US House Elections 2018 Predictions and Results

Will the Democrats retake the House, or does the Blue Wave fizzle?

US House Elections 2018 Predictions

This is the home for the US House elections 2018, featuring our seat-by-seat predictions and results. Who will control the House from 2018 and beyond?

In the 2016 election, the Republicans won 241 seats while the Democrats claimed 194. Democrats must have a net gain of two dozen, or 24 seats, to retake the majority. The GOP has been the majority party since January 2011, and has been in charge for all but four years since January 1995.

Those who survive this comprehensive listing of state-by-state predictions will get to read a spot of current analysis on the election.

Updates to the individual listings below to be listed at the top of the page by date.

Other 2018 US Election Pages: US Senate Election 2018 | US Governor Elections 2018

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US House Elections 2018 Seat Safety Key
| Weak Lean (1)
|| Strong Lean (2)
||| Safe (3)
|||| Very Safe (4)

US House Elections 2018: Last Update October 7, 2018

US House Election 2018 prediction 10-7-18 D 220 R 215

US House Elections 2018: Alabama

Alabama-01 (Mobile, Brewton, Bay Minette)
Bradley Byrne (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Alabama-02 (Montgomery [part], Dothan, Troy)
Martha Roby (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Alabama-03 (Auburn, Oxford, Tuskegee)
Mike Rogers (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Alabama-04 (Gadsden, Cullman, Haleyville)
Robert Aderholt (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Alabama-05 (Huntsvile, Florence, Stevenson)
Mo Brooks (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Alabama-06 (Hoover, Gardendale, Alabaster)
Gary Palmer (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Alabama-07 (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery [part])
Terri Sewell (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Alaska

Alaska-At Large
Don Young (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||

US House Elections 2018: Arizona

Arizona-01 (Flagstaff, Safford, Casa Grande)
Tom O’Halleran (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |
Arizona-02 (Tucson [part], Sierra Vista, Willcox)
Martha McSally (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Arizona-03 (Yuma [part], Tucson [part], Buckeye)
Raúl Grijalva (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Arizona-04 (Apache Junction, Yuma [part], Kingman)
Paul Gosar (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Arizona-05 (Gilbert, Queen Creek, Mesa [part])
Andy Biggs (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Arizona-06 (Scottsdale [part], Fountain Hills, Phoenix [part])
David Schweikert (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Arizona-07 (Phoenix [part], Glendale)
Ruben Gallego (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Arizona-08 (Surprise, Peoria, El Mirage)
Debbie Lesko (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Arizona-09 (Phoenix [part], Mesa [part], Tempe)
Kyrsten Sinema (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Arkansas

Arkansas-01 (Jonesboro, West Memphis, Mountain Home)
Rick Crawford (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Arkansas-02 (Little Rock, Searcy, Benton)
French Hill (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Arkansas-03 (Fayetteville, Fort Smith, Russellville)
Steve Womack (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Arkansas-04 (Texarkana, Pine Bluff, Hot Springs)
Bruce Westerman (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: California

California-01 (Redding, Chico, Yreka)
Doug LaMalfa (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
California-02 (Eureka, Ukiah, Petaluma)
Jared Huffman (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-03 (Fairfield, Davis, Yuba City)
John Garamendi (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
California-04 (Tahoe, Roseville, Yosemite)
Tom McClintock (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
California-05 (Santa Rosa, Napa, Vallejo)
Mike Thompson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-06 (Sacramento [part])
Doris Matsui (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-07 (Sacramento [part], Folsom, Elk Grove)
Ami Bera (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
California-08 (Death Valley, Victorville, San Bernardino [part])
Paul Cook (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
California-09 (Stockton, Lodi)
Jerry McNerney (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
California-10 (Modesto, Tracy, Turlock)
Jeff Denham (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
California-11 (Richmond, Concord, Pittsburg)
Mark DeSaulnier (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-12 (San Francisco [part])
Nancy Pelosi (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-13 (Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro)
Barbara Lee (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-14 (San Mateo, Pacifica, San Francisco [part])
Jackie Speier (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-15 (Hayward, Livermore, Union City)
Eric Swalwell (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-16 (Fresno [part], Merced, Los Banos)
Jim Costa (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
California-17 (San Jose [part], Sunnyvale, Fremont)
Ro Khanna (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-18 (Palo Alto, Saratoga, Boulder Creek)
Anna Eshoo (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-19 (San Jose [part], Morgan Hill)
Zoe Lofgren (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-20 (Monterey, Santa Cruz, Soledad)
Jimmy Panetta (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-21 (Bakersfield [part], Hanford, Mendota)
David Valadao (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
California-22 (Fresno [part], Clovis, Visalia)
Devin Nunes (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
California-23 (Bakersfield [part], Porterville, California City)
Kevin McCarthy (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
California-24 (San Luis Obispo, Santa Maria, Santa Barbara)
Salud Carbajal (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
California-25 (Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley [part])
Steve Knight (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
California-26 (Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, Point Mugu)
Julia Brownley (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
California-27 (Alhambra, Monterey Park, Pasadena)
Judy Chu (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-28 (Hollywood, Glendale, Burbank)
Adam Schiff (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-29 (Van Nuys, North Hollywood, San Fernando)
Tony Cardenas (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-30 (Studio City, Sherman Oaks, Northridge)
Brad Sherman (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-31 (Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino [part], Redlands)
Pete Aguilar (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
California-32 (West Covina, Azusa, San Dimas)
Grace Napolitano (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-33 (Malibu, Santa Monica, Rancho Palos Verdes)
Ted Lieu (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-34 (Downtown Los Angeles, Highland Park)
Jimmy Gomez (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-35 (Pomona, Ontario, Fontana)
Norma Torres (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-36 (Palm Springs, Hemet, La Quinta)
Raul Ruiz (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
California-37 (Park Mesa Heights, Mar Vista, Westwood)
Karen Bass (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-38 (Whittier, Norwalk, Cerritos)
Linda Sanchez (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
California-39 (Brea, Yorba Linda, Chino Hills)
Ed Royce (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
California-40 (Downey, Paramount, Commerce)
Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-41 (Riverside, Moreno Valley, Perris)
Mark Takano (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
California-42 (Corona, Murrieta, Menifee)
Ken Calvert (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
California-43 (Inglewood, Gardena, Torrance)
Maxine Waters (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-44 (Lynwood, Compton, Carson)
Nanette Barragan (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-45 (Irvine, Mission Viejo, Tustin)
Mimi Walters (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
California-46 (Anaheim, Orange, Santa Ana)
Lou Correa (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
California-47 (Long Beach, Cypress, Garden Grove)
Alan Lowenthal (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
California-48 (Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel)
Dana Rohrabacher (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
California-49 (San Clemente, Oceanside, Encinitas)
Darrell Issa (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
California-50 (Temecula, Escondido, Lakeside)
Duncan Hunter (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
California-51 (San Diego [part], Chula Vista, El Centro)
Juan Vargas (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
California-52 (San Diego [part], La Jolla, Poway)
Scott Peters (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
California-53 (San Diego [part], El Cajon, Bonita)
Susan Davis (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Colorado

