmore, was a flop, flop, flop-a-roo. A January poll suggested they were close to 30 percent of the primary vote. Even more recent surveys had them anywhere from 15 to 20 percent. As the final numbers rolled in, Nick Xenophon’s party was just under fourteen percent. The more important bottom line is that they won no seats in the state parliament’s lower house. It appears they will gain a foothold in the Legislative Council, but that’s all.
The biggest surprise was the performance of Xenophon himself. Not only did he lose in the electorate of Hartley, but it wasn’t close. Incumbent Liberal member Vincent Tarzia picked up a large swing in his favor to end with about 58.6 on a 2PP basis. In fact, Xenophon barely came in second on primary votes, edging Labor by about one percent.
What turned out to be SA-BEST’s best electorate was Heysen, but even there, the new guys lost. Josh Teague of the Liberals went head-first into a swing but still holds the seat with a 2.1 percent margin. Their best primary vote was in Finniss with about 26 percent.
South Australia Election 2018: Final Pre-Election Analysis, 17 March 2018
They call this an “unpredictable election.” So, why are we trying to predict it? I mean, we already did below, a month and a half ago. The point is that the prediction we leveled in early February is as good as any that we can make today. Therefore, we are not changing it. Let’s see if our gut instincts from the beginning end up being right.
The Liberals are believed to have a slim primary vote lead over Labor. It’s that pesky SA-Best that nobody can figure out, and how they will affect two-party preferred breakdowns. There’s only one way to find out, and that’s to watch the count.
South Australia Election 2018: Current Overall Prediction, 3 February 2018
South Australia Election 2018: Current Seat-By-Seat Prediction, 3 February 2018
|Adelaide||Sanderson (Lib)||Lib 2.0||Lib Hold|
|Badcoe||Key (ALP)||ALP 4.2||ALP Hold|
|Black||Speirs (Lib)||Lib 2.6||Lib Hold|
|Bragg||Chapman (Lib)||Lib 16.6||Lib Hold|
|Chaffey||Whetstone (Lib)||Lib 24.4||Lib Hold|
|Cheltenham||Weatherill (ALP)||ALP 14.4||ALP Hold|
|Colton||Caica (ALP)||Lib 3.7*||Lib GAIN|
|Croydon||Atkinson (ALP)||ALP 19.6||ALP Hold|
|Davenport||Duluk (Lib)||Lib 8.9||Lib Hold|
|Dunstan||Marshall (Lib)||Lib 3.9||Lib Hold|
|Elder||Digance (ALP)||Lib 4.3*||ALP Hold|
|Elizabeth||Odenwalder (ALP)||ALP 9.9||ALP Hold|
|Enfield||Rau (ALP)||ALP 6.2||ALP Hold|
|Finniss||Pengilly (Lib)||Lib 13.7||Lib Hold|
|Flinders||Treloar (Lib)||Lib 28.7||Lib Hold|
|Florey||Bedford (Ind)||ALP 9.2*||ALP Gain|
|Frome||Brock (Ind)||Lib 10.5 vs ALP||Lib GAIN|
|Gibson||Wingard (Lib)||Lib 3.2||Lib Hold|
|Giles||Hughes (ALP)||ALP 5.7||ALP Hold|
|Hammond||Pederick (Lib)||Lib 16.3||Lib Hold|
|Hartley||Tarzia (Lib)||Lib 3.3||SA-BEST GAIN|
|Heysen||Redmond (Lib)||Lib 13.2||Lib Hold|
|Hurtle Vale||Cook (ALP)||ALP 1.7||SA-BEST GAIN|
|Kauma||Picton (ALP)||ALP 8.4||ALP Hold|
|Kavel||Goldsworthy (Lib)||Lib 14.1||Lib Hold|
|King||Gee (ALP)||ALP 1.4||ALP Hold|
|Lee||Mullighan (ALP)||ALP 2.6||ALP Hold|
|Light||Piccolo (ALP)||ALP 3.9||ALP Hold|
|MacKillop||Williams (Lib)||Lib 26.7||Lib Hold|
|Mawson||Bignell (ALP)||Lib 3.2*||SA-BEST GAIN|
|Morialta||Gardner (Lib)||Lib 11.6||Lib Hold|
|Morphett||McFetridge (Ind)||Lib 10.4*||Lib GAIN|
|Mount Gambier||Bell (Ind)||Lib 21.6*||Lib GAIN|
|Narungga||Griffiths (Lib)||Lib 13.8||Lib Hold|
|Newland||Kenyon (ALP)||Lib 0.1*||ALP Hold|
|Playford||Snelling (ALP)||ALP 11.5||ALP Hold|
|Port Adelaide||Close (ALP)||ALP 12.5||ALP Hold|
|Ramsay||Bettison (ALP)||ALP 17.4||ALP Hold|
|Reynell||Hildyard (ALP)||ALP 9.8||ALP Hold|
|Schubert||Knoll (Lib)||Lib 12.4||Lib Hold|
|Stuart||van Holst Pellekaan (Lib)||Lib 20.1||Lib Hold|
|Taylor||Vlahos (ALP)||ALP 8.8||ALP Hold|
|Torrens||Wortley (ALP)||ALP 2.6||ALP Hold|
|Unley||Pisoni (Lib)||Lib 9.2||Lib Hold|
|Waite||Hamilton-Smith (Ind)||Lib 10.4*||Lib GAIN|
|West Torrens||Koutsantonis (ALP)||ALP 12.2||ALP Hold|
|Wright||Rankine (ALP)||ALP 4.5||ALP Hold|
South Australia Election 2018: Current Analysis, 3 February 2018
It’s not easy to get a read on such an election, but there are a couple of themes to note as the campaign begins:
- This could turn out like Queensland, in which the One Nation Party polled well in primary vote, but it translated into no seats. SA-BEST, however, is in a better position. No parties preferenced One Nation in Queensland, whereas the centrist SA-BEST does not yet have that problem. This is why we think it’s possible SA-BEST could win several seats.
- The redistribution set up an incoming Liberal majority, that may be scuppered by SA-BEST. Nobody quite knows how the SA-BEST preferences will flow, but Essential Research made the assumption that it was about 60 Liberal to 40 Labor.
- Remember, the Liberals took a 2PP win of 53-47 in the last election, only to lose it. This doesn’t look like it’ll be a 2PP 53-47 election for the Liberals this time, which means they may ultimately take a swing against them. Should that happen, you could get a fifth Labor win in a row.
- The best thing the Liberals can hope for right now is the fade of SA-BEST and for those disaffected Liberal voters to come home. One poll suggests that might be happening.
South Australia Election 2018: Links
South Australia’s Labor Party, led by the incumbent premier, Jay Weatherill MP.
The South Australia Liberal Party, which is led by Steven Marshall MP.
SA-BEST, the new party led by former senator Nick Xenophon.
The Greens SA; Mark Parnell MLC is the parliamentary leader.
Our Australian election calendar, with past results and current predictions.