Our predictions and US governors elections 2018 results. In 2018, a majority of states elect a new governor. Who will the states elect as their chief executives?
In 2018, as every year on Electionarium, we make our “No Tossups” promise. In every race, we will pick a winner, even if it seems too close to call. We reserve the right to update our predictions over the course of the year, and those updates are below.
If you make it all the way to the bottom, you get some additional analysis. How fun.
Other 2018 US Election Pages: US House Election 2018 | US Senate Election 2018
NAVIGATE THE 2018 GOVERNORS RACES: State-by-State Predictions | Rating Changes | Analysis
Updates to the individual listings below to be catalogued at the top of the page by date.
Seat Safety Key
| Weak Lean (1)
|| Somewhat Safe (2)
||| Safe (3)
|||| Very Safe (4)
US Governors Elections 2018: Last Update October 7, 2018
| Alabama |
|---|
| Kay Ivey (R) |
| Predict: Rep Hold ||| |
| Alaska |
|---|
| Bill Walker (I) |
| Predict: REP GAIN | |
| Arizona |
|---|
| Doug Ducey (R) |
| Predict: Rep Hold || |
| Arkansas |
|---|
| Asa Hutchinson (R) |
| Predict: Rep Hold ||| |
| California |
|---|
| Jerry Brown (D) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: Dem Hold ||| |
| Colorado |
|---|
| John Hickenlooper (D) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: Dem Hold | |
| Connecticut |
|---|
| Dan Malloy (D) – NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: Dem Hold | |
| Florida |
|---|
| Rick Scott (R) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: Dem GAIN | |
| Georgia |
|---|
| Nathan Deal (R) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: Rep Hold | |
| Hawaii |
|---|
| David Ige (D) |
| Predict: Dem Hold |||| |
| Idaho |
|---|
| Butch Otter (R) – NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: Rep Hold ||| |
| Illinois |
|---|
| Bruce Rauner (R) |
| Predict: DEM GAIN || |
| Iowa |
|---|
| Kim Reynolds (R) |
| Predict: Rep Hold | |
| Kansas |
|---|
| Jeff Colyer (R) – LOST RENOMINATION |
| Predict: Rep Hold | |
| Maine |
|---|
| Paul LePage (R) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: DEM GAIN | |
| Maryland |
|---|
| Larry Hogan (R) |
| Predict: Rep Hold || |
| Massachusetts |
|---|
| Charlie Baker (R) |
| Predict: Rep Hold ||| |
| Michigan |
|---|
| Rick Snyder (R) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: DEM GAIN || |
| Minnesota |
|---|
| Mark Dayton (D) – NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: Dem Hold || |
| Nebraska |
|---|
| Pete Ricketts (R) |
| Predict: Rep Hold ||| |
| Nevada |
|---|
| Brian Sandoval (R) – OPEN SEAT |
| Predict: DEM GAIN | |
| New Hampshire |
|---|
| Chris Sununu (R) |
| Predict: Rep Hold | |
| New Mexico |
|---|
| Susana Martinez (R) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: DEM GAIN | |
| New York |
|---|
| Andrew Cuomo (D) |
| Predict: Dem Hold |||| |
| Ohio |
|---|
| John Kasich (R) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: Rep Hold | |
| Oklahoma |
|---|
| Mary Fallin (R) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: Rep Hold | |
| Oregon |
|---|
| Kate Brown (D) |
| Predict: Dem Hold | |
| Pennsylvania |
|---|
| Tom Wolf (D) |
| Predict: Dem Hold ||| |
| Rhode Island |
|---|
| Gina Raimondo (D) |
| Predict: Dem Hold || |
| South Carolina |
|---|
| Henry McMaster (R) |
| Predict: Rep Hold ||| |
| South Dakota |
|---|
| Dennis Daugaard (R) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: Rep Hold || |
| Tennessee |
|---|
| Bill Haslam (R) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: Rep Hold || |
| Texas |
|---|
| Greg Abbott (R) |
| Predict: Rep Hold ||| |
| Vermont |
|---|
| Phil Scott (R) |
| Predict: Rep Hold || |
| Wisconsin |
|---|
| Scott Walker (R) |
| Predict: Dem GAIN | |
| Wyoming |
|---|
| Matt Mead (R) – TERM-LIMITED |
| Predict: Rep Hold ||| |
US Governors Elections 2018: Full List of Ratings Changes
Most recent at top.
| October 7, 2018 |
|---|
| Arizona (R1 to R2); Arkansas (R3 to R4); Florida (R1 to D1); Oklahoma (R3 to R1); Pennsylvania (D2 to D3); South Dakota (R3 to R2); Tennessee (R1 to R2); Wisconsin (R1 to D1) |
| August 26, 2018 |
| Oregon (D2 to D1); Michigan (D1 to D2); Kansas (R2 to R1); Alaska (I1 to R1) |
| July 22, 2018 |
| Tennessee (R2 to R1); Nevada (R1 to D1); Hawaii (D3 to D4); Arizona (R3 to R1) |
| June 16, 2018 |
| Georgia (R2 to R1); Illinois (D1 to D2); Massachusetts (R2 to R3); Oregon (D3 to D2); Wisconsin (R2 to R1); Iowa (R2 to R1) |
US Governors Elections 2018: October 7, 2018 Analysis
Democrats are now on-track to gain seven governorships while the Republicans will salvage a single gain in Alaska.