Colorado-01 (Denver, Sheridan)
Diana DeGette (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Colorado-02 (Boulder, Vail, Fort Collins)
Jared Polis (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Colorado-03 (Grand Junction, Pueblo, Aspen)
Scott Tipton (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Colorado-04 (Greeley, Castle Rock, Trinidad)
Ken Buck (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Colorado-05 (Colorado Springs, Buena Vista)
Doug Lamborn (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Colorado-06 (Littleton, Centennial, Aurora)
Mike Coffman (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Colorado-07 (Thornton, Arvada, Golden)
Ed Perlmutter (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||

US House Elections 2018: Connecticut

Connecticut-01 (Hartford, Bristol, Windsor Locks)
John Larson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Connecticut-02 (New London, Norwich, Vernon)
Joe Courtney (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Connecticut-03 (New Haven, Milford, Waterbury [part])
Rosa DeLauro (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Connecticut-04 (Bridgeport, Stamford, Ridgefield)
Jim Himes (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Connecticut-05 (Waterbury [part], New Britain, Danbury)
Elizabeth Esty (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold ||

US House Elections 2018: Delaware

Delaware-At Large
Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Florida

Florida-01 (Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, DeFuniak Springs)
Matt Gaetz (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Florida-02 (Tallahassee [part], Panama City, Cedar Key)
Neal Dunn (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Florida-03 (Ocala, Gainesville, Palatka)
Ted Yoho (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Florida-04 (St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Jacksonville [part])
John Rutherford (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Florida-05 (Tallahassee [part], Madison, Jacksonville [part])
Al Lawson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Florida-06 (Daytona Beach, Deltona, Palm Coast)
Ron DeSantis (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Florida-07 (Orlando [part], Sanford)
Stephanie Murphy (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |
Florida-08 (Cocoa, Melbourne, Vero Beach)
Bill Posey (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Florida-09 (Kissimmee, Winter Haven, Orlando [part])
Darren Soto (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Florida-10 (Orlando [part], Apopka)
Val Demings (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Florida-11 (Spring Hill, Bushnell, The Villages)
Dan Webster (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Florida-12 (Dade City, Tarpon Springs, Dunedin)
Gus Bilirakis (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Florida-13 (Saint Petersburg, Largo, Clearwater)
Charlie Crist (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |
Florida-14 (Tampa, Lutz)
Kathy Castor (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Florida-15 (Brandon, Lakeland, Lake Louisa)
Dennis Ross (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Florida-16 (Sarasota, Bradenton)
Vern Buchanan (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Florida-17 (Punta Gorda, Venice, Okeechobee)
Tom Rooney (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Florida-18 (Port St. Lucie, Indiantown, Juno Beach)
Brian Mast (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Florida-19 (Fort Myers, Bonita Springs, Naples)
Francis Rooney (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Florida-20 (Palm Beach [part], Fort Lauderdale [part], Miramar [part])
Alcee Hastings (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Florida-21 (Palm Beach [part], Boynton Beach, Delray Beach)
Lois Frankel (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Florida-22 (Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale [part], Deerfield Beach)
Ted Deutch (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Florida-23 (Hollywood Beach, Davie, Weston)
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Florida-24 (Miami [part], Opa Locka, Miami Gardens)
Frederica Wilson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Florida-25 (Hialeah, Big Cypress, LaBelle)
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Florida-26 (Florida Keys, Homestead, Kendall Lakes)
Carlos Curbelo (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Florida-27 (Miami [part], Kendall, Palmetto Bay)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |

US House Elections 2018: Georgia

Georgia-01 (Savannah, Brunswick, Waycross)
Buddy Carter (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Georgia-02 (Albany, Columbus, Macon [part])
Sanford Bishop (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Georgia-03 (LaGrange, Carrollton, Peachtree City)
Drew Ferguson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Georgia-04 (Covington, Conyers, Stone Mountain)
Hank Johnson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Georgia-05 (Atlanta, College Park)
John Lewis (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Georgia-06 (LaGrange, Carrollton, Peachtree City)
Karen Handel (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Georgia-07 (Lawrenceville, Norcross, Sugar Hill)
Rob Woodall (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Georgia-08 (Macon [part], Tifton, Valdosta)
Austin Scott (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Georgia-09 (Toccoa, Gainesville, Commerce)
Doug Collins (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Georgia-10 (Athens, Monticello, Milledgeville)
Jody Hice (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Georgia-11 (Canton, Kennesaw, Marietta)
Barry Loudermilk (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Georgia-12 (Augusta, Statesboro, Douglas)
Rick Allen (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Georgia-13 (Powder Springs, Douglasville, Stockbridge)
David Scott (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Georgia-14 (Dalton, Rome, Bremen)
Tom Graves (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Hawaii

