US House Elections 2018 Predictions and Results

Will the Democrats retake the House, or does the Blue Wave fizzle?

US House Elections 2018 Predictions

This is the home for the US House elections 2018, featuring our seat-by-seat predictions and results. Who will control the House from 2018 and beyond?

In the 2016 election, the Republicans won 241 seats while the Democrats claimed 194. Democrats must have a net gain of two dozen, or 24 seats, to retake the majority. The GOP has been the majority party since January 2011, and has been in charge for all but four years since January 1995.

Those who survive this comprehensive listing of state-by-state predictions will get to read a spot of current analysis on the election.

Updates to the individual listings below to be listed at the top of the page by date.

Other 2018 US Election Pages: US Senate Election 2018 | US Governor Elections 2018

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US House Elections 2018 Seat Safety Key
| Weak Lean (1)
|| Strong Lean (2)
||| Safe (3)
|||| Very Safe (4)

US House Elections 2018: Overall Results

2018 US House Election Results

US House Elections 2018: Alabama

Alabama-01 (Mobile, Brewton, Bay Minette)
Bradley Byrne (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Bradley Byrne re-elected, 63.3%)
Alabama-02 (Montgomery [part], Dothan, Troy)
Martha Roby (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Martha Roby re-elected, 61.5%)
Alabama-03 (Auburn, Oxford, Tuskegee)
Mike Rogers (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mike Rogers re-elected, 63.8%)
Alabama-04 (Gadsden, Cullman, Haleyville)
Robert Aderholt (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Bob Aderholt re-elected, 79.9%)
Alabama-05 (Huntsvile, Florence, Stevenson)
Mo Brooks (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mo Brooks re-elected, 61.1%)
Alabama-06 (Hoover, Gardendale, Alabaster)
Gary Palmer (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Gary Palmer re-elected, 69.3%)
Alabama-07 (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Montgomery [part])
Terri Sewell (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Terri Sewell re-elected unopposed)

US House Elections 2018: Alaska

Alaska-At Large
Don Young (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Don Young re-elected, 54.0%)

US House Elections 2018: Arizona

Arizona-01 (Flagstaff, Safford, Casa Grande)
Tom O’Halleran (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |
Actual: Dem Hold (Tom O’Halleran re-elected, 53.8%)
Arizona-02 (Tucson [part], Sierra Vista, Willcox)
Martha McSally (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Ann Kirkpatrick elected, 54.4%)
Arizona-03 (Yuma [part], Tucson [part], Buckeye)
Raúl Grijalva (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Raúl Grijalva re-elected, 63.4%)
Arizona-04 (Apache Junction, Yuma [part], Kingman)
Paul Gosar (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Paul Gosar re-elected, 68.2%)
Arizona-05 (Gilbert, Queen Creek, Mesa [part])
Andy Biggs (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Andy Biggs re-elected, 59.4%)
Arizona-06 (Scottsdale [part], Fountain Hills, Phoenix [part])
David Schweikert (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (David Schweikert re-elected, 55.3%)
Arizona-07 (Phoenix [part], Glendale)
Ruben Gallego (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Ruben Gallego re-elected, 85.7%)
Arizona-08 (Surprise, Peoria, El Mirage)
Debbie Lesko (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Debbie Lesko re-elected, 55.6%)
Arizona-09 (Phoenix [part], Mesa [part], Tempe)
Kyrsten Sinema (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Greg Stanton elected, 60.9%)

US House Elections 2018: Arkansas

Arkansas-01 (Jonesboro, West Memphis, Mountain Home)
Rick Crawford (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Rick Crawford re-elected, 69.0%)
Arkansas-02 (Little Rock, Searcy, Benton)
French Hill (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (French Hill re-elected, 52.1%)
Arkansas-03 (Fayetteville, Fort Smith, Russellville)
Steve Womack (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Steve Womack re-elected, 64.9%)
Arkansas-04 (Texarkana, Pine Bluff, Hot Springs)
Bruce Westerman (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Bruce Westerman re-elected, 66.8%)

US House Elections 2018: California

California-01 (Redding, Chico, Yreka)
Doug LaMalfa (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Doug LaMalfa re-elected, 55.0%)
California-02 (Eureka, Ukiah, Petaluma)
Jared Huffman (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jared Huffman re-elected, 76.8%)
California-03 (Fairfield, Davis, Yuba City)
John Garamendi (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (John Garamendi re-elected, 56.9%)
California-04 (Tahoe, Roseville, Yosemite)
Tom McClintock (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Tom McClintock re-elected, 54.3%)
California-05 (Santa Rosa, Napa, Vallejo)
Mike Thompson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Mike Thompson re-elected, 78.4%)
California-06 (Sacramento [part])
Doris Matsui (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Doris Matsui re-elected, 80.9%)
California-07 (Sacramento [part], Folsom, Elk Grove)
Ami Bera (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Ami Bera re-elected, 54.8%)
California-08 (Death Valley, Victorville, San Bernardino [part])
Paul Cook (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Paul Cook re-elected, 60.1%)
California-09 (Stockton, Lodi)
Jerry McNerney (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jerry McNerney re-elected, 55.9%)
California-10 (Modesto, Tracy, Turlock)
Jeff Denham (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Josh Harder elected, 51.7%)
California-11 (Richmond, Concord, Pittsburg)
Mark DeSaulnier (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Mark DeSaulnier re-elected, 74.0%)
California-12 (San Francisco [part])
Nancy Pelosi (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Nancy Pelosi re-elected, 86.8%)
California-13 (Oakland, Berkeley, San Leandro)
Barbara Lee (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Barbara Lee re-elected, 88.4%)
California-14 (San Mateo, Pacifica, San Francisco [part])
Jackie Speier (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jackie Speier re-elected, 79.2%)
California-15 (Hayward, Livermore, Union City)
Eric Swalwell (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Eric Swalwell re-elected, 73.0%)
California-16 (Fresno [part], Merced, Los Banos)
Jim Costa (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jim Costa re-elected, 56.8%)
California-17 (San Jose [part], Sunnyvale, Fremont)
Ro Khanna (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Ro Khanna re-elected, 75.3%)
California-18 (Palo Alto, Saratoga, Boulder Creek)
Anna Eshoo (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Anna Eshoo re-elected, 74.5%)
California-19 (San Jose [part], Morgan Hill)
Zoe Lofgren (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Zoe Lofgren re-elected, 73.7%)
California-20 (Monterey, Santa Cruz, Soledad)
Jimmy Panetta (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jimmy Panetta re-elected, 81.2%)
California-21 (Bakersfield [part], Hanford, Mendota)
David Valadao (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Dem GAIN (TJ Cox elected, 50.2%)
California-22 (Fresno [part], Clovis, Visalia)
Devin Nunes (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Devin Nunes re-elected, 53.4%)
California-23 (Bakersfield [part], Porterville, California City)
Kevin McCarthy (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Kevin McCarthy re-elected, 63.9%)
California-24 (San Luis Obispo, Santa Maria, Santa Barbara)
Salud Carbajal (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Salud Carbajal re-elected, 58.0%)
California-25 (Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley [part])
Steve Knight (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Katie Hill elected, 54.2%)
California-26 (Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, Point Mugu)
Julia Brownley (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Julia Brownley re-elected, 61.8%)
California-27 (Alhambra, Monterey Park, Pasadena)
Judy Chu (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Judy Chu re-elected, 79.3%)
California-28 (Hollywood, Glendale, Burbank)
Adam Schiff (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Adam Schiff re-elected, 78.3%)
California-29 (Van Nuys, North Hollywood, San Fernando)
Tony Cardenas (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Tony Cardenas re-elected, 80.6%)
California-30 (Studio City, Sherman Oaks, Northridge)
Brad Sherman (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Brad Sherman re-elected, 73.4%)
California-31 (Rancho Cucamonga, San Bernardino [part], Redlands)
Pete Aguilar (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Pete Aguilar re-elected, 58.2%)
California-32 (West Covina, Azusa, San Dimas)
Grace Napolitano (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Grace Napolitano re-elected, 68.7%)
California-33 (Malibu, Santa Monica, Rancho Palos Verdes)
Ted Lieu (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Ted Lieu re-elected, 70.0%)
California-34 (Downtown Los Angeles, Highland Park)
Jimmy Gomez (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jimmy Gomez re-elected, 72.6%)
California-35 (Pomona, Ontario, Fontana)
Norma Torres (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Norma Torres re-elected, 69.1%)
California-36 (Palm Springs, Hemet, La Quinta)
Raul Ruiz (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Raul Ruiz re-elected, 58.0%)
California-37 (Park Mesa Heights, Mar Vista, Westwood)
Karen Bass (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Karen Bass re-elected, 89.1%)
California-38 (Whittier, Norwalk, Cerritos)
Linda Sanchez (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Linda Sanchez re-elected, 68.7%)
California-39 (Brea, Yorba Linda, Chino Hills)
Ed Royce (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Gil Cisneros elected, 51.5%)
California-40 (Downey, Paramount, Commerce)
Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Lucille Roybal-Allard re-elected, 77.4%)
California-41 (Riverside, Moreno Valley, Perris)
Mark Takano (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Mark Takano re-elected, 63.6%)
California-42 (Corona, Murrieta, Menifee)
Ken Calvert (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Ken Calvert re-elected, 57.3%)
California-43 (Inglewood, Gardena, Torrance)
Maxine Waters (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Maxine Waters re-elected, 77.5%)
California-44 (Lynwood, Compton, Carson)
Nanette Barragan (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Nanette Barragan re-elected, 68.5%)
California-45 (Irvine, Mission Viejo, Tustin)
Mimi Walters (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Katie Porter elected, 51.9%)
California-46 (Anaheim, Orange, Santa Ana)
Lou Correa (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Lou Correa re-elected, 69.0%)
California-47 (Long Beach, Cypress, Garden Grove)
Alan Lowenthal (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Alan Lowenthal re-elected, 64.8%)
California-48 (Huntington Beach, Newport Beach, Laguna Niguel)
Dana Rohrabacher (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Harley Rouda elected, 53.5%)
California-49 (San Clemente, Oceanside, Encinitas)
Darrell Issa (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Mike Levin elected, 56.1%)
California-50 (Temecula, Escondido, Lakeside)
Duncan Hunter (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Duncan Hunter re-elected, 51.8%)
California-51 (San Diego [part], Chula Vista, El Centro)
Juan Vargas (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Juan Vargas re-elected, 70.8%)
California-52 (San Diego [part], La Jolla, Poway)
Scott Peters (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Scott Peters re-elected, 63.8%)
California-53 (San Diego [part], El Cajon, Bonita)
Susan Davis (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Susan Davis re-elected, 68.9%)

