With the 2017 British election fast approaching, the first question to be answered is if the Conservatives will win.
In government since 2010, the Tories are protecting a narrow majority. Opinion polls suggest that they will increase that majority, but in order to do that, they must first protect their 330 seats. At least, as many as possible.
We look at all 330 seats, organized by the size of their 2015 majority. Which Conservative seats are the most vulnerable, and which are the safest?
UK Election 2017: Tory Defense, All Seats
UK Election 2017: Key Conservative Seats
The most vulnerable Tory seat this time is Gower in southern Wales. It is, in fact, the most at-risk seat in the country with a majority of 27 votes. Bryon Davies took this open seat in 2015 from Labour on a 3.2 percent swing. He is running again, facing Antonia Antoniazzi for Labour. UKIP drew 11.2 percent in this constituency last time, making it potentially a steeper hill for Labour to climb in 2017 given UKIP’s collapse. Notably, Gower was held by Labour for 106 straight years, and had never been held by a Tory until two years ago.
Derby North is the second-most vulnerable seat on the board for the Conservatives. The Tories lost narrowly in 2010, and won by only 41 votes in 2015. UKIP presents itself as a problem here for Labour as well, having taken 14.6 percent in 2015. Even half of that vote going to the Conservatives could put it out of reach.
Rounding out the top ten most in-danger Tory seats are (3) Croydon Central, (4) Vale of Clywd, (5) Bury North, (6) Morley and Outwood, (7) Plymouth, Sutton, & Davenport, (8) Thurrock, (9) Brighton Kemptown, and (10) Telford. The latter of those, Telford, was won by only 730 votes. The Conservatives are defending only 14 seats with majorities below 1,000. Things could be worse for the Tories.
In case you were wondering, Theresa May is in no danger of losing her seat. Maidenhead is 329th on the list and the fourth-safest seat in the country. She won it big in 1997 when the Conservatives were getting wiped out. Labour drew less than 12 percent of the vote in 2015. May will face such star candidates as Lord Buckethead and Howling Laud Hope of the Monster Raving Loony Party.