Hawaii-01 (Honolulu, Waipahu, Mililani)
Colleen Hanabusa (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Hawaii-02 (Hilo, Maui, Kauai)
Tulsi Gabbard (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Idaho

Idaho-01 (Coeur d’Alene, Nampa, Boise [part])
Raul Labrador (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Idaho-02 (Boise [part], Pocatello, Idaho Falls)
Mike Simpson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Illinois

Illinois-01 (Chicago [part], Evergreen Park, Mokena)
Bobby Rush (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Illinois-02 (Chicago [part], South Holland, Kankakee)
Robin Kelly (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Illinois-03 (Chicago [part], Bridgeview, Lockport)
Dan Lipinski (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Illinois-04 (Chicago [part], Cicero)
Luis Gutierrez (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Illinois-05 (Chicago [part], Norridge, Elmhurst)
Mike Quigley (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Illinois-06 (Lake Zurich, Wheaton, Westmont)
Peter Roskam (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Illinois-07 (Chicago [part], Forest Park, Bellwood)
Danny Davis (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Illinois-08 (Elgin, Schaumburg, Addison)
Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Illinois-09 (Chicago [part], Evanston, Mount Prospect)
Jan Schakowsky (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Illinois-10 (Waukegan, Round Lake, Highland Park)
Brad Schneider (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Illinois-11 (Aurora, Bolingbrook, Joliet)
Bill Foster (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Illinois-12 (East St. Louis, Mount Vernon, Cairo)
Mike Bost (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Illinois-13 (Springfield, Champaign, Decatur)
Rodney Davis (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Illinois-14 (Antioch, Sycamore, Oswego)
Randy Hultgren (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Illinois-15 (Danville, Centralia, Harrisburg)
John Shimkus (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Illinois-16 (Rockford [part], DeKalb, Watseka)
Adam Kinzinger (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Illinois-17 (Rockford [part], Peoria [part], Moline)
Cheri Bustos (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Illinois-18 (Peoria [part], Quincy, Chatham)
Darin LaHood (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Indiana

Indiana-01 (Gary, Michigan City, Valparaiso)
Peter Visclosky (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Indiana-02 (South Bend, Plymouth, Peru)
Jackie Walorski (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Indiana-03 (Fort Wayne, Angola, Portland)
Jim Banks (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Indiana-04 (Kokomo, Lafayette, Crawfordsville)
Todd Rokita (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Indiana-05 (Marion, Carmel, Indianapolis [part])
Susan Brooks (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Indiana-06 (Muncie, Columbus, Versailles)
Luke Messer (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Indiana-07 (Indianapolis [part], Beech Grove)
André Carson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Indiana-08 (Evansville, Washington, Terre Haute)
Larry Bucshon (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Indiana-09 (Jeffersonville, Bloomington, Greenwood)
Trey Hollingsworth (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Iowa

Iowa-01 (Dubuque, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids)
Rod Blum (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Iowa-02 (Davenport, Iowa City, Ottumwa)
Dave Loebsack (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Iowa-03 (Des Moines, Council Bluffs)
David Young (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Iowa-04 (Sioux City, Ames, Mason City)
Steve King (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Kansas

Kansas-01 (Goodland, Dodge City, Salina)
Roger Marshall (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Kansas-02 (Topeka, Lawrence, Pittsburg)
Lynn Jenkins (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Kansas-03 (Kansas City, Overland Park, Olathe)
Kevin Yoder (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Kansas-04 (Wichita, El Dorado, Pratt)
Ron Estes (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Kentucky

Kentucky-01 (Paducah, Henderson, Campbellsville)
James Comer (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Kentucky-02 (Bowling Green, Owensboro, Elizabethtown)
Brett Guthrie (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Kentucky-03 (Louisville, Jeffersontown)
John Yarmuth (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Kentucky-04 (Ashland, Covington, Shelbyville)
Thomas Massie (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Kentucky-05 (Somerset, Hazard, Grayson)
Hal Rogers (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Kentucky-06 (Lexington, Frankfort, Richmond)
Andy Barr (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |

US House Elections 2018: Louisiana

Louisiana-01 (Metairie, Covington, Houma)
Steve Scalise (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Louisiana-02 (New Orleans, Donaldsonville, Baton Rouge [part])
Cedric Richmond (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Louisiana-03 (Lafayette, Lake Charles, Morgan City)
Clay Higgins (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Louisiana-04 (Shreveport, Natchitoches, Ville Platte)
Mike Johnson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Louisiana-05 (Monroe, Alexandria, Bogalusa)
Ralph Abraham (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Louisiana-06 (Baton Rouge [part], Thibodaux, Destrehan)
Garret Graves (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Maine

Maine-01 (Portland, Augusta, Kittery)
Chellie Pingree (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Maine-02 (Bangor, Lewiston, Caribou)
Bruce Poliquin (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |

US House Elections 2018: Maryland

Maryland-01 (Salisbury, Elkton, Bel Air)
Andy Harris (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Maryland-02 (Aberdeen, Dundalk, Towson [part])
Dutch Ruppersberger (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Maryland-03 (Annapolis, Baltimore [part], Olney)
John Sarbanes (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Maryland-04 (Severna Park, Landover, Oxon Hill)
Anthony Brown (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Maryland-05 (College Park [part], Bowie, La Plata)
Steny Hoyer (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Maryland-06 (Cumberland, Hagerstown, Gaithersburg)
John Delaney (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Maryland-07 (Baltimore [part], Columbia [part], Cockeysville [part])
Elijah Cummings (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Maryland-08 (Bethesda, Rockville, Westminster)
Jamie Raskin (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Massachusetts

