Victoria Election 2018 Predictions and Results

All about Victoria Election 2018, including predictions and final results once the last booth is counted.

Four years ago, the Labor Party under Dan Andrews retook power in the State Parliament. With their victory, they sent the Coalition out after just one term. Can Matthew Guy and the Coalition turn the tables on Andrews and Labor?

To do that, they will need a gain of eight seats from their dissolution position of 37. 45 are needed for a majority in the 88-seat legislature.

Australia had several other noteworthy elections in 2018. Tasmania re-elected its Liberal government, South Australia delivered a new Liberal government, and the Wentworth, NSW by-election gave the Liberals a black eye. This may be the final state election before the 2019 federal election, although if it is not called prior to March, New South Wales will have theirs first.

For more on Australian elections we have covered on Electionarium, please see our Australian elections page.

NAVIGATE VICTORIA ELECTION 2018: Victoria Party Leaders | Results | Seat-by-Seat Predictions & Results | Analysis

Victoria Election 2018: Western Victoria Region

Victoria Election 2018: Eastern Victoria Region

Victoria Election 2018: Western Metropolitan Region

Victoria Election 2018: Northern Metropolitan Region

Victoria Election 2018: Southern Metropolitan Region

Victoria Election 2018: Eastern Metropolitan Region

Victoria Election 2018: South Eastern Metropolitan Region

Had we done a full final prediction for this race, we’d have probably nudged Labor at or a little above 50 seats, but not to the level that they actually got. Labor’s landslide has to be a major concern to the local Liberals, for obvious reasons, as well as the federal party that a wipeout may be coming.

This election was a complete disaster for the Coalition in Victoria, and the factional war within it is blossoming, spilling down from the federal drama. (Link: Australian Financial Review) The devastating loss for the Liberals was followed by the defection of a federal Liberal MP, Julia Banks of Chisholm, to the crossbench. (Link: ABC News) It is coming apart at the seams for the Coalition, and it’s difficult not to take a bigger picture view of the political landscape from what happened in Victoria.

On the state level, voters seemed pleased to give Dan Andrews another go, but it was as much about Matthew Guy as it was Andrews. The Liberal candidate in Albert Park said that Guy was “unelectable” while also blaming the party for going too far right and putting together an inconsistent message. (Links: ABC News, The Age) What we witnessed in Victoria was a combination of things: a bad Liberal campaign at the state level, relative popularity of the incumbent government, and lingering irritation by the electorate at the federal Liberal theatrics.

Victoria Election 2018 Analysis, 13 November 2018

Labor remains on track for a majority government, and now we think a larger one than what they have now. This corresponds to a rise in the polls for Labor, who may get a statewide swing of a percent or two. There is little reason to believe at this point that the Coalition is making inroads, and in fact, there’s more evidence to suggest the opposite.

Dan Andrews is a somewhat popular premier, and the disparity between him and Matthew Guy is exacerbated by Guy’s low approval ratings.

Victoria Election 2018 Analysis, 28 October 2018

The opinion polls for the 2018 election in Victoria have been relatively consistent: Labor leading, though not by a lot. In fact, the most recent poll to come out in October showed that on a two-party preferred basis, the 2018 election would nearly match the 2014 edition. (Link: The Age/ReachTEL)

Are we headed for a replay of 2014 with a narrow Labor majority being returned? We’ll know soon as the campaign just kicked off today, and Parliament is being dissolved on Tuesday.