US House Elections 2018: Colorado

Colorado-01 (Denver, Sheridan)
Diana DeGette (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Diana DeGette re-elected, 71.7%)
Colorado-02 (Boulder, Vail, Fort Collins)
Jared Polis (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Joe Neguse elected, 60.0%)
Colorado-03 (Grand Junction, Pueblo, Aspen)
Scott Tipton (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Scott Tipton re-elected, 51.7%)
Colorado-04 (Greeley, Castle Rock, Trinidad)
Ken Buck (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Ken Buck re-elected, 60.9%)
Colorado-05 (Colorado Springs, Buena Vista)
Doug Lamborn (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Doug Lamborn re-elected, 58.3%)
Colorado-06 (Littleton, Centennial, Aurora)
Mike Coffman (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Jason Crow elected, 54.1%)
Colorado-07 (Thornton, Arvada, Golden)
Ed Perlmutter (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Ed Perlmutter re-elected, 60.3%)

US House Elections 2018: Connecticut

Connecticut-01 (Hartford, Bristol, Windsor Locks)
John Larson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (John Larson re-elected, 63.7%)
Connecticut-02 (New London, Norwich, Vernon)
Joe Courtney (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Joe Courtney re-elected, 62.1%)
Connecticut-03 (New Haven, Milford, Waterbury [part])
Rosa DeLauro (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Rosa DeLauro re-elected, 64.4%)
Connecticut-04 (Bridgeport, Stamford, Ridgefield)
Jim Himes (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jim Himes re-elected, 60.9%)
Connecticut-05 (Waterbury [part], New Britain, Danbury)
Elizabeth Esty (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jahana Hayes elected, 55.8%)

US House Elections 2018: Delaware

Delaware-At Large
Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Lisa Blunt Rochester re-elected, 64.5%)

US House Elections 2018: Florida

Florida-01 (Pensacola, Fort Walton Beach, DeFuniak Springs)
Matt Gaetz (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Matt Gaetz re-elected, 67.1%)
Florida-02 (Tallahassee [part], Panama City, Cedar Key)
Neal Dunn (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Neal Dunn re-elected, 67.4%)
Florida-03 (Ocala, Gainesville, Palatka)
Ted Yoho (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Ted Yoho re-elected, 57.6%)
Florida-04 (St. Augustine, Fernandina Beach, Jacksonville [part])
John Rutherford (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (John Rutherford re-elected, 65.2%)
Florida-05 (Tallahassee [part], Madison, Jacksonville [part])
Al Lawson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Al Lawson re-elected, 66.8%)
Florida-06 (Daytona Beach, Deltona, Palm Coast)
Ron DeSantis (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mike Waltz elected, 56.3%)
Florida-07 (Orlando [part], Sanford)
Stephanie Murphy (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Stephanie Murphy re-elected, 57.7%)
Florida-08 (Cocoa, Melbourne, Vero Beach)
Bill Posey (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Bill Posey re-elected, 60.5%)
Florida-09 (Kissimmee, Winter Haven, Orlando [part])
Darren Soto (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Darren Soto re-elected, 58.0%)
Florida-10 (Orlando [part], Apopka)
Val Demings (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Val Demings re-elected unopposed)
Florida-11 (Spring Hill, Bushnell, The Villages)
Dan Webster (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Dan Webster re-elected, 65.2%)
Florida-12 (Dade City, Tarpon Springs, Dunedin)
Gus Bilirakis (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Gus Bilirakis re-elected, 58.1%)
Florida-13 (Saint Petersburg, Largo, Clearwater)
Charlie Crist (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Charlie Crist re-elected, 57.6%)
Florida-14 (Tampa, Lutz)
Kathy Castor (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Kathy Castor re-elected unopposed)
Florida-15 (Brandon, Lakeland, Lake Louisa)
Dennis Ross (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Ross Spano elected, 53.0%)
Florida-16 (Sarasota, Bradenton)
Vern Buchanan (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Vern Buchanan re-elected, 54.6%)
Florida-17 (Punta Gorda, Venice, Okeechobee)
Tom Rooney (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Greg Steube elected, 62.3%)
Florida-18 (Port St. Lucie, Indiantown, Juno Beach)
Brian Mast (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Brian Mast re-elected, 54.3%)
Florida-19 (Fort Myers, Bonita Springs, Naples)
Francis Rooney (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Francis Rooney re-elected, 62.3%)
Florida-20 (Palm Beach [part], Fort Lauderdale [part], Miramar [part])
Alcee Hastings (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Alcee Hastings re-elected unopposed)
Florida-21 (Palm Beach [part], Boynton Beach, Delray Beach)
Lois Frankel (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Lois Frankel re-elected unopposed)
Florida-22 (Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale [part], Deerfield Beach)
Ted Deutch (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Ted Deutch re-elected, 62.0%)
Florida-23 (Hollywood Beach, Davie, Weston)
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Debbie Wasserman Schultz re-elected, 58.5%)
Florida-24 (Miami [part], Opa Locka, Miami Gardens)
Frederica Wilson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Frederica Wilson re-elected unopposed)
Florida-25 (Hialeah, Big Cypress, LaBelle)
Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mario Diaz-Balart re-elected, 60.5%)
Florida-26 (Florida Keys, Homestead, Kendall Lakes)
Carlos Curbelo (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Debbie Mucarsel-Powell elected, 50.9%)
Florida-27 (Miami [part], Kendall, Palmetto Bay)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Donna Shalala elected, 51.8%)

US House Elections 2018: Georgia

Georgia-01 (Savannah, Brunswick, Waycross)
Buddy Carter (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Buddy Carter re-elected, 57.7%)
Georgia-02 (Albany, Columbus, Macon [part])
Sanford Bishop (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Sanford Bishop re-elected, 59.6%)
Georgia-03 (LaGrange, Carrollton, Peachtree City)
Drew Ferguson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Drew Ferguson re-elected, 65.5%)
Georgia-04 (Covington, Conyers, Stone Mountain)
Hank Johnson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Hank Johnson re-elected, 78.8%)
Georgia-05 (Atlanta, College Park)
John Lewis (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (John Lewis re-elected unopposed)
Georgia-06 (LaGrange, Carrollton, Peachtree City)
Karen Handel (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Dem GAIN (Lucy McBath elected, 50.5%)
Georgia-07 (Lawrenceville, Norcross, Sugar Hill)
Rob Woodall (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Rob Woodall re-elected, 50.1%)
Georgia-08 (Macon [part], Tifton, Valdosta)
Austin Scott (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Austin Scott re-elected unopposed)
Georgia-09 (Toccoa, Gainesville, Commerce)
Doug Collins (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Doug Collins re-elected, 79.5%)
Georgia-10 (Athens, Monticello, Milledgeville)
Jody Hice (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jody Hice re-elected, 62.9%)
Georgia-11 (Canton, Kennesaw, Marietta)
Barry Loudermilk (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Barry Loudermilk re-elected, 61.8%)
Georgia-12 (Augusta, Statesboro, Douglas)
Rick Allen (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Rick Allen re-elected, 59.5%)
Georgia-13 (Powder Springs, Douglasville, Stockbridge)
David Scott (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (David Scott re-elected, 76.2%)
Georgia-14 (Dalton, Rome, Bremen)
Tom Graves (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Tom Graves re-elected, 76.5%)