Massachusetts-01 (Springfield, Pittsfield, Sturbridge)
Richard Neal (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Massachusetts-02 (Worcester, Amherst, Leominster)
Jim McGovern (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Massachusetts-03 (Haverhill, Lowell, Hudson)
Niki Tsongas (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Massachusetts-04 (Newton, Taunton, Fall River [part])
Joe Kennedy III (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Massachusetts-05 (Revere, Waltham, Framingham)
Katherine Clark (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Massachusetts-06 (Newburyport, Salem, Wilmington)
Seth Moulton (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Massachusetts-07 (Boston [part], Cambridge [part], Randolph)
Mike Capuano (D) — LOST RENOMINATION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Massachusetts-08 (Boston [part], Brockton, Hingham)
Stephen Lynch (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Massachusetts-09 (Cape Cod, Plymouth, New Bedford)
Bill Keating (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Michigan

Michigan-01 (Upper Peninsula, Traverse City, Alpena)
Jack Bergman (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Michigan-02 (Holland, Muskegon, Ludington)
Bill Huizenga (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Michigan-03 (Grand Rapids, Ionia, Battle Creek)
Justin Amash (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Michigan-04 (Cadillac, Mount Pleasant, Midland)
John Moolenaar (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Michigan-05 (Flint, Saginaw, Bay City)
Dan Kildee (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Michigan-06 (Kalamazoo, Benton Harbor, Douglas)
Fred Upton (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Michigan-07 (Monroe, Jackson, Waverly)
Tim Walberg (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Michigan-08 (Lansing, Howell, Rochester)
Mike Bishop (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Michigan-09 (Warren, Mount Clemens, Royal Oak)
Sander Levin (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Michigan-10 (Port Huron, Washington, Bad Axe)
Paul Mitchell (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Michigan-11 (Plymouth, Novi, Troy)
Dave Trott (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Michigan-12 (Ann Arbor, Dearborn, Trenton)
Debbie Dingell (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Michigan-13 (Detroit [part], Wayne, Romulus)
Vacant – Previously Democratic
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Michigan-14 (Detroit [part], Southfield, Farmington Hills)
Brenda Lawrence (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Minnesota

Minnesota-01 (Rochester, Mankato, Worthington)
Tim Walz (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |
Minnesota-02 (Eagan, Northfield, Wabasha)
Jason Lewis (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Minnesota-03 (Maple Grove, Minnetonka, Bloomington)
Erik Paulsen (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Minnesota-04 (Saint Paul, Stillwater, White Bear Lake)
Betty McCollum (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Minnesota-05 (Minneapolis, Richfield, Fridley)
Keith Ellison (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Minnesota-06 (St. Cloud, Andover, Buffalo)
Tom Emmer (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Minnesota-07 (Marshall, Alexandria, Bemidji)
Collin Peterson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Minnesota-08 (Brainerd, Duluth, International Falls)
Rick Nolan (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |

US House Elections 2018: Mississippi

Mississippi-01 (Tupelo, Corinth, Columbus)
Trent Kelly (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Mississippi-02 (Clarksdale, Vicksburg, Jackson [part])
Bennie Thompson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Mississippi-03 (McComb, Starkville, Jackson [part])
Gregg Harper (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Mississippi-04 (Hattiesburg, Gulfport, Biloxi)
Steven Palazzo (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Missouri

Missouri-01 (St. Louis, Overland, Florissant)
Lacy Clay (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Missouri-02 (Chesterfield, Creve Coeur, Fenton)
Ann Wagner (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Missouri-03 (O’Fallon, Jefferson City, Union)
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Missouri-04 (Columbia, Lebanon, Warrensburg)
Vicky Hartzler (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Missouri-05 (Kansas City, Independence, Marshall)
Emanuel Cleaver (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Missouri-06 (Saint Joseph, Kirksville, Hannibal)
Sam Graves (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Missouri-07 (Springfield, Joplin, Branson)
Billy Long (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Missouri-08 (Rolla, Cape Girardeau, Poplar Bluff)
Jason Smith (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Montana

Montana-At Large
Greg Gianforte (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |

US House Elections 2018: Nebraska

Nebraska-01 (Lincoln, Columbus, Bellevue)
Jeff Fortenberry (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Nebraska-02 (Omaha, Papillion, Waterloo)
Don Bacon (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Nebraska-03 (Scottsbluff, North Platte, Grand Island)
Adrian Smith (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Nevada

Nevada-01 (Las Vegas [part], Paradise, Sunrise)
Dina Titus (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Nevada-02 (Reno, Winnemucca, Elko)
Mark Amodei (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Nevada-03 (Henderson, Summerlin South, Searchlight)
Jacky Rosen (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |
Nevada-04 (North Las Vegas, Las Vegas [part], Tonopah)
Ruben Kihuen (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |

US House Elections 2018: New Hampshire

New Hampshire-01 (Manchester, Rochester, Conway)
Carol Shea-Porter (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |
New Hampshire-02 (Nashua, Concord, Lebanon, Berlin)
Annie Kuster (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: New Jersey

New Jersey-01 (Camden, Cherry Hill, Glassboro)
Donald Norcross (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
New Jersey-02 (Atlantic City, Cape May, Millville)
Frank LoBiondo (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
New Jersey-03 (Toms River, Mount Laurel, Bordentown)
Tom MacArthur (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
New Jersey-04 (Wall, Freehold, Trenton [part])
Chris Smith (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
New Jersey-05 (Washington, Sussex, New Milford)
Josh Gottheimer (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |
New Jersey-06 (Long Branch, Perth Amboy, Metuchen)
Frank Pallone (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
New Jersey-07 (Flemington, Dover, Summit)
Leonard Lance (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
New Jersey-08 (Elizabeth, Union City, Newark [part])
Albio Sires (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New Jersey-09 (Paterson, Fort Lee, East Rutherford)
Bill Pascrell (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
New Jersey-10 (Jersey City [part], Newark [part], Linden)
Donald Payne Jr. (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New Jersey-11 (Sparta, Pompton Lakes, Morristown)
Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
New Jersey-12 (Trenton [part], East Brunswick, Scotch Plains)
Bonnie Watson-Coleman (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: New Mexico

