All about Victoria Election 2018, including predictions and final results once the last booth is counted.
Four years ago, the Labor Party under Dan Andrews retook power in the State Parliament. With their victory, they sent the Coalition out after just one term. Can Matthew Guy and the Coalition turn the tables on Andrews and Labor?
To do that, they will need a gain of eight seats from their dissolution position of 37. 45 are needed for a majority in the 88-seat legislature.
Australia had several other noteworthy elections in 2018. Tasmania re-elected its Liberal government, South Australia delivered a new Liberal government, and the Wentworth, NSW by-election gave the Liberals a black eye. This may be the final state election before the 2019 federal election, although if it is not called prior to March, New South Wales will have theirs first.
For more on Australian elections we have covered on Electionarium, please see our Australian elections page.
NAVIGATE VICTORIA ELECTION 2018: Victoria Party Leaders | Results | Seat-by-Seat Predictions & Results | Analysis
Victoria Election 2018 Party Leaders (Major Parties)
| Australian Labor Party/Victorian Labor (ALP) |
|---|
| Daniel Andrews (Premier, MP for Mulgrave) |
| Liberal Party (Lib) |
| Matthew Guy (Leader of the Opposition, MP for Bulleen) |
| The Nationals Victoria (Nat) |
| Peter Walsh (MP for Murray Plains) |
| Australian Greens Victoria (Grn) |
| Samantha Ratnam (MLC for Northern Metropolitan) |
Victoria Election 2018: Results
Victoria Election 2018: Northern Victoria Region
| Benambra |
|---|
| Bill Tilley (Lib 9.7) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 8.88 |
| Bendigo East |
| Jacinta Allan (ALP 5.0) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 12.11 |
| Bendigo West |
| Maree Edwards (ALP 12.2) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 18.63 |
| Eildon |
| Cindy McLeish (Lib 3.8) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 2.26 |
| Euroa |
| Steph Ryan (Nat 14.5) |
| Predict: Nat Hold |
| Actual: Nat Hold 15.45 |
| Macedon |
| Mary-Anne Thomas (ALP 3.8) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 13.30 |
| Mildura |
| Peter Crisp (Nat 8.0 vs. Ind) |
| Predict: Nat Hold |
| Actual: Ind leads 0.39 |
| Murray Plains |
| Peter Walsh (Nat 22.4) |
| Predict: Nat Hold |
| Actual: Nat Hold 24.04 |
| Ovens Valley |
| Tim McCurdy (Nat 16.6) |
| Predict: Nat Hold |
| Actual: Nat Hold 12.72 |
| Shepparton |
| Suzanna Sheed (Ind 2.6 vs. Nat) |
| Predict: Ind Hold |
| Actual: Ind Hold 5.35 |
| Yan Yean |
| Danielle Green (ALP 3.7) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 16.74 |
Victoria Election 2018: Western Victoria Region
| Bellarine |
|---|
| Lisa Neville (ALP 4.8) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 11.48 |
| Buninyong |
| Geoff Howard (ALP 6.4) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 11.81 |
| Geelong |
| Christine Couzens (ALP 6.0) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 6.22 |
| Lara |
| John Eren (ALP 17.1) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 19.62 |
| Lowan |
| Emma Kealy (Nat 21.3) |
| Predict: Nat Hold |
| Actual: Nat Hold 23.48 |
| Melton |
| Don Nardella (Ind, elected ALP 11.2) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: ALP GAIN |
| Actual: ALP GAIN 4.55 |
| Polwarth |
| Richard Riordan (Lib 10.6) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 5.48 |
| Ripon |
| Louise Staley (Lib 0.8) |
| Predict: ALP GAIN |
| Actual: Lib leads 0.08 |
| South Barwon |
| Andrew Katos (Lib 2.9) |
| Predict: ALP GAIN |
| Actual: ALP GAIN 4.53 |
| South-West Coast |
| Roma Britnell (Lib 11.0) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 2.45 |
| Wendouree |
| Sharon Knight (ALP 5.8) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 10.19 |
Victoria Election 2018: Eastern Victoria Region
| Bass |
|---|
| Brian Paynter (Lib 4.6) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: ALP GAIN 1.80 |
| Evelyn |
| Christine Fyffe (Lib 9.6) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 2.82 |
| Gembrook |
| Brad Battin (Lib 9.0) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 1.07 |
| Gippsland East |
| Tim Bull (Nat 17.9) |
| Predict: Nat Hold |
| Actual: Nat Hold 17.71 |
| Gippsland South |
| Peter Ryan (Nat 15.7) |
| Predict: Nat Hold |
| Actual: Nat Hold 15.30 |
| Hastings |
| Neale Burgess (Lib 7.6) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 1.05 |
| Monbulk |