US House Elections 2018: Hawaii

Hawaii-01 (Honolulu, Waipahu, Mililani)
Colleen Hanabusa (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Ed Case elected, 73.1%)
Hawaii-02 (Hilo, Maui, Kauai)
Tulsi Gabbard (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Tulsi Gabbard re-elected, 77.4%)

US House Elections 2018: Idaho

Idaho-01 (Coeur d’Alene, Nampa, Boise [part])
Raul Labrador (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Russ Fulcher elected, 62.7%)
Idaho-02 (Boise [part], Pocatello, Idaho Falls)
Mike Simpson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mike Simpson re-elected, 60.7%)

US House Elections 2018: Illinois

Illinois-01 (Chicago [part], Evergreen Park, Mokena)
Bobby Rush (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Bobby Rush re-elected, 73.0%)
Illinois-02 (Chicago [part], South Holland, Kankakee)
Robin Kelly (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Robin Kelly re-elected, 80.8%)
Illinois-03 (Chicago [part], Bridgeview, Lockport)
Dan Lipinski (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Dan Lipinski re-elected, 73.5%)
Illinois-04 (Chicago [part], Cicero)
Luis Gutierrez (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Chuy Garcia elected, 90.3%)
Illinois-05 (Chicago [part], Norridge, Elmhurst)
Mike Quigley (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Mike Quigley re-elected, 77.9%)
Illinois-06 (Lake Zurich, Wheaton, Westmont)
Peter Roskam (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Sean Casten elected, 52.8%)
Illinois-07 (Chicago [part], Forest Park, Bellwood)
Danny Davis (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Danny Davis re-elected, 88.1%)
Illinois-08 (Elgin, Schaumburg, Addison)
Raja Krishnamoorthi (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Raja Krishnamoorthi re-elected, 65.7%)
Illinois-09 (Chicago [part], Evanston, Mount Prospect)
Jan Schakowsky (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jan Schakowsky re-elected, 84.5%)
Illinois-10 (Waukegan, Round Lake, Highland Park)
Brad Schneider (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Brad Schneider re-elected, 65.4%)
Illinois-11 (Aurora, Bolingbrook, Joliet)
Bill Foster (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Bill Foster re-elected, 63.6%)
Illinois-12 (East St. Louis, Mount Vernon, Cairo)
Mike Bost (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Mike Bost re-elected, 51.8%)
Illinois-13 (Springfield, Champaign, Decatur)
Rodney Davis (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Rodney Davis re-elected, 50.5%)
Illinois-14 (Antioch, Sycamore, Oswego)
Randy Hultgren (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Lauren Underwood elected, 51.9%)
Illinois-15 (Danville, Centralia, Harrisburg)
John Shimkus (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (John Shimkus re-elected, 71.1%)
Illinois-16 (Rockford [part], DeKalb, Watseka)
Adam Kinzinger (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Adam Kinzinger re-elected, 59.7%)
Illinois-17 (Rockford [part], Peoria [part], Moline)
Cheri Bustos (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Cheri Bustos re-elected, 61.8%)
Illinois-18 (Peoria [part], Quincy, Chatham)
Darin LaHood (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Darin LaHood re-elected, 67.4%)

US House Elections 2018: Indiana

Indiana-01 (Gary, Michigan City, Valparaiso)
Peter Visclosky (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Peter Visclosky re-elected, 65.1%)
Indiana-02 (South Bend, Plymouth, Peru)
Jackie Walorski (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jackie Walorski re-elected, 54.8%)
Indiana-03 (Fort Wayne, Angola, Portland)
Jim Banks (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jim Banks re-elected, 64.7%)
Indiana-04 (Kokomo, Lafayette, Crawfordsville)
Todd Rokita (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jim Baird elected, 64.3%)
Indiana-05 (Marion, Carmel, Indianapolis [part])
Susan Brooks (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Susan Brooks re-elected, 56.8%)
Indiana-06 (Muncie, Columbus, Versailles)
Luke Messer (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Greg Pence elected, 63.8%)
Indiana-07 (Indianapolis [part], Beech Grove)
André Carson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (André Carson re-elected, 64.9%)
Indiana-08 (Evansville, Washington, Terre Haute)
Larry Bucshon (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Larry Bucshon re-elected, 64.4%)
Indiana-09 (Jeffersonville, Bloomington, Greenwood)
Trey Hollingsworth (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Trey Hollingsworth re-elected, 59.4%)

US House Elections 2018: Iowa

Iowa-01 (Dubuque, Waterloo, Cedar Rapids)
Rod Blum (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Abby Finkenauer elected, 50.9%)
Iowa-02 (Davenport, Iowa City, Ottumwa)
Dave Loebsack (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Dave Loebsack re-elected, 54.8%)
Iowa-03 (Des Moines, Council Bluffs)
David Young (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Cindy Axne elected, 49.0%)
Iowa-04 (Sioux City, Ames, Mason City)
Steve King (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Steve King re-elected, 50.4%)

US House Elections 2018: Kansas

Kansas-01 (Goodland, Dodge City, Salina)
Roger Marshall (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Roger Marshall re-elected, 68.4%)
Kansas-02 (Topeka, Lawrence, Pittsburg)
Lynn Jenkins (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Rep Hold (Steve Watkins elected, 48.1%)
Kansas-03 (Kansas City, Overland Park, Olathe)
Kevin Yoder (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Sharice Davids elected, 53.3%)
Kansas-04 (Wichita, El Dorado, Pratt)
Ron Estes (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Ron Estes re-elected, 59.8%)

US House Elections 2018: Kentucky

Kentucky-01 (Paducah, Henderson, Campbellsville)
James Comer (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (James Comer re-elected, 68.6%)
Kentucky-02 (Bowling Green, Owensboro, Elizabethtown)
Brett Guthrie (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Brett Guthrie re-elected, 66.7%)
Kentucky-03 (Louisville, Jeffersontown)
John Yarmuth (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (John Yarmuth re-elected, 62.1%)
Kentucky-04 (Ashland, Covington, Shelbyville)
Thomas Massie (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Thomas Massie re-elected, 62.2%)
Kentucky-05 (Somerset, Hazard, Grayson)
Hal Rogers (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Hal Rogers re-elected, 78.9%)
Kentucky-06 (Lexington, Frankfort, Richmond)
Andy Barr (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Andy Barr re-elected, 51.0%)

US House Elections 2018: Louisiana

Louisiana-01 (Metairie, Covington, Houma)
Steve Scalise (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Steve Scalise re-elected, 71.5%)
Louisiana-02 (New Orleans, Donaldsonville, Baton Rouge [part])
Cedric Richmond (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Cedric Richmond re-elected, 80.6%)
Louisiana-03 (Lafayette, Lake Charles, Morgan City)
Clay Higgins (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Clay Higgins re-elected, 55.7%)
Louisiana-04 (Shreveport, Natchitoches, Ville Platte)
Mike Johnson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mike Johnson re-elected, 64.2%)
Louisiana-05 (Monroe, Alexandria, Bogalusa)
Ralph Abraham (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Ralph Abraham re-elected, 66.5%)
Louisiana-06 (Baton Rouge [part], Thibodaux, Destrehan)
Garret Graves (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Garret Graves re-elected, 69.5%)

US House Elections 2018: Maine

Maine-01 (Portland, Augusta, Kittery)
Chellie Pingree (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Chellie Pingree re-elected, 59.7%)
Maine-02 (Bangor, Lewiston, Caribou)
Bruce Poliquin (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Jared Golden elected)

US House Elections 2018: Maryland

Maryland-01 (Salisbury, Elkton, Bel Air)
Andy Harris (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Andy Harris re-elected, 60.6%)
Maryland-02 (Aberdeen, Dundalk, Towson [part])
Dutch Ruppersberger (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Dutch Ruppersberger re-elected, 65.8%)
Maryland-03 (Annapolis, Baltimore [part], Olney)
John Sarbanes (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (John Sarbanes re-elected, 68.6%)
Maryland-04 (Severna Park, Landover, Oxon Hill)
Anthony Brown (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Anthony Brown re-elected, 77.9%)
Maryland-05 (College Park [part], Bowie, La Plata)
Steny Hoyer (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Steny Hoyer re-elected, 70.2%)
Maryland-06 (Cumberland, Hagerstown, Gaithersburg)
John Delaney (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (David Trone elected, 57.7%)
Maryland-07 (Baltimore [part], Columbia [part], Cockeysville [part])
Elijah Cummings (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Elijah Cummings re-elected, 76.1%)
Maryland-08 (Bethesda, Rockville, Westminster)
Jamie Raskin (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jamie Raskin re-elected, 66.9%)