New Mexico-01 (Albuquerque, Moriarty, Mountainair)
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
New Mexico-02 (Roswell, Carlsbad, Las Cruces)
Steve Pearce (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |
New Mexico-03 (Santa Fe, Clovis, Farmington)
Ben Ray Luján (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: New York

New York-01 (Smithtown, Riverhead, The Hamptons)
Lee Zeldin (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
New York-02 (Massapequa, Islip, Sayville)
Pete King (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
New York-03 (Huntington, Great Neck, Hicksville)
Tom Suozzi (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
New York-04 (Long Beach, Hempstead, Westbury)
Kathleen Rice (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
New York-05 (Rockaway, Jamaica, Elmont)
Gregory Meeks (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New York-06 (Bayside, Flushing, Elmhurst)
Grace Meng (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New York-07 (Ridgewood, Chinatown, Park Slope)
Nydia Velazquez (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New York-08 (Bedford-Stuyvesant, Canarsie, Coney Island)
Hakeem Jeffries (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New York-09 (Prospect Park, Flatbush, Sheepshead Bay)
Yvette Clarke (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New York-10 (Upper West Side, Tribeca, New Utrecht)
Jerrold Nadler (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New York-11 (Staten Island, Fort Hamilton, Gravesend)
Dan Donovan (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
New York-12 (Upper East Side, East Village, Astoria)
Carolyn Maloney (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New York-13 (Harlem, Washington Heights, Kingsbridge)
Adriano Espaillat (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New York-14 (Woodside, Throggs Neck, City Island)
Joe Crowley (D) — LOST RENOMINATION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New York-15 (Fordham, Mott Haven, Castle Hill)
Jose Serrano (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New York-16 (Yonkers, New Rochelle, Rye)
Eliot Engel (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
New York-17 (White Plains, Peekskill, Suffern)
Nita Lowey (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
New York-18 (Poughkeepsie, Katonah, Middletown)
Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
New York-19 (Oneonta, Hudson, Kingston)
John Faso (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
New York-20 (Albany, Schenectady, Saratoga Springs)
Paul Tonko (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
New York-21 (Adirondacks, Watertown, Plattsburgh)
Elise Stefanik (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
New York-22 (Binghamton, Utica, Cortland)
Claudia Tenney (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
New York-23 (Dunkirk, Elmira, Ithaca)
Tom Reed (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
New York-24 (Syracuse, Oswego, Auburn)
John Katko (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
New York-25 (Rochester, Henrietta, Brockport)
Vacant — Previously Democratic
Predict: Dem Hold |||
New York-26 (Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Cheektowaga)
Brian Higgins (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
New York-27 (Canandaigua, Batavia, Lockport)
Chris Collins (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||

US House Elections 2018: North Carolina

North Carolina-01 (Durham, Roanoke Rapids, Greenville)
GK Butterfield (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
North Carolina-02 (Wake Forest, Apex [part], Nashville)
George Holding (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
North Carolina-03 (Outer Banks, New Bern, Jacksonville)
Walter Jones (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
North Carolina-04 (Raleigh, Cary, Chapel Hill)
David Price (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
North Carolina-05 (Winston-Salem, Mount Airy, Boone)
Virginia Foxx (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
North Carolina-06 (Burlington, Pittsboro, Greensboro [part])
Mark Walker (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
North Carolina-07 (Wilmington, Clinton, Goldsboro)
David Rouzer (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
North Carolina-08 (Fayetteville [part], Albemarle, Concord)
Richard Hudson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
North Carolina-09 (Charlotte [part], Lumberton, Fayetteville [part])
Robert Pittenger (R) — LOST RENOMINATION
Predict: Rep Hold |
North Carolina-10 (Asheville, Hickory, Gastonia)
Patrick McHenry (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
North Carolina-11 (Smoky Mountains, Franklin, Morganton)
Mark Meadows (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
North Carolina-12 (Charlotte [part], Huntersville, Cornelius)
Alma Adams (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
North Carolina-13 (Greensboro [part], High Point, Statesville)
Ted Budd (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||

US House Elections 2018: North Dakota

North Dakota-At Large
Kevin Cramer (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||

US House Elections 2018: Ohio

Ohio-01 (Cincinnati [part], Lebanon, Franklin)
Steve Chabot (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Ohio-02 (Cincinnati [part], Georgetown, Portsmouth)
Brad Wenstrup (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Ohio-03 (Columbus [part], Sharon, Reynoldsburg)
Joyce Beatty (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Ohio-04 (Lima, Marion, Elyria)
Jim Jordan (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Ohio-05 (Van Wert, Defiance, Bowling Green)
Bob Latta (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Ohio-06 (Jackson, Cambridge, Steubenville)
Bill Johnson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Ohio-07 (Canton, Mount Vernon, Ashland)
Bob Gibbs (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Ohio-08 (Hamilton, Greenville, Springfield)
Warren Davidson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Ohio-09 (Toledo, Sandusky, Brooklyn)
Marcy Kaptur (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Ohio-10 (Dayton, Clayton, Washington Court House)
Mike Turner (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Ohio-11 (Cleveland, Euclid, Akron [part])
Marcia Fudge (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Ohio-12 (Mansfield, Dublin, Zanesville)
Troy Balderson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Ohio-13 (Youngstown, Alliance, Akron [part])
Tim Ryan (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Ohio-14 (Ashtabula, Mentor, Macedonia)
Dave Joyce (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Ohio-15 (Columbus [part], Wilmington, Athens)
Steve Stivers (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Ohio-16 (Westlake, Medina, Wooster)
Jim Renacci (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||

