South Australia Election 2018 Results and Predictions

South Australia Election 2018

Your outpost for South Australia Election 2018, from seat-by-seat predictions to analysis and the final results.

In the state’s 2014 election, the Liberals won a commanding 53 to 47 two-party preferred vote, but still got one fewer seat than Labor. The ALP made its vote count in critical seats, but with redistribution, the Liberals enter with a path to a majority.

This is what we would have said if Nick Xenophon’s party hadn’t been created. SA-BEST could take a wrecking ball to South Australian politics. Unlike what we saw in Queensland with the rise of One Nation, SA-Best hails from the political centre and could get a flow of preferences from moderate voters in both camps. If it’s as massive a primary vote shift as expected, the undertow could steer seats that nobody would expect to change hands. Whether or not Xenophon can break through is anyone’s guess at this point, however we are likely to see South Australia’s wildest election in recent memory.

South Australia Election 2018: Post-Election Analysis, 18 March 2018

Sixteen years of Labor rule in South Australia came to an end with the 2018 state election; Steven Marshall will be the state’s new premier. His Liberals will be the owners of a narrow majority government; the ABC projects they will win 25 out of 47 seats.

Since Mike Rann first led Labor back into power in a hung parliament, the Liberals have been Charlie Brown and Labor, Lucy stealing the football. Elections came and went, but Labor was never pried out, even when Rann left for Jay Weatherill. In 2014, the Liberals got 53 percent of the statewide two-party preferred vote and still lost the election. Now, finally, they are back with a majority, though final results are pending.

SA-BEST, to paraphrase Happy Gilmore, was a flop, flop, flop-a-roo. A January poll suggested they were close to 30 percent of the primary vote. Even more recent surveys had them anywhere from 15 to 20 percent. As the final numbers rolled in, Nick Xenophon’s party was just under fourteen percent. The more important bottom line is that they won no seats in the state parliament’s lower house. It appears they will gain a foothold in the Legislative Council, but that’s all.

The biggest surprise was the performance of Xenophon himself. Not only did he lose in the electorate of Hartley, but it wasn’t close. Incumbent Liberal member Vincent Tarzia picked up a large swing in his favor to end with about 58.6 on a 2PP basis. In fact, Xenophon barely came in second on primary votes, edging Labor by about one percent.

What turned out to be SA-BEST’s best electorate was Heysen, but even there, the new guys lost. Josh Teague of the Liberals went head-first into a swing but still holds the seat with a 2.1 percent margin. Their best primary vote was in Finniss with about 26 percent.

South Australia Election 2018: Final Pre-Election Analysis, 17 March 2018

They call this an “unpredictable election.” So, why are we trying to predict it? I mean, we already did below, a month and a half ago. The point is that the prediction we leveled in early February is as good as any that we can make today. Therefore, we are not changing it. Let’s see if our gut instincts from the beginning end up being right.

The Liberals are believed to have a slim primary vote lead over Labor. It’s that pesky SA-Best that nobody can figure out, and how they will affect two-party preferred breakdowns. There’s only one way to find out, and that’s to watch the count.

