Victoria Election 2018 Predictions and Results

Labor seeking re-election in Australia's last 2018 poll.

Victoria Election 2018

All about Victoria Election 2018, including predictions and final results once the last booth is counted.

Four years ago, the Labor Party under Dan Andrews retook power in the State Parliament. With their victory, they sent the Coalition out after just one term. Can Matthew Guy and the Coalition turn the tables on Andrews and Labor?

To do that, they will need a gain of eight seats from their dissolution position of 37. 45 are needed for a majority in the 88-seat legislature.

Australia had several other noteworthy elections in 2018. Tasmania re-elected its Liberal government, South Australia delivered a new Liberal government, and the Wentworth, NSW by-election gave the Liberals a black eye. This may be the final state election before the 2019 federal election, although if it is not called prior to March, New South Wales will have theirs first.

For more on Australian elections we have covered on Electionarium, please see our Australian elections page.

NAVIGATE VICTORIA ELECTION 2018: Victoria Party Leaders | Results | Seat-by-Seat Predictions & Results | Analysis

Victoria Election 2018 Party Leaders (Major Parties)

Australian Labor Party/Victorian Labor (ALP)
Daniel Andrews (Premier, MP for Mulgrave)
Liberal Party (Lib)
Matthew Guy (Leader of the Opposition, MP for Bulleen)
The Nationals Victoria (Nat)
Peter Walsh (MP for Murray Plains)
Australian Greens Victoria (Grn)
Samantha Ratnam (MLC for Northern Metropolitan)

Victoria Election 2018: Results

Victoria Election 2018 results

Victoria Election 2018: Northern Victoria Region

Benambra
Bill Tilley (Lib 9.7)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 8.88
Bendigo East
Jacinta Allan (ALP 5.0)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 12.11
Bendigo West
Maree Edwards (ALP 12.2)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 18.63
Eildon
Cindy McLeish (Lib 3.8)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 2.26
Euroa
Steph Ryan (Nat 14.5)
Predict: Nat Hold
Actual: Nat Hold 15.45
Macedon
Mary-Anne Thomas (ALP 3.8)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 13.30
Mildura
Peter Crisp (Nat 8.0 vs. Ind)
Predict: Nat Hold
Actual: Ind leads 0.39
Murray Plains
Peter Walsh (Nat 22.4)
Predict: Nat Hold
Actual: Nat Hold 24.04
Ovens Valley
Tim McCurdy (Nat 16.6)
Predict: Nat Hold
Actual: Nat Hold 12.72
Shepparton
Suzanna Sheed (Ind 2.6 vs. Nat)
Predict: Ind Hold
Actual: Ind Hold 5.35
Yan Yean
Danielle Green (ALP 3.7)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 16.74

Victoria Election 2018: Western Victoria Region

Bellarine
Lisa Neville (ALP 4.8)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 11.48
Buninyong
Geoff Howard (ALP 6.4) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 11.81
Geelong
Christine Couzens (ALP 6.0)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 6.22
Lara
John Eren (ALP 17.1)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 19.62
Lowan
Emma Kealy (Nat 21.3)
Predict: Nat Hold
Actual: Nat Hold 23.48
Melton
Don Nardella (Ind, elected ALP 11.2) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: ALP GAIN
Actual: ALP GAIN 4.55
Polwarth
Richard Riordan (Lib 10.6)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 5.48
Ripon
Louise Staley (Lib 0.8)
Predict: ALP GAIN
Actual: Lib leads 0.08
South Barwon
Andrew Katos (Lib 2.9)
Predict: ALP GAIN
Actual: ALP GAIN 4.53
South-West Coast
Roma Britnell (Lib 11.0)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 2.45
Wendouree
Sharon Knight (ALP 5.8) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 10.19