| James Merlino (ALP 5.0) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 8.63 |
| Mornington |
| David Morris (Lib 12.6) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 5.03 |
| Morwell |
| Russell Northe (Ind, elected as Nat 1.8) |
| Predict: ALP GAIN |
| Actual: Ind Hold 1.80 |
| Narracan |
| Gary Blackwood (Lib 11.3) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 7.23 |
| Nepean |
| Martin Dixon (Lib 7.6) – NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: ALP GAIN 0.94 |
Victoria Election 2018: Western Metropolitan Region
| Altona |
|---|
| Jill Hennessy (ALP 12.6) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 15.47 |
| Essendon |
| Danny Pearson (ALP 8.7) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 15.73 |
| Footscray |
| Marsha Thomson (ALP 14.5) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 28.34 |
| Kororoit |
| Marlene Kairouz (ALP 20.0) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 25.73 |
| Niddrie |
| Ben Carroll (ALP 7.7) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 12.57 |
| St. Albans |
| Natalie Suleyman (ALP 17.5) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 21.59 |
| Sunbury |
| Josh Bull (ALP 4.3) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 14.96 |
| Sydenham |
| Natalie Hutchins (ALP 16.3) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 18.07 |
| Tarneit |
| Telmo Languiller (ALP 14.6) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 18.12 |
| Werribee |
| Tim Pallas (ALP 15.7) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 12.43 |
| Williamstown |
| Wade Noonan (ALP 16.5) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 22.19 |
Victoria Election 2018: Northern Metropolitan Region
| Broadmeadows |
|---|
| Frank McGuire (ALP 27.8) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 30.33 |
| Brunswick |
| Jane Garrett (ALP 2.2 vs GRN) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: Grn leads 0.48 |
| Bundoora |
| Colin Brooks (ALP 12.2) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 17.48 |
| Melbourne |
| Ellen Sandell (Grn 2.4 vs. ALP) |
| Predict: Grn Hold |
| Actual: Grn Hold 1.54 |
| Mill Park |
| Lily D’Ambrosio (ALP 19.9) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 24.91 |
| Northcote |
| Lidia Thorpe (Grn 5.6 vs. ALP) |
| Predict: Grn Hold |
| Actual: ALP GAIN 2.82 |
| Pascoe Vale |
| Lizzie Blandthorn (ALP 16.8) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 8.46 vs Ind |
| Preston |
| Robin Scott (ALP 24.7) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 22.26 |
| Richmond |
| Richard Wynne (ALP 1.9 vs. Grn) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 5.73 |
| Thomastown |
| Bronwyn Halfpenny (ALP 28.4) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 27.94 |
| Yuroke |
| Ros Spence (ALP 18.5) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 20.53 |
Victoria Election 2018: Southern Metropolitan Region
| Albert Park |
|---|
| Martin Foley (ALP 3.0) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 13.22 |
| Bentleigh |
| Nick Staikos (ALP 0.8) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 11.98 |
| Brighton |
| Louise Asher (Lib 9.8) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 0.97 |
| Burwood |
| Graham Watt (Lib 3.2) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: ALP GAIN 3.41 |
| Caulfield |
| David Southwick (Lib 4.9) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 1.82 |
| Hawthorn |
| John Pesutto (Lib 8.6) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: ALP leads 0.20 |
| Kew |
| Tim Smith (Lib 10.6) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 4.64 |
| Malvern |
| Michael O’Brien (Lib 16.3) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 5.97 |
| Oakleigh |
| Steve Dimopoulos (ALP 8.2) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 15.95 |
| Prahran |
| Sam Hibbins (Grn 0.4 vs Lib) |
| Predict: Grn Hold |
| Actual: Grn Hold 7.27 |
| Sandringham |
| Murray Thompson (Lib 7.3) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 0.61 |
Victoria Election 2018: Eastern Metropolitan Region
| Bayswater |
|---|
| Heidi Victoria (Lib 4.6) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: ALP leads 0.35 |
| Box Hill |
| Robert Clark (Lib 5.7) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: ALP GAIN 2.03 |
| Bulleen |
| Matthew Guy (Lib 10.6) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 5.827 |
| Croydon |