US House Elections 2018: Oklahoma

Oklahoma-01 (Tulsa, Broken Arrow, Bartlesville)
Vacant – Previously Republican
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Oklahoma-02 (Durant, Muskogee, Claremore)
Markwayne Mullin (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Oklahoma-03 (Guymon, Yukon, Stillwater)
Frank Lucas (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Oklahoma-04 (Lawton, Ardmore, Norman)
Tom Cole (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Oklahoma-05 (Oklahoma City, Edmond, Shawnee)
Steve Russell (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Oregon

Oregon-01 (Beaverton, Astoria, McMinnville)
Suzanne Bonamici (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Oregon-02 (Medford, Bend, LaGrande)
Greg Walden (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Oregon-03 (Portland, Gresham, Eagle Creek)
Earl Blumenauer (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Oregon-04 (Roseburg, Eugene, Corvallis)
Peter DeFazio (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Oregon-05 (Tillamook, Salem, Oregon City)
Kurt Schrader (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||

US House Elections 2018: Pennsylvania

Please note: In February 2018, the Pennsylvania congressional district map was redrawn with a renumbering of seats. Since this was a wholesale change, rather than show rating changes for all the seats, we wiped the slate and started over.

Pennsylvania-01 (Levittown, Doylestown, Quakertown)
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Pennsylvania-02 (Philadelphia [part])
Bob Brady (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Pennsylvania-03 (Philadelphia [part])
Dwight Evans (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Pennsylvania-04 (Willow Grove, King of Prussia, Bala Cynwyd, Harleysville)
Brendan Boyle (D) — RUNNING IN PA-02
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Pennsylvania-05 (Philadelphia [part], Wayne, Upper Darby, Radnor, Media)
Pat Meehan (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |||
Pennsylvania-06 (Reading, West Chester, Exton, Oxford)
Ryan Costello (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Pennsylvania-07 (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Stroudsburg)
Vacant — Previously Republican
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Pennsylvania-08 (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton, Milford)
Matt Cartwright (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Pennsylvania-09 (Levittown, Doylestown, Quakertown)
Lou Barletta (R) – NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Pennsylvania-10 (Harrisburg, York, Carlisle, Mechanicsburg)
Scott Perry (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Pennsylvania-11 (Lancaster, Ephrata, Columbia, New Freedom)
Lloyd Smucker (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Pennsylvania-12 (State College, Williamsport, Sunbury, Towanda)
Tom Marino (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Pennsylvania-13 (Altoona, Johnstown, Gettysburg, Somerset)
Bill Shuster (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Pennsylvania-14 (Washington, Uniontown, Greensburg, New Kensington)
Conor Lamb (D) — RUNNING IN PA-17
Predict: Rep GAIN ||
Pennsylvania-15 (Warren, DuBois, Indiana, Bradford)
Glenn Thompson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Pennsylvania-16 (Erie, Sharon, New Castle, Butler)
Mike Kelly (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Pennsylvania-17 (Mt. Lebanon, Moon, Oakmont, Center)
Keith Rothfus (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Pennsylvania-18 (Pittsburgh, McKeesport, Jefferson Hills)
Mike Doyle (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Rhode Island

Rhode Island-01 (Providence [part], Woonsocket, Newport)
David Cicilline (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Rhode Island-02 (Providence [part], Warwick, Westerly)
Jim Langevin (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: South Carolina

South Carolina-01 (Charleston, Summerville, Hilton Head)
Mark Sanford (R) — LOST RENOMINATION
Predict: Rep Hold ||
South Carolina-02 (Columbia [part], Lexington, Aiken)
Joe Wilson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
South Carolina-03 (Clemson, Anderson, Edgefield)
Jeff Duncan (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
South Carolina-04 (Greenville, Spartanburg, Greer)
Trey Gowdy (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
South Carolina-05 (Rock Hill, Newberry, Camden)
Ralph Norman (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
South Carolina-06 (Columbia [part], Ridgeland, Charleston [part])
Jim Clyburn (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
South Carolina-07 (Myrtle Beach, Florence, Conway)
Tom Rice (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: South Dakota

South Dakota-At Large
Kristi Noem (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||

US House Elections 2018: Tennessee

Tennessee-01 (Bristol, Kingsport, Morristown)
Phil Roe (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Tennessee-02 (Knoxville, Maryville, Tazewell)
Jimmy Duncan (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Tennessee-03 (Chattanooga, Oak Ridge, LaFollette)
Chuck Fleischmann (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Tennessee-04 (Murfreesboro, Cleveland, McMinnville)
Scott DesJarlais (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Tennessee-05 (Nashville, Dickson)
Jim Cooper (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Tennessee-06 (Gallatin, Tullahoma, Crossville)
Diane Black (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Tennessee-07 (Clarksville, Franklin, Waynesboro)
Marsha Blackburn (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Tennessee-08 (Jackson, Dyersburg, Memphis [part])
David Kustoff (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Tennessee-09 (Memphis [part], Cordova, Millington)
Steve Cohen (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Texas

