Canada Election 2019 - Territories

Will we see lockstep results once again in Canadian Territories federal election 2019?

When Justin Trudeau won his majority in 2015, he swept all three territories of the north. They had none of the three seats before the election, but they kicked out two Conservative MPs and one NDP. One of them, Leona Aglukkaq of Nunavut, was a cabinet minister at the time of her defeat. By the way, she is running again in 2019. The seat she lost is held by Hunter Tootoo, formerly a Liberal and now an independent.

The Liberals won these three seats with totals between 47 and 54 percent in 2015, making all of them comfortable victories. Yet, if political fortunes are changing for the Liberals and Trudeau elsewhere in Canada, do those winds of change head north? One might think that these seats are out of sight and therefore out of mind, but if it is a minority government situation, the territories matter. Despite the comfortable victories here in 2015, anything can happen. Below, you will get to see our predictions for all three ridings as they stand right now.

If you also want to know how these ridings fit into the Canadian electoral picture overall, you can jump back to the main page.

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Canadian Territories Federal Election 2019 Seat-by-Seat Predictions

Northwest Territories
Michael McLeod (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold
Hunter Tootoo (Ind)
Prediction: Lib GAIN from Ind
Larry Bagnell (Lib)
Prediction: Lib Hold

October 18, 2019 Final Territories Predictions Update

Territories predicted seat totals: Lib 3.

The Liberals expect to hold all three seats in the north. Conservatives think Leona Aglukkaq can win Nunavut again, while the NDP seems to be making a play for the Northwest Territories. Any Liberal losses up here could be a crucial if the rest of the election plays out as predicted.

September 21, 2019 Territories Predictions Update

Territories predicted seat totals: Lib 3.

Polling is nearly impossible in the territories, but they tend to go the way that the rest of Canada does. With Liberal fortunes still up in general, they should do well in the north. The only riding in play might be Nunavut thanks to Leona Aglukkaq, and don’t be surprised if the CPC wins this open seat.

July 15, 2019 Territories Predictions Update

Territories predicted seat totals: Lib 3.

The Territories are as hard to predict as anywhere since nobody polls here and the voting populations are so small. It is safe therefore to assume that the Liberals will win them all. Should any seat flip, look to Nunavut: the sitting Liberal MP became an independent and is not running again, but former CPC cabinet minister Leona Aglukkaq is attempting a comeback.