Who will win Tasmania Election 2018?
Four years ago, Liberal leader Will Hodgman led his party to their first election victory since 1996. Labor has been by far the dominant party of Tasmanian politics, and the state’s pro-ALP bent could manifest itself again in the 2018 Tasmanian election.
Winning a second term would be uncommon, but not unprecented for Hodgman’s Liberals. Once in the 1980s and once in the 1990s was a Liberal government re-elected, but those were the only examples in the post-war era.
There is also a new face on the scene in Tasmanian politics. The Jacqui Lambie Network, spearheaded by former federal Senator Jacqui Lambie, will contest the 2018 election. Early poll numbers suggest they may be able to win a seat, and if so, that could throw extra chaos into a hung parliament.
Tasmania Election 2018 Results
Tasmania Election 2018: Final Overall Prediction, 1 March 2018
Tasmania Election 2018: Final Seat-By-Seat Prediction, 1 March 2018
Each electorate chooses five MPs, and Tasmania utilizes the Hare-Clark electoral system to select them.
|SEATS (5 MPs Each)||Current||Predict||Actual|
|Bass||3 Lib, 1 ALP, 1 Grn||3 Lib, 2 ALP||3 Lib, 2 ALP|
|Braddon||4 Lib, 1 ALP||3 Lib, 2 ALP||3 Lib, 2 ALP|
|Denison||2 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Grn||2 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Grn||2 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Grn|
|Franklin||3 Lib, 1 ALP, 1 Grn||2 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Grn||2 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Grn|
|Lyons||3 Lib, 2 ALP||3 Lib, 2 ALP||3 Lib, 2 ALP|
Tasmania Election 2018: Current Analysis, 1 March 2018
The final week of the election campaign showed the Liberal Party breaking away with a few public polls giving hope to the government. Both EMRS and ReachTEL have the Liberals ahead by double-digits over the Labor Party.
Updating our final seat predictions, we have Labor winning two in every electorate, which of course will not be enough. The Liberals are not on track to post the same vote total in 2018 as they did in 2014, however at 46 to 48 percent, they remain in good position to reach a majority.
What if they do not get a majority? Labor and the Greens can get together and form a government from the left, though 12 percent from the Greens suggest they will lose seats. As for other minor parties, the Jacqui Lambie Network looks like a non-factor. If they get in the high-single digits in any particular electorate, they might play spoiler, but that’s it.
Tasmania Election 2018: Past Analysis, 19 February 2018
It has been over two weeks since launching the election tracker for Tasmania, and we’ve yet to update our prediction. While things are just starting to heat up on the campaign trail, you know what isn’t? Opinion polling, of which there has been little, at least when it comes to the public media surveys. Internal polling has made the rounds, and when those leak, that’s usually because it’s what the political party wants you to see.
Whether we like to admit it or not, we rely on polling a lot for a sense of what’s going on, and when it’s absent, an ear-to-the-ground approach is required. Based on our best instincts at this stage, we are prepared to suggest the following: (1) The Liberals lead the primary vote, though at a reduced level from 2014, (2) The Lambie party is probably not going to substantially influence the outcome, and (3) The government will win 12 or 13 seats as previously expected.
Tasmania Election 2018: Past Analysis, 3 February 2018
A month away from the state election, the Liberals appear to be ahead narrowly. In a January 2018 poll by MediaReach, the Greens were down a tick from where they finished in 2014, while the Jacqui Lambie Network is very slightly outpacing the Palmer United Party from 2014.
The statewide numbers, however, do not tell the story. This is a seat-by-seat contest, with Lyons being one of the keys. This one takes up most of Tasmania’s centre, including the farther northern suburbs of Hobart, and the towns south and west of Launceston. Keeping their 3-2 majority would possibly mean the Liberals hanging on for a second term.
We find it highly unlikely that the Liberals will maintain their 4-1 edge in Braddon, the seat on Tasmania’s west coast. Were they to do so, Hodgman’s victory looks more certain. However, shedding a seat there seems the more likely outcome with the Liberals down substantially from their 2014 totals, at least according to the opinion polls.
Tasmania Election 2018: Supporting Links
The Tasmanian Liberal Party’s main website, led by Premier Will Hodgman MP.
Tasmanian Labor; Rebecca White MP, leader of the opposition.
The Greens Tasmania, led by Cassy O’Connor MP.
Jacqui Lambie Network, with Jacqui Lambie as its leader.
This is the site for the Tasmanian Electoral Commission, with information on how to vote, where, and when.
Finally, see our Australian election calendar with past news and political updates here.