Texas-01 (Tyler, Longview, Lufkin)
Louie Gohmert (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Texas-02 (Houston [part], Atascocita, Spring)
Ted Poe (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Texas-03 (Plano, Frisco, McKinney)
Sam Johnson (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-04 (Sherman, Sulphur Springs, Texarkana)
John Ratcliffe (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Texas-05 (Mesquite, Athens, Jacksonville)
Jeb Hensarling (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-06 (Arlington [part], Ennis, Corsicana)
Joe Barton (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-07 (Houston [part], Bellaire, Jersey Village)
John Culberson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-08 (Crockett, Huntsville, The Woodlands)
Kevin Brady (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Texas-09 (Houston [part], Mission Bend)
Al Green (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Texas-10 (Austin [part], Columbus, Cypress)
Michael McCaul (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-11 (Midland, San Angelo, Mineral Wells)
Mike Conaway (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Texas-12 (Fort Worth [part], Weatherford, Decatur)
Kay Granger (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-13 (Amarillo, Wichita Falls, Gainesville)
Mac Thornberry (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Texas-14 (Beaumont, Galveston, Freeport)
Randy Weber (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-15 (McAllen, Edinburg, Seguin)
Vicente Gonzalez (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Texas-16 (El Paso, Vinton, Horizon City)
Beto O’Rourke (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Texas-17 (Waco, College Station, Austin [part])
Bill Flores (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-18 (Houston [part])
Sheila Jackson Lee (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Texas-19 (Lubbock, Big Spring, Abilene)
Jodey Arrington (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Texas-20 (San Antonio [part])
Joaquin Castro (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Texas-21 (San Antonio [part], Kerrville, Austin [part])
Lamar Smith (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-22 (Sugar Land, Pearland, Richmond)
Pete Olson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-23 (Pecos, Del Rio, San Antonio [part])
Will Hurd (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Texas-24 (Carrollton, Addison, Euless)
Kenny Marchant (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-25 (Austin [part], Gatesville, Cleburn)
Roger Williams (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-26 (Denton, Lewisville, Keller)
Michael Burgess (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-27 (Corpus Christi, Victoria, Bay City)
Michael Cloud (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-28 (Mission, Laredo, Live Oak)
Henry Cuellar (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Texas-29 (Houston [part], South Houston)
Gene Green (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Texas-30 (Dallas [part], Duncanville, Lancaster)
Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Texas-31 (Round Rock, Killeen, Temple)
John Carter (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Texas-32 (Dallas [part], Garland, Wylie)
Pete Sessions (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Texas-33 (Fort Worth [part], Irving, Dallas [part])
Marc Veasey (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Texas-34 (Brownsville, Harlingen, Beeville)
Filemon Vela (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Texas-35 (San Antonio [part], New Braunfels [part], Austin [part])
Lloyd Doggett (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Texas-36 (Baytown, Orange, Livingston)
Brian Babin (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Utah

Utah-01 (Logan, Ogen, Vernal)
Rob Bishop (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Utah-02 (Salt Lake City [part], Richfield, St. George)
Chris Stewart (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Utah-03 (Cottonwood Heights, Provo, Moab)
John Curtis (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Utah-04 (Salt Lake City [part], South Jordan, Nephi)
Mia Love (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |

US House Elections 2018: Vermont

Vermont-At Large
Peter Welch (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||

US House Elections 2018: Virginia

Virginia-01 (Bull Run, Fredericksburg, West Point)
Rob Wittman (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Virginia-02 (Virginia Beach, Williamsburg, Eastern Shore)
Scott Taylor (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Virginia-03 (Norfolk, Newport News, Smithfield)
Bobby Scott (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Virginia-04 (Chesapeake, Petersburg, Richmond)
Donald McEachin (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Virginia-05 (Charlottesville, Warrenton, Danville)
Tom Garrett (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |
Virginia-06 (Roanoke, Lynchburg, Front Royal)
Bob Goodlatte (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Virginia-07 (Midlothian, Glen Allen, Culpeper)
Dave Brat (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Virginia-08 (Arlington, Alexandria, Woodlawn)
Don Beyer (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Virginia-09 (Bristol, Blacksburg, Covington)
Morgan Griffith (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Virginia-10 (Winchester, Ashburn, Manassas)
Barbara Comstock (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Virginia-11 (Reston, Fairfax, Woodbridge)
Gerry Connolly (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Washington

Washington-01 (Blaine, Snohomish, Redmond)
Suzan DelBene (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Washington-02 (Everett, Anacortes, Bellingham)
Rick Larsen (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Washington-03 (Vancouver, Longview, Centralia)
Jaime Herrera Buetler (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Washington-04 (Yakima, Richland, Omak)
Dan Newhouse (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Washington-05 (Spokane, Walla Walla, Colville)
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Washington-06 (Aberdeen, Tacoma [part], Port Angeles)
Derek Kilmer (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Washington-07 (Seattle [part], Shoreline, Burien)
Pramila Jayapal (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Washington-08 (Issaquah, Auburn, Wenatchee)
Dave Reichert (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Washington-09 (Seattle [part], Bellevue, Federal Way)
Adam Smith (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Washington-10 (Tacoma [part], Puyallup, Olympia)
Denny Heck (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: West Virginia

West Virginia-01 (Parkersburg, Wheeling, Morgantown)
David McKinley (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
West Virginia-02 (Charleston, Elkins, Harper’s Ferry)
Alex Mooney (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
West Virginia-03 (Huntington, Beckley, Bluefield)
Vacant — Previously Republican
Predict: Rep Hold |

US House Elections 2018: Wisconsin

Wisconsin-01 (Janesville, Racine, Kenosha)
Paul Ryan (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |
Wisconsin-02 (Madison, Monroe, Reedsburg)
Mark Pocan (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Wisconsin-03 (Eau Claire, La Crosse, Wisconsin Rapids)
Ron Kind (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Wisconsin-04 (Milwaukee, Cudahy, Shorewood)
Gwen Moore (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Wisconsin-05 (Waukesha, West Bend, Watertown)
Jim Sensenbrenner (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Wisconsin-06 (Oshkosh, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan)
Glenn Grothman (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Wisconsin-07 (Wausau, Rhinelander, Superior)
Sean Duffy (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Wisconsin-08 (Green Bay, Appleton, Marinette)
Mike Gallagher (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||

US House Elections 2018: Wyoming

Wyoming-At Large
Liz Cheney (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||

US House Elections 2018: Rating Changes

Most recent US House rating changes at top.