US House Elections 2018: Massachusetts

Massachusetts-01 (Springfield, Pittsfield, Sturbridge)
Richard Neal (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Richard Neal re-elected unopposed)
Massachusetts-02 (Worcester, Amherst, Leominster)
Jim McGovern (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jim McGovern re-elected, 67.2%)
Massachusetts-03 (Haverhill, Lowell, Hudson)
Niki Tsongas (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Lori Trahan elected, 62.0%)
Massachusetts-04 (Newton, Taunton, Fall River [part])
Joe Kennedy III (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Joe Kennedy re-elected unopposed)
Massachusetts-05 (Revere, Waltham, Framingham)
Katherine Clark (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Katherine Clark re-elected, 75.8%)
Massachusetts-06 (Newburyport, Salem, Wilmington)
Seth Moulton (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Seth Moulton re-elected, 65.2%)
Massachusetts-07 (Boston [part], Cambridge [part], Randolph)
Mike Capuano (D) — LOST RENOMINATION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Ayanna Pressley elected unopposed)
Massachusetts-08 (Boston [part], Brockton, Hingham)
Stephen Lynch (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Stephen Lynch re-elected unopposed)
Massachusetts-09 (Cape Cod, Plymouth, New Bedford)
Bill Keating (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Bill Keating re-elected, 59.3%)

US House Elections 2018: Michigan

Michigan-01 (Upper Peninsula, Traverse City, Alpena)
Jack Bergman (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jack Bergman re-elected, 56.3%)
Michigan-02 (Holland, Muskegon, Ludington)
Bill Huizenga (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Bill Huizenga re-elected, 55.3%)
Michigan-03 (Grand Rapids, Ionia, Battle Creek)
Justin Amash (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Justin Amash re-elected, 54.4%)
Michigan-04 (Cadillac, Mount Pleasant, Midland)
John Moolenaar (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (John Moolenaar re-elected, 62.6%)
Michigan-05 (Flint, Saginaw, Bay City)
Dan Kildee (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Dan Kildee re-elected, 59.5%)
Michigan-06 (Kalamazoo, Benton Harbor, Douglas)
Fred Upton (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Fred Upton re-elected, 50.2%)
Michigan-07 (Monroe, Jackson, Waverly)
Tim Walberg (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Tim Walberg re-elected, 53.8%)
Michigan-08 (Lansing, Howell, Rochester)
Mike Bishop (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Elissa Slotkin elected, 50.6%)
Michigan-09 (Warren, Mount Clemens, Royal Oak)
Sander Levin (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Andy Levin elected, 59.7%)
Michigan-10 (Port Huron, Washington, Bad Axe)
Paul Mitchell (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Paul Mitchell re-elected, 60.3%)
Michigan-11 (Plymouth, Novi, Troy)
Dave Trott (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Haley Stevens elected, 51.8%)
Michigan-12 (Ann Arbor, Dearborn, Trenton)
Debbie Dingell (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Debbie Dingell re-elected, 68.1%)
Michigan-13 (Detroit [part], Wayne, Romulus)
Vacant – Previously Democratic
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Rashida Tlaib elected, 84.6%)
Michigan-14 (Detroit [part], Southfield, Farmington Hills)
Brenda Lawrence (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Brenda Lawrence re-elected, 80.9%)

US House Elections 2018: Minnesota

Minnesota-01 (Rochester, Mankato, Worthington)
Tim Walz (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |
Actual: Rep GAIN (Jim Hagedorn elected, 50.2%)
Minnesota-02 (Eagan, Northfield, Wabasha)
Jason Lewis (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Angie Craig elected, 52.8%)
Minnesota-03 (Maple Grove, Minnetonka, Bloomington)
Erik Paulsen (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Dean Phillips elected, 55.7%)
Minnesota-04 (Saint Paul, Stillwater, White Bear Lake)
Betty McCollum (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Betty McCollum re-elected, 66.0%)
Minnesota-05 (Minneapolis, Richfield, Fridley)
Keith Ellison (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Ilhan Omar elected, 78.2%)
Minnesota-06 (St. Cloud, Andover, Buffalo)
Tom Emmer (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Tom Emmer re-elected, 61.2%)
Minnesota-07 (Marshall, Alexandria, Bemidji)
Collin Peterson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Collin Peterson re-elected, 52.1%)
Minnesota-08 (Brainerd, Duluth, International Falls)
Rick Nolan (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep GAIN |
Actual: Rep GAIN (Pete Stauber elected, 50.7%)

US House Elections 2018: Mississippi

Mississippi-01 (Tupelo, Corinth, Columbus)
Trent Kelly (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Trent Kelly re-elected, 67.0%)
Mississippi-02 (Clarksdale, Vicksburg, Jackson [part])
Bennie Thompson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Bennie Thompson re-elected, 71.8%)
Mississippi-03 (McComb, Starkville, Jackson [part])
Gregg Harper (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Michael Guest elected, 62.7%)
Mississippi-04 (Hattiesburg, Gulfport, Biloxi)
Steven Palazzo (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Steven Palazzo re-elected, 69.6%)

US House Elections 2018: Missouri

Missouri-01 (St. Louis, Overland, Florissant)
Lacy Clay (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Lacy Clay re-elected, 80.1%)
Missouri-02 (Chesterfield, Creve Coeur, Fenton)
Ann Wagner (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Ann Wagner re-elected, 51.3%)
Missouri-03 (O’Fallon, Jefferson City, Union)
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Blaine Luetkemeyer re-elected, 65.1%)
Missouri-04 (Columbia, Lebanon, Warrensburg)
Vicky Hartzler (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Vicky Hartzler re-elected, 64.7%)
Missouri-05 (Kansas City, Independence, Marshall)
Emanuel Cleaver (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Emanuel Cleaver re-elected, 61.6%)
Missouri-06 (Saint Joseph, Kirksville, Hannibal)
Sam Graves (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Sam Graves re-elected, 65.4%)
Missouri-07 (Springfield, Joplin, Branson)
Billy Long (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Billy Long re-elected, 66.3%)
Missouri-08 (Rolla, Cape Girardeau, Poplar Bluff)
Jason Smith (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jason Smith re-elected, 73.4%)

US House Elections 2018: Montana

Montana-At Large
Greg Gianforte (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Greg Gianforte re-elected, 51.1%)

US House Elections 2018: Nebraska

Nebraska-01 (Lincoln, Columbus, Bellevue)
Jeff Fortenberry (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jeff Fortenberry re-elected, 60.5%)
Nebraska-02 (Omaha, Papillion, Waterloo)
Don Bacon (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Don Bacon re-elected, 51.6%)
Nebraska-03 (Scottsbluff, North Platte, Grand Island)
Adrian Smith (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Adrian Smith re-elected, 76.7%)

US House Elections 2018: Nevada

Nevada-01 (Las Vegas [part], Paradise, Sunrise)
Dina Titus (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Dina Titus re-elected, 66.2%)
Nevada-02 (Reno, Winnemucca, Elko)
Mark Amodei (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mark Amodei re-elected, 58.2%)
Nevada-03 (Henderson, Summerlin South, Searchlight)
Jacky Rosen (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |
Actual: Dem Hold (Susie Lee elected, 51.9%)
Nevada-04 (North Las Vegas, Las Vegas [part], Tonopah)
Ruben Kihuen (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |
Actual: Dem Hold (Steven Horsford elected, 52.0%)

US House Elections 2018: New Hampshire

New Hampshire-01 (Manchester, Rochester, Conway)
Carol Shea-Porter (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |
Actual: Dem Hold (Chris Pappas elected, 53.5%)
New Hampshire-02 (Nashua, Concord, Lebanon, Berlin)
Annie Kuster (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Annie Kuster re-elected, 55.6%)