South Australia Election 2018: Current Overall Prediction, 3 February 2018

South Australia Election 2018 Prediction 2-3-18

South Australia Election 2018: Current Seat-By-Seat Prediction, 3 February 2018

Seat Held By Margin Predict
Adelaide Sanderson (Lib) Lib 2.0 Lib Hold
Badcoe Key (ALP) ALP 4.2 ALP Hold
Black Speirs (Lib) Lib 2.6 Lib Hold
Bragg Chapman (Lib) Lib 16.6 Lib Hold
Chaffey Whetstone (Lib) Lib 24.4 Lib Hold
Cheltenham Weatherill (ALP) ALP 14.4 ALP Hold
Colton Caica (ALP) Lib 3.7* Lib GAIN
Croydon Atkinson (ALP) ALP 19.6 ALP Hold
Davenport Duluk (Lib) Lib 8.9 Lib Hold
Dunstan Marshall (Lib) Lib 3.9 Lib Hold
Elder Digance (ALP) Lib 4.3* ALP Hold
Elizabeth Odenwalder (ALP) ALP 9.9 ALP Hold
Enfield Rau (ALP) ALP 6.2 ALP Hold
Finniss Pengilly (Lib) Lib 13.7 Lib Hold
Flinders Treloar (Lib) Lib 28.7 Lib Hold
Florey Bedford (Ind) ALP 9.2* ALP Gain
Frome Brock (Ind) Lib 10.5 vs ALP Lib GAIN
Gibson Wingard (Lib) Lib 3.2 Lib Hold
Giles Hughes (ALP) ALP 5.7 ALP Hold
Hammond Pederick (Lib) Lib 16.3 Lib Hold
Hartley Tarzia (Lib) Lib 3.3 SA-BEST GAIN
Heysen Redmond (Lib) Lib 13.2 Lib Hold
Hurtle Vale Cook (ALP) ALP 1.7 SA-BEST GAIN
Kauma Picton (ALP) ALP 8.4 ALP Hold
Kavel Goldsworthy (Lib) Lib 14.1 Lib Hold
King Gee (ALP) ALP 1.4 ALP Hold
Lee Mullighan (ALP) ALP 2.6 ALP Hold
Light Piccolo (ALP) ALP 3.9 ALP Hold
MacKillop Williams (Lib) Lib 26.7 Lib Hold
Mawson Bignell (ALP) Lib 3.2* SA-BEST GAIN
Morialta Gardner (Lib) Lib 11.6 Lib Hold
Morphett McFetridge (Ind) Lib 10.4* Lib GAIN
Mount Gambier Bell (Ind) Lib 21.6* Lib GAIN
Narungga Griffiths (Lib) Lib 13.8 Lib Hold
Newland Kenyon (ALP) Lib 0.1* ALP Hold
Playford Snelling (ALP) ALP 11.5 ALP Hold
Port Adelaide Close (ALP) ALP 12.5 ALP Hold
Ramsay Bettison (ALP) ALP 17.4 ALP Hold
Reynell Hildyard (ALP) ALP 9.8 ALP Hold
Schubert Knoll (Lib) Lib 12.4 Lib Hold
Stuart van Holst Pellekaan (Lib) Lib 20.1 Lib Hold
Taylor Vlahos (ALP) ALP 8.8 ALP Hold
Torrens Wortley (ALP) ALP 2.6 ALP Hold
Unley Pisoni (Lib) Lib 9.2 Lib Hold
Waite Hamilton-Smith (Ind) Lib 10.4* Lib GAIN
West Torrens Koutsantonis (ALP) ALP 12.2 ALP Hold
Wright Rankine (ALP) ALP 4.5 ALP Hold

South Australia Election 2018: Current Analysis, 3 February 2018

It’s not easy to get a read on such an election, but there are a couple of themes to note as the campaign begins:

  • This could turn out like Queensland, in which the One Nation Party polled well in primary vote, but it translated into no seats. SA-BEST, however, is in a better position. No parties preferenced One Nation in Queensland, whereas the centrist SA-BEST does not yet have that problem. This is why we think it’s possible SA-BEST could win several seats.
  • The redistribution set up an incoming Liberal majority, that may be scuppered by SA-BEST. Nobody quite knows how the SA-BEST preferences will flow, but Essential Research made the assumption that it was about 60 Liberal to 40 Labor.
  • Remember, the Liberals took a 2PP win of 53-47 in the last election, only to lose it. This doesn’t look like it’ll be a 2PP 53-47 election for the Liberals this time, which means they may ultimately take a swing against them. Should that happen, you could get a fifth Labor win in a row.
  • The best thing the Liberals can hope for right now is the fade of SA-BEST and for those disaffected Liberal voters to come home. One poll suggests that might be happening.

South Australia Election 2018: Links

South Australia’s Labor Party, led by the incumbent premier, Jay Weatherill MP.

The South Australia Liberal Party, which is led by Steven Marshall MP.

SA-BEST, the new party led by former senator Nick Xenophon.

The Greens SA; Mark Parnell MLC is the parliamentary leader.

Our Australian election calendar, with past results and current predictions.

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