October 7, 2018
CA-22 (R3 to R2), CA-45 (R1 to D1), CT-02 (D3 to D4), IL-14 (R2 to R1), KS-03 (R1 to D1), NC-09 (D1 to R1)
September 15, 2018
CA-08 (R3 to R4), CA-50 (R3 to R1), CO-06 (R1 to D1), FL-10 (D3 to D4), FL-21 (D3 to D4), FL-22 (D3 to D4), FL-23 (D3 to D4), FL-27 (D2 to D1), GA-02 (D2 to D3), GA-08 (R3 to R4), HI-02 (D3 to D4), IL-03 (D3 to D4), IL-06 (R2 to D1), IA-03 (R2 to R1), KS-02 (R2 to D1), KS-03 (R2 to R1), MI-01 (R3 to R2), MI-06 (R3 to R2), MI-08 (R2 to R1), MI-11 (R1 to D1), MN-03 (R1 to D1), MN-08 (R1 to D1), MO-02 (R3 to R1), MO-05 (D3 to D4), NH-02 (D2 to D3), NJ-03 (R2 to R1), NJ-07 (R1 to D1), NM-02 (R3 to R1), NY-06 (D3 to D4), NY-22 (R2 to D1), NY-27 (R3 to R2), NC-02 (R3 to R1), NC-03 (R3 to R4), NC-09 (R1 to D1), OH-12 (R3 to R1), PA-14 (R1 to R2), PA-17 (R2 to D1), SC-01 (R3 to R2), TX-20 (D3 to D4), VA-02 (R2 to R1), WA-02 (D3 to D4), WA-05 (R3 to R1), WA-09 (D3 to D4), WV-03 (R2 to R1), WI-01 (R2 to R1), WI-03 (D2 to D3)
July 22, 2018
CA-48 (R1 to D1), MT-AL (R2 to R1), NC-09 (R2 to R1), UT-04 (R2 to R1), WV-03 (R3 to R2)
June 16, 2018
IA-01 (R1 to D1), KY-06 (R2 to D1), MI-11 (R2 to R1), NE-02 (D1 to R1), NV-03 (R1 to D1), NC-09 (R3 to R2), VA-05 (R2 to R1), VA-07 (R2 to R1), WI-01 (R3 to R2)
February 21, 2018
Various Pennsylvania Changes — Redistricting
January 29, 2018
NJ-11 (R1 to D1)
January 8, 2018
CA-39 (R1 to D1)

US House Elections 2018: October 7, 2018 Analysis

Only a few races updated in our latest changes, which still forecasts a narrow Democratic majority.

We must confront the very real possibility that the Democrats make strong gains in the House and either stall out or lose seats in the Senate. In spite of that, there are pundits out there suggesting more than a gain of 25 or so. There are Democratic leads that we just don’t see materializing. For example, we’re not giving away anything in North Carolina, there’s only so much more they can lose in California, and they have held their own in some close races like FL-26 and VA-02.

Could the Democratic majority come down to picking up a few seats in red states like Kansas, Arizona, and Kentucky? At this point, we think yes.

Consider also that there are dozens of Republicans seats we have just barely in their column. A little boost in turnout could still save the House GOP, just like a very energized Democratic turnout could flip two dozen more seats. Rule number one is getting your people out to vote. We know the Democrats are going to vote and they have been waiting for this since Trump’s election. Will the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court drama motivate Republican voters to support the party? It’s a little too soon to tell but we are NOT as bullish on Democratic chances as some of the talking heads.

The best-case scenario for the GOP is losing about a dozen seats, and the worst is closer to 50.

US House Elections 2018: September 15, 2018 Analysis

Democrats are moving squarely into majority territory on our long-overdue updated predictions for the US House election. With a number of races moving in their direction, it’s becoming more possible that they will retake the House for the first time since 2010.

National generic ballot polls are one thing, but you could find two-dozen districts that could flip from Republican to Democratic if examining local trends. We did. While the GOP might hold the Senate, it’s becoming less likely they keep both chambers. Also consider just how many Republican seats now we have as “Weak Leans.” Things could really get away from them if Democrats turn out and independents break away from Republicans. Poll numbers for the GOP have been bad, and while they might not lose every seat in play, they’re going to lose enough of them to, at best, eliminate most of their majority.

The best-case scenario for Republicans at this stage is losing a dozen seats and narrowly retaining House control. Counting the changes in Pennsylvania and a handful of others across the country that are just gone, that’s the starting point. Remember, the Democrats can pick up 20 seats — a good night by most election standards — and still not win back the House.

Worst-case is something like what the GOP did to Democrats in 2010. There are only a few legitimate opportunities for the Republicans to gain seats and shear a potential Democratic wave. Given that there are maybe three such seats in the United States right now, it would be the proverbial flatuence in a tornado.

We are still being somewhat conservative with Democratic gain totals. Sure, it COULD be 50 but if we’re going that far out on a limb, it won’t be until right before the election when we have a much better idea of how this thing’s going to go. Just keep in mind we will never rate a race as a toss-up.

US House Elections 2018: June 16, 2018 Analysis

The number of Democratic gains is increasing as we map the course to the November 2018 elections. In June, we’re not going out on a big limb with +14 for the Democrats. It could end up being 20 or 30 if things break their way, but primaries are still ongoing in some states and once the Fall hits, we will know much more.

US House Elections 2018: January 1, 2018 Analysis

Our initial round of predictions for the US House Elections 2018 gives a Democratic net gain of eight. That would leave the Republicans with a majority of 233 to 202.

Take your pick of political commentators out there in the ether. Many suspect the Democrats will do well in 2018, and the US House is not impervious to the building blue wave. Yet, 10 months before the election, the hard part is figuring out where those gains will be. Most House races have not taken shape, so that Dem +8 could get much bigger or smaller. In 2010, when the Republicans gained 64 seats, and it wasn’t until the very end that the pundits sniffed out a Republican gain even in the 40 to 50 range. There is a long, long way to go.

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