The GOP still retains a chance of picking up Oregon, given Knute Buehler’s moderate stances and Kate Brown’s generally weak poll numbers, but it’s a hard sell in a possible Democratic year.
Two races we moved into the Democratic column are Florida and Wisconsin. Andrew Gillum has led in virtually every poll since the primaries, while Scott Walker has also trailed for a while. Asking for a third term can sometimes be a bridge too far for voters who are seeking change.
South Dakota is showing signs of getting closer, and this could be one in November where people wonder how it got so competitive on election night. Charlie Cook is now calling it a “toss-up” (which we would not do) given less-than-stellar polling for Kristi Noem (R).
Oklahoma is also a governorship they will have to fight to hold. Exiting governor Mary Fallin has high unfavorables and Democrats have elected governors in this very red state in this century. It is not impossible that Drew Edmondson wins the race, just like it’s also possible that Laura Kelly (D) wins next door in Kansas.
Not all is lost for the Republicans, as several governorships moved in their direction. Arizona is firming up for Doug Ducey, the gubernatorial race isn’t going to be the closer of the two big ones in Tennessee, and Arkansas is now “very safe.”
US Governors Elections 2018: August 26, 2018 Analysis
With a few states still awaiting primaries and runoffs, we are awaiting our next big batch of race re-ratings, and the first of the Fall. The only good news for the Republicans is that Alaska is moving more into their column, and they are surprisingly competitive in Oregon. Otherwise, other races are moving away from them, like Connecticut, Michigan, and Kansas. The latter of those is still a GOP hold, but close.
Expect the Republicans to lose a handful of governorships; it’s just figuring out which ones at this point.
US Governors Elections 2018: July 22, 2018 Analysis
We have four mid-summer ratings changes on the US gubernatorial elections. More could have come, but four was a good place to stop. First, we notched Arizona way down from a safe Republican seat to a weak GOP lean. Incumbent Doug Ducey’s poll numbers are not nearly as promising as Republicans hoped, though he is still marginally ahead.
Second, we pushed Hawaii into very safe Democratic territory, which it is. It does not matter which Democrat wins the primary: there is no Linda Lingle-type candidate on the GOP side to make it competitive.
Third, Nevada is a flip to a Democratic gain. Adam Laxalt is a top-tier Republican candidate and he’s got more than a shot, but with the bluish tint of the state, it appears he is falling behind Steve Sisolak.
Finally, we shifted Tennessee more towards the middle as a weak GOP hold. The Volunteer State could be a problem for Republicans in November, with the Senate race also starting to go sideways on them.
We kept Oregon where it is for now (Democratic somewhat safe), but Knute Buehler (R) is going to make a close run at Governor Kate Brown (D). Oregon, however, is like Charlie Brown, Lucy, and the football for Republicans, so we need to see some strong poll numbers for Buehler before changing the rating.
US Governors Elections 2018: June 16, 2018 Analysis
It’s still too early in the cycle to start flip-flopping seats like crazy, but we are moving a bunch of those ratings in that direction. In total, five ratings were changed, four of them closer to even and just one more safely. That, ironically, was Massachusetts, where Republican incumbent Charlie Baker is nursing a 40-point lead in the polls. Democrats remain on track for at least a handful of gubernatorial gains, including Illinois, Maine, and Michigan. If the winds of change blow more strongly on election night, several more could flip.
US Governors Elections 2018: February 8, 2018 Analysis
No ratings changes yet in our first look back at the US governor races to come this year. Let’s highlight one of the many open seat contests in Connecticut. Reliably blue on the federal level, Connecticut has a long history of electing Republican governors, even in recent times. Democratic incumbent Dan Malloy squeaked out wins in 2010 and 2014, but prior to that, Republicans controlled the office for 16 years. These days, it takes a moderate Republican to win in New England. Keep an eye out for Erin Stewart, the Republican mayor of New Britain and a young up-and-comer in state politics.
US Governors Elections 2018: January 1, 2018 Analysis
As of the start of this year, we predict a four-seat gain for the Democrats in the upcoming gubernatorial elections. A few of these are open seats in traditionally bluer states, such as Maine and New Mexico. Another is such a state with a sitting governor, like Illinois. At least 17 states will elect a new governor in 2018, so the possibility of a volatile election year is high.
The Electionarium United States election calendar can be found here.