Victoria Election 2018: Eastern Victoria Region

Bass
Brian Paynter (Lib 4.6)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: ALP GAIN 1.80
Evelyn
Christine Fyffe (Lib 9.6) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 2.82
Gembrook
Brad Battin (Lib 9.0)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 1.07
Gippsland East
Tim Bull (Nat 17.9)
Predict: Nat Hold
Actual: Nat Hold 17.71
Gippsland South
Peter Ryan (Nat 15.7)
Predict: Nat Hold
Actual: Nat Hold 15.30
Hastings
Neale Burgess (Lib 7.6)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 1.05
Monbulk
James Merlino (ALP 5.0)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 8.63
Mornington
David Morris (Lib 12.6)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 5.03
Morwell
Russell Northe (Ind, elected as Nat 1.8)
Predict: ALP GAIN
Actual: Ind Hold 1.80
Narracan
Gary Blackwood (Lib 11.3)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 7.23
Nepean
Martin Dixon (Lib 7.6) – NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: ALP GAIN 0.94

Victoria Election 2018: Western Metropolitan Region

Altona
Jill Hennessy (ALP 12.6)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 15.47
Essendon
Danny Pearson (ALP 8.7)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 15.73
Footscray
Marsha Thomson (ALP 14.5) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 28.34
Kororoit
Marlene Kairouz (ALP 20.0)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 25.73
Niddrie
Ben Carroll (ALP 7.7)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 12.57
St. Albans
Natalie Suleyman (ALP 17.5)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 21.59
Sunbury
Josh Bull (ALP 4.3)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 14.96
Sydenham
Natalie Hutchins (ALP 16.3)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 18.07
Tarneit
Telmo Languiller (ALP 14.6) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 18.12
Werribee
Tim Pallas (ALP 15.7)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 12.43
Williamstown
Wade Noonan (ALP 16.5) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 22.19

Victoria Election 2018: Northern Metropolitan Region

Broadmeadows
Frank McGuire (ALP 27.8)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 30.33
Brunswick
Jane Garrett (ALP 2.2 vs GRN)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: Grn leads 0.48
Bundoora
Colin Brooks (ALP 12.2)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 17.48
Melbourne
Ellen Sandell (Grn 2.4 vs. ALP)
Predict: Grn Hold
Actual: Grn Hold 1.54
Mill Park
Lily D’Ambrosio (ALP 19.9)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 24.91
Northcote
Lidia Thorpe (Grn 5.6 vs. ALP)
Predict: Grn Hold
Actual: ALP GAIN 2.82
Pascoe Vale
Lizzie Blandthorn (ALP 16.8)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 8.46 vs Ind
Preston
Robin Scott (ALP 24.7)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 22.26
Richmond
Richard Wynne (ALP 1.9 vs. Grn)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 5.73
Thomastown
Bronwyn Halfpenny (ALP 28.4)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 27.94
Yuroke
Ros Spence (ALP 18.5)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 20.53

Victoria Election 2018: Southern Metropolitan Region

Albert Park
Martin Foley (ALP 3.0)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 13.22
Bentleigh
Nick Staikos (ALP 0.8)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 11.98
Brighton
Louise Asher (Lib 9.8) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 0.97
Burwood
Graham Watt (Lib 3.2)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: ALP GAIN 3.41
Caulfield
David Southwick (Lib 4.9)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 1.82
Hawthorn
John Pesutto (Lib 8.6)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: ALP leads 0.20
Kew
Tim Smith (Lib 10.6)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 4.64
Malvern
Michael O’Brien (Lib 16.3)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 5.97
Oakleigh
Steve Dimopoulos (ALP 8.2)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 15.95
Prahran
Sam Hibbins (Grn 0.4 vs Lib)
Predict: Grn Hold
Actual: Grn Hold 7.27
Sandringham
Murray Thompson (Lib 7.3) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 0.61