US House Elections 2018: New Jersey

New Jersey-01 (Camden, Cherry Hill, Glassboro)
Donald Norcross (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Donald Norcross re-elected, 64.3%)
New Jersey-02 (Atlantic City, Cape May, Millville)
Frank LoBiondo (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN ||
Actual: Dem GAIN (Jeff Van Drew elected, 52.3%)
New Jersey-03 (Toms River, Mount Laurel, Bordentown)
Tom MacArthur (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Not Called (Andy Kim-D leads, 49.9%)
New Jersey-04 (Wall, Freehold, Trenton [part])
Chris Smith (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Chris Smith re-elected, 55.5%)
New Jersey-05 (Washington, Sussex, New Milford)
Josh Gottheimer (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Josh Gottheimer re-elected, 55.2%)
New Jersey-06 (Long Branch, Perth Amboy, Metuchen)
Frank Pallone (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Frank Pallone re-elected, 63.3%)
New Jersey-07 (Flemington, Dover, Summit)
Leonard Lance (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Tom Malinowski elected, 51.5%)
New Jersey-08 (Elizabeth, Union City, Newark [part])
Albio Sires (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Albio Sires re-elected, 77.9%)
New Jersey-09 (Paterson, Fort Lee, East Rutherford)
Bill Pascrell (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Bill Pascrell re-elected, 70.0%)
New Jersey-10 (Jersey City [part], Newark [part], Linden)
Donald Payne Jr. (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Donald Payne, Jr. re-elected, 87.4%)
New Jersey-11 (Sparta, Pompton Lakes, Morristown)
Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Mikie Sherrill elected, 56.2%)
New Jersey-12 (Trenton [part], East Brunswick, Scotch Plains)
Bonnie Watson-Coleman (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Bonnie Watson Coleman re-elected, 68.5%)

US House Elections 2018: New Mexico

New Mexico-01 (Albuquerque, Moriarty, Mountainair)
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Debra Haaland elected, 59.1%)
New Mexico-02 (Roswell, Carlsbad, Las Cruces)
Steve Pearce (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Xochitl Torres-Small elected, 50.9%)
New Mexico-03 (Santa Fe, Clovis, Farmington)
Ben Ray Luján (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Ben Ray Lujan re-elected, 63.4%)

US House Elections 2018: New York

New York-01 (Smithtown, Riverhead, The Hamptons)
Lee Zeldin (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Lee Zeldin re-elected, 52.5%)
New York-02 (Massapequa, Islip, Sayville)
Pete King (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Pete King re-elected, 53.3%)
New York-03 (Huntington, Great Neck, Hicksville)
Tom Suozzi (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Tom Suozzi re-elected, 58.4%)
New York-04 (Long Beach, Hempstead, Westbury)
Kathleen Rice (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Kathleen Rice re-elected, 61.0%)
New York-05 (Rockaway, Jamaica, Elmont)
Gregory Meeks (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Gregory Meeks re-elected unopposed)
New York-06 (Bayside, Flushing, Elmhurst)
Grace Meng (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Grace Meng re-elected, 90.8%)
New York-07 (Ridgewood, Chinatown, Park Slope)
Nydia Velazquez (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Nydia Velazquez re-elected, 93.4%)
New York-08 (Bedford-Stuyvesant, Canarsie, Coney Island)
Hakeem Jeffries (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Hakeem Jeffries re-elected, 94.1%)
New York-09 (Prospect Park, Flatbush, Sheepshead Bay)
Yvette Clarke (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Yvette Clarke re-elected, 89.3%)
New York-10 (Upper West Side, Tribeca, New Utrecht)
Jerrold Nadler (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jerrold Nadler re-elected, 81.2%)
New York-11 (Staten Island, Fort Hamilton, Gravesend)
Dan Donovan (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Max Rose elected, 52.8%)
New York-12 (Upper East Side, East Village, Astoria)
Carolyn Maloney (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Carolyn Maloney re-elected, 86.2%)
New York-13 (Harlem, Washington Heights, Kingsbridge)
Adriano Espaillat (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Adriano Espaillat re-elected, 94.6%)
New York-14 (Woodside, Throggs Neck, City Island)
Joe Crowley (D) — LOST RENOMINATION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez elected, 78.0%)
New York-15 (Fordham, Mott Haven, Castle Hill)
Jose Serrano (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jose Serrano re-elected, 96.0%)
New York-16 (Yonkers, New Rochelle, Rye)
Eliot Engel (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Eliot Engel re-elected unopposed)
New York-17 (White Plains, Peekskill, Suffern)
Nita Lowey (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Nita Lowey re-elected, 87.9%)
New York-18 (Poughkeepsie, Katonah, Middletown)
Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Sean Patrick Maloney re-elected, 55.1%)
New York-19 (Oneonta, Hudson, Kingston)
John Faso (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Antonio Delgado elected, 50.2%)
New York-20 (Albany, Schenectady, Saratoga Springs)
Paul Tonko (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Paul Tonko re-elected, 66.1%)
New York-21 (Adirondacks, Watertown, Plattsburgh)
Elise Stefanik (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Elise Stefanik re-elected, 56.7%)
New York-22 (Binghamton, Utica, Cortland)
Claudia Tenney (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Anthony Brindisi elected, 50.4%)
New York-23 (Dunkirk, Elmira, Ithaca)
Tom Reed (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Tom Reed re-elected, 55.0%)
New York-24 (Syracuse, Oswego, Auburn)
John Katko (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (John Katko re-elected, 53.1%)
New York-25 (Rochester, Henrietta, Brockport)
Vacant — Previously Democratic
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Joe Morelle elected, 58.6%)
New York-26 (Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Cheektowaga)
Brian Higgins (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Brian Higgins re-elected, 73.1%)
New York-27 (Canandaigua, Batavia, Lockport)
Chris Collins (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Chris Collins re-elected, 49.4%)

US House Elections 2018: North Carolina

North Carolina-01 (Durham, Roanoke Rapids, Greenville)
GK Butterfield (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (GK Butterfield re-elected, 69.8%)
North Carolina-02 (Wake Forest, Apex [part], Nashville)
George Holding (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (George Holding re-elected, 51.4%)
North Carolina-03 (Outer Banks, New Bern, Jacksonville)
Walter Jones (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Walter Jones re-elected unopposed)
North Carolina-04 (Raleigh, Cary, Chapel Hill)
David Price (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (David Price re-elected, 72.3%)
North Carolina-05 (Winston-Salem, Mount Airy, Boone)
Virginia Foxx (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Virginia Foxx re-elected, 57.2%)
North Carolina-06 (Burlington, Pittsboro, Greensboro [part])
Mark Walker (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mark Walker re-elected, 56.6%)
North Carolina-07 (Wilmington, Clinton, Goldsboro)
David Rouzer (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (David Rouzer re-elected, 55.6%)
North Carolina-08 (Fayetteville [part], Albemarle, Concord)
Richard Hudson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Richard Hudson re-elected, 55.4%)
North Carolina-09 (Charlotte [part], Lumberton, Fayetteville [part])
Robert Pittenger (R) — LOST RENOMINATION
Predict: Rep Hold |
Apparent Winner: Rep Hold (Mark Harris-R leads, 49.4%)
North Carolina-10 (Asheville, Hickory, Gastonia)
Patrick McHenry (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Patrick McHenry re-elected, 59.3%)
North Carolina-11 (Smoky Mountains, Franklin, Morganton)
Mark Meadows (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mark Meadows re-elected, 59.2%)
North Carolina-12 (Charlotte [part], Huntersville, Cornelius)
Alma Adams (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Alma Adams re-elected, 73.0%)
North Carolina-13 (Greensboro [part], High Point, Statesville)
Ted Budd (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Ted Budd re-elected, 51.6%)

US House Elections 2018: North Dakota

North Dakota-At Large
Kevin Cramer (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Kelly Armstrong re-elected, 60.3%)

US House Elections 2018: Ohio

Ohio-01 (Cincinnati [part], Lebanon, Franklin)
Steve Chabot (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Steve Chabot re-elected, 51.8%)
Ohio-02 (Cincinnati [part], Georgetown, Portsmouth)
Brad Wenstrup (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Brad Wenstrup re-elected, 57.8%)
Ohio-03 (Columbus [part], Sharon, Reynoldsburg)
Joyce Beatty (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Joyce Beatty re-elected, 73.3%)
Ohio-04 (Lima, Marion, Elyria)
Jim Jordan (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jim Jordan re-elected, 65.4%)
Ohio-05 (Van Wert, Defiance, Bowling Green)
Bob Latta (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Bob Latta re-elected, 62.5%)
Ohio-06 (Jackson, Cambridge, Steubenville)
Bill Johnson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Bill Johnson re-elected, 69.3%)
Ohio-07 (Canton, Mount Vernon, Ashland)
Bob Gibbs (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Bob Gibbs re-elected, 58.9%)
Ohio-08 (Hamilton, Greenville, Springfield)
Warren Davidson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Warren Davidson re-elected, 66.8%)
Ohio-09 (Toledo, Sandusky, Brooklyn)
Marcy Kaptur (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Marcy Kaptur re-elected, 67.6%)
Ohio-10 (Dayton, Clayton, Washington Court House)
Mike Turner (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mike Turner re-elected, 56.2%)
Ohio-11 (Cleveland, Euclid, Akron [part])
Marcia Fudge (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Marcia Fudge re-elected, 81.9%)
Ohio-12 (Mansfield, Dublin, Zanesville)
Troy Balderson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Troy Balderson re-elected, 51.6%)
Ohio-13 (Youngstown, Alliance, Akron [part])
Tim Ryan (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Tim Ryan re-elected, 60.8%)
Ohio-14 (Ashtabula, Mentor, Macedonia)
Dave Joyce (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Dave Joyce re-elected, 55.4%)
Ohio-15 (Columbus [part], Wilmington, Athens)
Steve Stivers (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Steve Stivers re-elected, 58.5%)
Ohio-16 (Westlake, Medina, Wooster)
Jim Renacci (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Anthony Gonzalez elected, 56.8%)