| David Hodgett (Lib 9.3) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 2.17 |
| Eltham |
| Vicki Ward (ALP 2.7) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 7.13 |
| Ferntree Gully |
| Nick Wakeling (Lib 7.8) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 1.71 |
| Forest Hill |
| Neil Angus (Lib 4.8) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 1.20 |
| Ivanhoe |
| Anthony Carbines (ALP 3.4) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 12.30 |
| Mount Waverley |
| Michael Gidley (Lib 4.6) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: ALP GAIN 1.46 |
| Ringwood |
| Dee Ryall (Lib 5.1) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: ALP GAIN 2.89 |
| Warrandyte |
| Ryan Smith (Lib 11.6) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 3.94 |
Victoria Election 2018: South Eastern Metropolitan Region
| Carrum |
|---|
| Sonya Kilkenny (ALP 0.7) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 12.28 |
| Clarinda |
| Hong Lim (ALP 15.8) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 17.58 |
| Cranbourne |
| Jude Perera (ALP 2.3) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 11.14 |
| Dandenong |
| Gabrielle Williams (ALP 12.9) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 23.97 |
| Frankston |
| Paul Edbrooke (ALP 0.5) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 9.80 |
| Keysborough |
| Martin Pakula (ALP 11.9) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 14.86 |
| Mordialloc |
| Tim Richardson (ALP 2.1) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 12.97 |
| Mulgrave |
| Daniel Andrews (ALP 4.5) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 12.92 |
| Narre Warren North |
| Luke Donnellan (ALP 4.6) |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 9.76 |
| Narre Warren South |
| Judith Graley (ALP 5.5) — NOT SEEKING RE-ELECTION |
| Predict: ALP Hold |
| Actual: ALP Hold 7.19 |
| Rowville |
| Kim Wells (Lib 8.4) |
| Predict: Lib Hold |
| Actual: Lib Hold 5.60 |
Victoria Election 2018 Final Results Analysis, 29 November 2018
Had we done a full final prediction for this race, we’d have probably nudged Labor at or a little above 50 seats, but not to the level that they actually got. Labor’s landslide has to be a major concern to the local Liberals, for obvious reasons, as well as the federal party that a wipeout may be coming.
This election was a complete disaster for the Coalition in Victoria, and the factional war within it is blossoming, spilling down from the federal drama. (Link: Australian Financial Review) The devastating loss for the Liberals was followed by the defection of a federal Liberal MP, Julia Banks of Chisholm, to the crossbench. (Link: ABC News) It is coming apart at the seams for the Coalition, and it’s difficult not to take a bigger picture view of the political landscape from what happened in Victoria.
On the state level, voters seemed pleased to give Dan Andrews another go, but it was as much about Matthew Guy as it was Andrews. The Liberal candidate in Albert Park said that Guy was “unelectable” while also blaming the party for going too far right and putting together an inconsistent message. (Links: ABC News, The Age) What we witnessed in Victoria was a combination of things: a bad Liberal campaign at the state level, relative popularity of the incumbent government, and lingering irritation by the electorate at the federal Liberal theatrics.
Victoria Election 2018 Analysis, 13 November 2018
Labor remains on track for a majority government, and now we think a larger one than what they have now. This corresponds to a rise in the polls for Labor, who may get a statewide swing of a percent or two. There is little reason to believe at this point that the Coalition is making inroads, and in fact, there’s more evidence to suggest the opposite.
Dan Andrews is a somewhat popular premier, and the disparity between him and Matthew Guy is exacerbated by Guy’s low approval ratings.
Victoria Election 2018 Analysis, 28 October 2018
The opinion polls for the 2018 election in Victoria have been relatively consistent: Labor leading, though not by a lot. In fact, the most recent poll to come out in October showed that on a two-party preferred basis, the 2018 election would nearly match the 2014 edition. (Link: The Age/ReachTEL)
Are we headed for a replay of 2014 with a narrow Labor majority being returned? We’ll know soon as the campaign just kicked off today, and Parliament is being dissolved on Tuesday.