Victoria Election 2018: Eastern Metropolitan Region

Bayswater
Heidi Victoria (Lib 4.6)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: ALP leads 0.35
Box Hill
Robert Clark (Lib 5.7)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: ALP GAIN 2.03
Bulleen
Matthew Guy (Lib 10.6)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 5.827
Croydon
David Hodgett (Lib 9.3)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 2.17
Eltham
Vicki Ward (ALP 2.7)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 7.13
Ferntree Gully
Nick Wakeling (Lib 7.8)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 1.71
Forest Hill
Neil Angus (Lib 4.8)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 1.20
Ivanhoe
Anthony Carbines (ALP 3.4)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 12.30
Mount Waverley
Michael Gidley (Lib 4.6)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: ALP GAIN 1.46
Ringwood
Dee Ryall (Lib 5.1)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: ALP GAIN 2.89
Warrandyte
Ryan Smith (Lib 11.6)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 3.94

Victoria Election 2018: South Eastern Metropolitan Region

Carrum
Sonya Kilkenny (ALP 0.7)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 12.28
Clarinda
Hong Lim (ALP 15.8) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 17.58
Cranbourne
Jude Perera (ALP 2.3) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 11.14
Dandenong
Gabrielle Williams (ALP 12.9)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 23.97
Frankston
Paul Edbrooke (ALP 0.5)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 9.80
Keysborough
Martin Pakula (ALP 11.9)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 14.86
Mordialloc
Tim Richardson (ALP 2.1)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 12.97
Mulgrave
Daniel Andrews (ALP 4.5)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 12.92
Narre Warren North
Luke Donnellan (ALP 4.6)
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 9.76
Narre Warren South
Judith Graley (ALP 5.5) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Predict: ALP Hold
Actual: ALP Hold 7.19
Rowville
Kim Wells (Lib 8.4)
Predict: Lib Hold
Actual: Lib Hold 5.60

Victoria Election 2018 Final Results Analysis, 29 November 2018

Had we done a full final prediction for this race, we’d have probably nudged Labor at or a little above 50 seats, but not to the level that they actually got. Labor’s landslide has to be a major concern to the local Liberals, for obvious reasons, as well as the federal party that a wipeout may be coming.

This election was a complete disaster for the Coalition in Victoria, and the factional war within it is blossoming, spilling down from the federal drama. (Link: Australian Financial Review) The devastating loss for the Liberals was followed by the defection of a federal Liberal MP, Julia Banks of Chisholm, to the crossbench. (Link: ABC News) It is coming apart at the seams for the Coalition, and it’s difficult not to take a bigger picture view of the political landscape from what happened in Victoria.

On the state level, voters seemed pleased to give Dan Andrews another go, but it was as much about Matthew Guy as it was Andrews. The Liberal candidate in Albert Park said that Guy was “unelectable” while also blaming the party for going too far right and putting together an inconsistent message. (Links: ABC News, The Age) What we witnessed in Victoria was a combination of things: a bad Liberal campaign at the state level, relative popularity of the incumbent government, and lingering irritation by the electorate at the federal Liberal theatrics.

Victoria Election 2018 Analysis, 13 November 2018

Labor remains on track for a majority government, and now we think a larger one than what they have now. This corresponds to a rise in the polls for Labor, who may get a statewide swing of a percent or two. There is little reason to believe at this point that the Coalition is making inroads, and in fact, there’s more evidence to suggest the opposite.

Dan Andrews is a somewhat popular premier, and the disparity between him and Matthew Guy is exacerbated by Guy’s low approval ratings.

Victoria Election 2018 Analysis, 28 October 2018

The opinion polls for the 2018 election in Victoria have been relatively consistent: Labor leading, though not by a lot. In fact, the most recent poll to come out in October showed that on a two-party preferred basis, the 2018 election would nearly match the 2014 edition. (Link: The Age/ReachTEL)

Are we headed for a replay of 2014 with a narrow Labor majority being returned? We’ll know soon as the campaign just kicked off today, and Parliament is being dissolved on Tuesday.

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