US House Elections 2018: Oklahoma

Oklahoma-01 (Tulsa, Broken Arrow, Bartlesville)
Vacant – Previously Republican
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Kevin Hern elected, 59.3%)
Oklahoma-02 (Durant, Muskogee, Claremore)
Markwayne Mullin (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Markwayne Mullin re-elected, 65.0%)
Oklahoma-03 (Guymon, Yukon, Stillwater)
Frank Lucas (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Frank Lucas re-elected, 73.9%)
Oklahoma-04 (Lawton, Ardmore, Norman)
Tom Cole (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Tom Cole re-elected, 63.1%)
Oklahoma-05 (Oklahoma City, Edmond, Shawnee)
Steve Russell (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Dem GAIN (Kendra Horn elected, 50.7%)

US House Elections 2018: Oregon

Oregon-01 (Beaverton, Astoria, McMinnville)
Suzanne Bonamici (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Suzanne Bonamici re-elected, 63.5%)
Oregon-02 (Medford, Bend, LaGrande)
Greg Walden (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Greg Walden re-elected, 56.6%)
Oregon-03 (Portland, Gresham, Eagle Creek)
Earl Blumenauer (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Earl Blumenauer re-elected, 72.8%)
Oregon-04 (Roseburg, Eugene, Corvallis)
Peter DeFazio (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Peter DeFazio re-elected, 56.0%)
Oregon-05 (Tillamook, Salem, Oregon City)
Kurt Schrader (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Kurt Schrader re-elected, 55.1%)

US House Elections 2018: Pennsylvania

Please note: In February 2018, the Pennsylvania congressional district map was redrawn with a renumbering of seats. Since this was a wholesale change, rather than show rating changes for all the seats, we wiped the slate and started over.

Pennsylvania-01 (Levittown, Doylestown, Quakertown)
Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Rep Hold (Brian Fitzpatrick re-elected, 51.3%)
Pennsylvania-02 (Philadelphia [part])
Bob Brady (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Brendan Boyle re-elected, 79.0%)
Pennsylvania-03 (Philadelphia [part])
Dwight Evans (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Dwight Evans re-elected, 93.4%)
Pennsylvania-04 (Willow Grove, King of Prussia, Bala Cynwyd, Harleysville)
Brendan Boyle (D) — RUNNING IN PA-02
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Madeleine Dean elected, 63.4%)
Pennsylvania-05 (Philadelphia [part], Wayne, Upper Darby, Radnor, Media)
Pat Meehan (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |||
Actual: Dem GAIN (Mary Scanlon elected, 65.1%)
Pennsylvania-06 (Reading, West Chester, Exton, Oxford)
Ryan Costello (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Chrissy Houlahan elected, 58.8%)
Pennsylvania-07 (Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Stroudsburg)
Vacant — Previously Republican
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Susan Wild elected, 53.4%)
Pennsylvania-08 (Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton, Milford)
Matt Cartwright (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||
Actual: Dem Hold (Matt Cartwright re-elected, 54.6%)
Pennsylvania-09 (Levittown, Doylestown, Quakertown)
Lou Barletta (R) – NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Dan Meuser elected, 59.9%)
Pennsylvania-10 (Harrisburg, York, Carlisle, Mechanicsburg)
Scott Perry (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Scott Perry re-elected, 51.4%)
Pennsylvania-11 (Lancaster, Ephrata, Columbia, New Freedom)
Lloyd Smucker (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Lloyd Smucker re-elected, 58.6%)
Pennsylvania-12 (State College, Williamsport, Sunbury, Towanda)
Tom Marino (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Tom Marino re-elected, 66.2%)
Pennsylvania-13 (Altoona, Johnstown, Gettysburg, Somerset)
Bill Shuster (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (John Joyce elected, 70.4%)
Pennsylvania-14 (Washington, Uniontown, Greensburg, New Kensington)
Conor Lamb (D) — RUNNING IN PA-17
Predict: Rep GAIN ||
Actual: Rep GAIN (Guy Reschenthaler elected, 58.0%)
Pennsylvania-15 (Warren, DuBois, Indiana, Bradford)
Glenn Thompson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Glenn Thompson re-elected, 67.9%)
Pennsylvania-16 (Erie, Sharon, New Castle, Butler)
Mike Kelly (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mike Kelly re-elected, 51.5%)
Pennsylvania-17 (Mt. Lebanon, Moon, Oakmont, Center)
Keith Rothfus (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Conor Lamb re-elected, 56.2%)
Pennsylvania-18 (Pittsburgh, McKeesport, Jefferson Hills)
Mike Doyle (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Mike Doyle re-elected unopposed)

US House Elections 2018: Rhode Island

Rhode Island-01 (Providence [part], Woonsocket, Newport)
David Cicilline (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (David Cicilline re-elected, 66.9%)
Rhode Island-02 (Providence [part], Warwick, Westerly)
Jim Langevin (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jim Langevin re-elected, 63.6%)

US House Elections 2018: South Carolina

South Carolina-01 (Charleston, Summerville, Hilton Head)
Mark Sanford (R) — LOST RENOMINATION
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Dem GAIN (Joe Cunningham elected, 50.7%)
South Carolina-02 (Columbia [part], Lexington, Aiken)
Joe Wilson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Joe Wilson re-elected, 56.3%)
South Carolina-03 (Clemson, Anderson, Edgefield)
Jeff Duncan (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jeff Duncan re-elected, 67.8%)
South Carolina-04 (Greenville, Spartanburg, Greer)
Trey Gowdy (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (William Timmons elected, 59.6%)
South Carolina-05 (Rock Hill, Newberry, Camden)
Ralph Norman (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Ralph Norman re-elected, 57.1%)
South Carolina-06 (Columbia [part], Ridgeland, Charleston [part])
Jim Clyburn (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jim Clyburn re-elected, 70.2%)
South Carolina-07 (Myrtle Beach, Florence, Conway)
Tom Rice (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Tom Rice re-elected, 59.6%)

US House Elections 2018: South Dakota

South Dakota-At Large
Kristi Noem (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Dusty Johnson re-elected, 60.3%)

US House Elections 2018: Tennessee

Tennessee-01 (Bristol, Kingsport, Morristown)
Phil Roe (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Phil Roe re-elected, 77.1%)
Tennessee-02 (Knoxville, Maryville, Tazewell)
Jimmy Duncan (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Tim Burchett elected, 65.8%)
Tennessee-03 (Chattanooga, Oak Ridge, LaFollette)
Chuck Fleischmann (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Chuck Fleischmann re-elected, 63.7%)
Tennessee-04 (Murfreesboro, Cleveland, McMinnville)
Scott DesJarlais (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Scott DesJarlais re-elected, 63.4%)
Tennessee-05 (Nashville, Dickson)
Jim Cooper (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Jim Cooper re-elected, 67.8%)
Tennessee-06 (Gallatin, Tullahoma, Crossville)
Diane Black (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (John Rose elected, 69.5%)
Tennessee-07 (Clarksville, Franklin, Waynesboro)
Marsha Blackburn (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mark Green elected, 66.8%)
Tennessee-08 (Jackson, Dyersburg, Memphis [part])
David Kustoff (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (David Kustoff re-elected, 67.6%)
Tennessee-09 (Memphis [part], Cordova, Millington)
Steve Cohen (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Steve Cohen re-elected, 79.9%)

