UK Election 2017: Final Seat Predictions

UK Election 2017 final vote prediction

Today’s the day, and tonight’s the night. Before the wall-to-wall election coverage, we make our final seat predictions.

It’s been a wild campaign, between appalling terror attacks and changes in the polls. Even though most polls show the Conservatives ahead by a fair margin, there is a bit of uncertainty in what will happen.

Will late deciders break for Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn’s parties? Is the SNP going to hold its massive haul from 2015 together? Will UKIP collapse and save the Tories in key seats? Can the Liberal Democrats come back from the dead?

24 hours from now, we may not have all the answers, but we’ll have most of them.

UK Election 2017: Final Vote Predictions

UK Election 2017 final vote prediction

We had the idea that the Conservatives would win by about five percent. Then came the downward adjustment of all parties to include the Green, Plaid, and Northern Irish votes.

Our prediction is perhaps on the low end of the opinion polling average. If you believe in the “Shy Tory” effect, then we’re well under. Either way, at this stage, we do believe the consensus that the Conservatives will get the most votes. It would take a substantial upset for Labour to surge into first place. Never say never in politics, but it’s unlikely.

UK Election 2017: Final Seat Predictions

UK Election 2017 final seat prediction

Not a big variation from our last update. The Tories get up to 352, some of which is due to UKIP’s crash. Brexit crusaders in UKIP, at least a sizable chunk of them, will vote Conservative to make sure Labour and friends don’t stop it.

At this point, even though the polls tightened, we are not convinced that Labour is going to come close to victory. All elections come down to turnout, but if it goes the way the pollsters expect, it’s going to break the Tories’ way.

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