US House Elections 2018: Texas

Texas-01 (Tyler, Longview, Lufkin)
Louie Gohmert (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Louie Gohmert re-elected, 72.3%)
Texas-02 (Houston [part], Atascocita, Spring)
Ted Poe (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Dan Crenshaw elected, 52.9%)
Texas-03 (Plano, Frisco, McKinney)
Sam Johnson (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Van Taylor elected, 54.3%)
Texas-04 (Sherman, Sulphur Springs, Texarkana)
John Ratcliffe (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (John Ratcliffe re-elected, 75.7%)
Texas-05 (Mesquite, Athens, Jacksonville)
Jeb Hensarling (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Lance Gooden elected, 62.5%)
Texas-06 (Arlington [part], Ennis, Corsicana)
Joe Barton (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Ron Wright elected, 53.1%)
Texas-07 (Houston [part], Bellaire, Jersey Village)
John Culberson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Lizzie Fletcher elected, 52.5%)
Texas-08 (Crockett, Huntsville, The Woodlands)
Kevin Brady (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Kevin Brady re-elected, 73.5%)
Texas-09 (Houston [part], Mission Bend)
Al Green (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Al Green re-elected, 89.1%)
Texas-10 (Austin [part], Columbus, Cypress)
Michael McCaul (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Michael McCaul re-elected, 50.9%)
Texas-11 (Midland, San Angelo, Mineral Wells)
Mike Conaway (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mike Conaway re-elected, 80.2%)
Texas-12 (Fort Worth [part], Weatherford, Decatur)
Kay Granger (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Kay Granger re-elected, 64.3%)
Texas-13 (Amarillo, Wichita Falls, Gainesville)
Mac Thornberry (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mac Thornberry re-elected, 81.6%)
Texas-14 (Beaumont, Galveston, Freeport)
Randy Weber (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Randy Weber re-elected, 59.3%)
Texas-15 (McAllen, Edinburg, Seguin)
Vicente Gonzalez (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Vicente Gonzalez re-elected, 59.7%)
Texas-16 (El Paso, Vinton, Horizon City)
Beto O’Rourke (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Veronica Escobar elected, 68.4%)
Texas-17 (Waco, College Station, Austin [part])
Bill Flores (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Bill Flores re-elected, 56.9%)
Texas-18 (Houston [part])
Sheila Jackson Lee (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Sheila Jackson Lee re-elected, 75.2%)
Texas-19 (Lubbock, Big Spring, Abilene)
Jodey Arrington (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jodey Arrington re-elected, 75.3%)
Texas-20 (San Antonio [part])
Joaquin Castro (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Joaquin Castro re-elected, 80.9%)
Texas-21 (San Antonio [part], Kerrville, Austin [part])
Lamar Smith (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Chip Roy elected, 50.3%)
Texas-22 (Sugar Land, Pearland, Richmond)
Pete Olson (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Pete Olson re-elected, 51.4%)
Texas-23 (Pecos, Del Rio, San Antonio [part])
Will Hurd (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Not Called (Will Hurd-R leads, 49.2%)
Texas-24 (Carrollton, Addison, Euless)
Kenny Marchant (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Kenny Marchant re-elected, 50.7%)
Texas-25 (Austin [part], Gatesville, Cleburn)
Roger Williams (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Roger Williams re-elected, 53.6%)
Texas-26 (Denton, Lewisville, Keller)
Michael Burgess (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Michael Burgess re-elected, 59.4%)
Texas-27 (Corpus Christi, Victoria, Bay City)
Michael Cloud (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Michael Cloud re-elected, 60.3%)
Texas-28 (Mission, Laredo, Live Oak)
Henry Cuellar (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Henry Cuellar re-elected, 84.4%)
Texas-29 (Houston [part], South Houston)
Gene Green (D) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Sylvia Garcia elected, 75.1%)
Texas-30 (Dallas [part], Duncanville, Lancaster)
Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Eddie Bernice Johnson re-elected, 91.1%)
Texas-31 (Round Rock, Killeen, Temple)
John Carter (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (John Carter re-elected, 50.6%)
Texas-32 (Dallas [part], Garland, Wylie)
Pete Sessions (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Colin Allred elected, 52.2%)
Texas-33 (Fort Worth [part], Irving, Dallas [part])
Marc Veasey (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Marc Veasey re-elected, 76.1%)
Texas-34 (Brownsville, Harlingen, Beeville)
Filemon Vela (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Filemon Vila re-elected, 60.0%)
Texas-35 (San Antonio [part], New Braunfels [part], Austin [part])
Lloyd Doggett (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Lloyd Doggett re-elected, 71.2%)
Texas-36 (Baytown, Orange, Livingston)
Brian Babin (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Brian Babin re-elected, 72.6%)

US House Elections 2018: Utah

Utah-01 (Logan, Ogen, Vernal)
Rob Bishop (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Rob Bishop re-elected, 61.6%)
Utah-02 (Salt Lake City [part], Richfield, St. George)
Chris Stewart (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Chris Stewart re-elected, 56.1%)
Utah-03 (Cottonwood Heights, Provo, Moab)
John Curtis (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (John Curtis re-elected, 67.5%)
Utah-04 (Salt Lake City [part], South Jordan, Nephi)
Mia Love (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Ben McAdams elected, 50.1%)

US House Elections 2018: Vermont

Vermont-At Large
Peter Welch (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Peter Welch re-elected, 69.2%)

US House Elections 2018: Virginia

Virginia-01 (Bull Run, Fredericksburg, West Point)
Rob Wittman (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Rob Wittman re-elected, 55.2%)
Virginia-02 (Virginia Beach, Williamsburg, Eastern Shore)
Scott Taylor (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Elaine Luria elected, 51.1%)
Virginia-03 (Norfolk, Newport News, Smithfield)
Bobby Scott (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Bobby Scott re-elected unopposed)
Virginia-04 (Chesapeake, Petersburg, Richmond)
Donald McEachin (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Donald McEachin re-elected, 62.6%)
Virginia-05 (Charlottesville, Warrenton, Danville)
Tom Garrett (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Denver Riggleman elected, 53.3%)
Virginia-06 (Roanoke, Lynchburg, Front Royal)
Bob Goodlatte (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Ben Cline elected, 59.8%)
Virginia-07 (Midlothian, Glen Allen, Culpeper)
Dave Brat (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Abby Spanberger elected, 50.4%)
Virginia-08 (Arlington, Alexandria, Woodlawn)
Don Beyer (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Don Beyer re-elected, 76.3%)
Virginia-09 (Bristol, Blacksburg, Covington)
Morgan Griffith (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Morgan Griffith elected, 65.2%)
Virginia-10 (Winchester, Ashburn, Manassas)
Barbara Comstock (R)
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Jennifer Wexton elected, 56.2%)
Virginia-11 (Reston, Fairfax, Woodbridge)
Gerry Connolly (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Gerry Connolly re-elected, 71.2%)

US House Elections 2018: Washington

Washington-01 (Blaine, Snohomish, Redmond)
Suzan DelBene (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Suzan DelBene re-elected, 59.2%)
Washington-02 (Everett, Anacortes, Bellingham)
Rick Larsen (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Rick Larsen re-elected, 71.5%)
Washington-03 (Vancouver, Longview, Centralia)
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jaime Herrera Beutler re-elected, 52.9%)
Washington-04 (Yakima, Richland, Omak)
Dan Newhouse (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Dan Newhouse re-elected, 64.5%)
Washington-05 (Spokane, Walla Walla, Colville)
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Cathy McMorris Rodgers re-elected, 55.1%)
Washington-06 (Aberdeen, Tacoma [part], Port Angeles)
Derek Kilmer (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Derek Kilmer re-elected, 63.4%)
Washington-07 (Seattle [part], Shoreline, Burien)
Pramila Jayapal (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Pramila Jayapal re-elected, 83.4%)
Washington-08 (Issaquah, Auburn, Wenatchee)
Dave Reichert (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Dem GAIN |
Actual: Dem GAIN (Kim Schrier elected, 52.6%)
Washington-09 (Seattle [part], Bellevue, Federal Way)
Adam Smith (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Adam Smith re-elected, 68.2%)
Washington-10 (Tacoma [part], Puyallup, Olympia)
Denny Heck (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Denny Heck re-elected, 61.3%)

US House Elections 2018: West Virginia

West Virginia-01 (Parkersburg, Wheeling, Morgantown)
David McKinley (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (David McKinley re-elected, 64.6%)
West Virginia-02 (Charleston, Elkins, Harper’s Ferry)
Alex Mooney (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Alex Mooney re-elected, 54.0%)
West Virginia-03 (Huntington, Beckley, Bluefield)
Vacant — Previously Republican
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Carol Miller elected, 56.4%)

US House Elections 2018: Wisconsin

Wisconsin-01 (Janesville, Racine, Kenosha)
Paul Ryan (R) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Rep Hold |
Actual: Rep Hold (Bryan Steil elected, 54.6%)
Wisconsin-02 (Madison, Monroe, Reedsburg)
Mark Pocan (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Mark Pocan re-elected unopposed)
Wisconsin-03 (Eau Claire, La Crosse, Wisconsin Rapids)
Ron Kind (D)
Predict: Dem Hold |||
Actual: Dem Hold (Ron Kind re-elected, 59.7%)
Wisconsin-04 (Milwaukee, Cudahy, Shorewood)
Gwen Moore (D)
Predict: Dem Hold ||||
Actual: Dem Hold (Gwen Moore re-elected, 75.7%)
Wisconsin-05 (Waukesha, West Bend, Watertown)
Jim Sensenbrenner (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||||
Actual: Rep Hold (Jim Sensenbrenner re-elected, 62.0%)
Wisconsin-06 (Oshkosh, Fond du Lac, Sheboygan)
Glenn Grothman (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Glenn Grothman re-elected, 55.5%)
Wisconsin-07 (Wausau, Rhinelander, Superior)
Sean Duffy (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Sean Duffy re-elected, 60.2%)
Wisconsin-08 (Green Bay, Appleton, Marinette)
Mike Gallagher (R)
Predict: Rep Hold ||
Actual: Rep Hold (Mike Gallager re-elected, 63.7%)

US House Elections 2018: Wyoming

Wyoming-At Large
Liz Cheney (R)
Predict: Rep Hold |||
Actual: Rep Hold (Liz Cheney re-elected, 63.7%)

US House Elections 2018: Rating Changes

Most recent US House rating changes at top.

November 4, 2018
AK-At Large (R2 to R1), IA-03 (R1 to D1), KY-06 (D1 to R1), ME-02 (R1 to D1), MI-08 (R1 to D1), NJ-02 (D1 to D2), NJ-05 (D1 to D2), TX-07 (R2 to R1), UT-04 (R1 to D1)
October 20, 2018
CA-10 (R1 to D1), CO-03 (R3 to R2), CT-05 (D2 to D3), FL-07 (D1 to D2), FL-13 (D1 to D2), FL-15 (R2 to R1), MN-08 (D1 to R1), NY-27 (R2 to R1), NC-13 (R2 to R1), PA-01 (R1 to D1), TX-07 (R3 to R2), TX-23 (R1 to R2), TX-32 (R2 to R1)
October 7, 2018
CA-22 (R3 to R2), CA-45 (R1 to D1), CT-02 (D3 to D4), IL-14 (R2 to R1), KS-03 (R1 to D1), NC-09 (D1 to R1)
September 15, 2018
CA-08 (R3 to R4), CA-50 (R3 to R1), CO-06 (R1 to D1), FL-10 (D3 to D4), FL-21 (D3 to D4), FL-22 (D3 to D4), FL-23 (D3 to D4), FL-27 (D2 to D1), GA-02 (D2 to D3), GA-08 (R3 to R4), HI-02 (D3 to D4), IL-03 (D3 to D4), IL-06 (R2 to D1), IA-03 (R2 to R1), KS-02 (R2 to D1), KS-03 (R2 to R1), MI-01 (R3 to R2), MI-06 (R3 to R2), MI-08 (R2 to R1), MI-11 (R1 to D1), MN-03 (R1 to D1), MN-08 (R1 to D1), MO-02 (R3 to R1), MO-05 (D3 to D4), NH-02 (D2 to D3), NJ-03 (R2 to R1), NJ-07 (R1 to D1), NM-02 (R3 to R1), NY-06 (D3 to D4), NY-22 (R2 to D1), NY-27 (R3 to R2), NC-02 (R3 to R1), NC-03 (R3 to R4), NC-09 (R1 to D1), OH-12 (R3 to R1), PA-14 (R1 to R2), PA-17 (R2 to D1), SC-01 (R3 to R2), TX-20 (D3 to D4), VA-02 (R2 to R1), WA-02 (D3 to D4), WA-05 (R3 to R1), WA-09 (D3 to D4), WV-03 (R2 to R1), WI-01 (R2 to R1), WI-03 (D2 to D3)
July 22, 2018
CA-48 (R1 to D1), MT-AL (R2 to R1), NC-09 (R2 to R1), UT-04 (R2 to R1), WV-03 (R3 to R2)
June 16, 2018
IA-01 (R1 to D1), KY-06 (R2 to D1), MI-11 (R2 to R1), NE-02 (D1 to R1), NV-03 (R1 to D1), NC-09 (R3 to R2), VA-05 (R2 to R1), VA-07 (R2 to R1), WI-01 (R3 to R2)
February 21, 2018
Various Pennsylvania Changes — Redistricting
January 29, 2018
NJ-11 (R1 to D1)
January 8, 2018
CA-39 (R1 to D1)

US House Elections 2018: November 4, 2018 Analysis

Our final House prediction is a Democratic gain of 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. We would be comfortable saying it can go as high as 45-50 in a serious rout. It might be as small as a 20-seat gain, which is still significant, but not a winner for the Democrats.

A few races have broken late against the GOP, who are in “save the furniture” mode as the Australians say in their politics. It’s less now for the Republicans about clinging to the House, which is still technically possible but unlikely, and more about keeping it from being a wipeout. They are trying to preserve the numbers they have in hopes that in 2020 they might be able to flip a few back and retake control. If it ends up being 224 Democratic seats as we project, the GOP would only need to gain seven to do so, but that’s a matter for another election.

US House Elections 2018: October 20, 2018 Analysis

The Democrats are still on track for a House majority as we enter the last few weeks of the campaign. As you can see, over time, the Democratic gains have increased with each prediction, but they are not entering stratospheric territory.

Democrats hoping to gain 50 to 60 seats will be disappointed by this round of predictions, as we think it’s looking more like 25 to 30. This is under what some other pundits project with their models, but our job is not to match what other analysts say.

It is clear the Democrats will gain seats; it’s just a question of how many. At least a dozen seats are gone for the Republicans, so that is the Democratic baseline. The best-case scenario at this point for the GOP is losing somewhere around 20 seats (which, by the way, still gives them a majority). Worst case is closer to 50, but we are not going that far just yet.

US House Elections 2018: October 7, 2018 Analysis

Only a few races updated in our latest changes, which still forecasts a narrow Democratic majority.

We must confront the very real possibility that the Democrats make strong gains in the House and either stall out or lose seats in the Senate. In spite of that, there are pundits out there suggesting more than a gain of 25 or so. There are Democratic leads that we just don’t see materializing. For example, we’re not giving away anything in North Carolina, there’s only so much more they can lose in California, and they have held their own in some close races like FL-26 and VA-02.

Could the Democratic majority come down to picking up a few seats in red states like Kansas, Arizona, and Kentucky? At this point, we think yes.

Consider also that there are dozens of Republicans seats we have just barely in their column. A little boost in turnout could still save the House GOP, just like a very energized Democratic turnout could flip two dozen more seats. Rule number one is getting your people out to vote. We know the Democrats are going to vote and they have been waiting for this since Trump’s election. Will the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court drama motivate Republican voters to support the party? It’s a little too soon to tell but we are NOT as bullish on Democratic chances as some of the talking heads.

The best-case scenario for the GOP is losing about a dozen seats, and the worst is closer to 50.

US House Elections 2018: September 15, 2018 Analysis

Democrats are moving squarely into majority territory on our long-overdue updated predictions for the US House election. With a number of races moving in their direction, it’s becoming more possible that they will retake the House for the first time since 2010.

National generic ballot polls are one thing, but you could find two-dozen districts that could flip from Republican to Democratic if examining local trends. We did. While the GOP might hold the Senate, it’s becoming less likely they keep both chambers. Also consider just how many Republican seats now we have as “Weak Leans.” Things could really get away from them if Democrats turn out and independents break away from Republicans. Poll numbers for the GOP have been bad, and while they might not lose every seat in play, they’re going to lose enough of them to, at best, eliminate most of their majority.

The best-case scenario for Republicans at this stage is losing a dozen seats and narrowly retaining House control. Counting the changes in Pennsylvania and a handful of others across the country that are just gone, that’s the starting point. Remember, the Democrats can pick up 20 seats — a good night by most election standards — and still not win back the House.

Worst-case is something like what the GOP did to Democrats in 2010. There are only a few legitimate opportunities for the Republicans to gain seats and shear a potential Democratic wave. Given that there are maybe three such seats in the United States right now, it would be the proverbial flatuence in a tornado.

We are still being somewhat conservative with Democratic gain totals. Sure, it COULD be 50 but if we’re going that far out on a limb, it won’t be until right before the election when we have a much better idea of how this thing’s going to go. Just keep in mind we will never rate a race as a toss-up.

US House Elections 2018: June 16, 2018 Analysis

The number of Democratic gains is increasing as we map the course to the November 2018 elections. In June, we’re not going out on a big limb with +14 for the Democrats. It could end up being 20 or 30 if things break their way, but primaries are still ongoing in some states and once the Fall hits, we will know much more.

US House Elections 2018: January 1, 2018 Analysis

Our initial round of predictions for the US House Elections 2018 gives a Democratic net gain of eight. That would leave the Republicans with a majority of 233 to 202.

Take your pick of political commentators out there in the ether. Many suspect the Democrats will do well in 2018, and the US House is not impervious to the building blue wave. Yet, 10 months before the election, the hard part is figuring out where those gains will be. Most House races have not taken shape, so that Dem +8 could get much bigger or smaller. In 2010, when the Republicans gained 64 seats, and it wasn’t until the very end that the pundits sniffed out a Republican gain even in the 40 to 50 range. There is a long, long way to go.

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